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Peace in Our Time: Latest delay! October 17, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The DUP not feeling the love.

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1. irishelectionliterature - October 17, 2019

The DUP are in trouble with this.
I wonder was the idea to get a deal that sounded reasonable but was jettisoned by the DUP …and then in a subsequent election have them as one of those to blame for the deal not going through Westminster .

On a local level, could the UUP give the DUP a run in an election? cost them a number of seats?

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WorldbyStorm - October 17, 2019

It does sound like a set up. Though that being the case it is lose lose for the DUP

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2. Joe - October 17, 2019

Last few hours in a negotiation always crucial. Are the DUP holding out for a few extra billions from the UK exchequer? Anything possible.

On the question of the UUP giving the DUP a run in an election. I doubt it. From which angle would the UUP have a go at them – for being too soft or too hard on Brexit and borders and all that?
My guess is that the unionist voters would rally round the DUP like Tipp people round Michael Lowry.

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WorldbyStorm - October 17, 2019

That’s a bit more positive Joe. I like it. John Crace in fine form in Guardian today:

“The only real confrontation came from the DUP’s Sammy Wilson who couldn’t understand why his party’s right to veto any deal with Ireland had not been set in stone. As instructed by the prime minister, Barclay passed him a note with “Will another £5bn shut you up” written in green ink. He looked amazed when Wilson appeared to ignore him and continued to insist that the Belfast agreement – which the DUP had once opposed – be upheld.”

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3. Joe - October 17, 2019

Deal done, apparently. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live

Can the Tory government get the support of parliament for this deal though? As a socialist and an internationalist I hope not. It’s a bad deal for British workers.

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4. CL - October 17, 2019

“These proposals risk triggering a race to the bottom on rights and protections: putting food safety at risk, cutting environmental standards and workers’ rights, and opening up our NHS to a takeover by US private corporations.”-Corbyn

I suppose the question now is will the deal receive enough Labour votes to get it passed.

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5. irishelectionliterature - October 17, 2019

For Johnson, I’d imagine either way he is a winner.
He got a new ‘Better Deal” from the EU and got it through Parliament and goes for an election as the leader having finally delivered Brexit …
or …
He got a new ‘Better Deal” from the EU and Parliament blocked it, he’s forced to get an extension and goes for an election on a People vs Parliament message of ” If you want Brexit , then give me a majority.”

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Joe - October 17, 2019

Yep. Agreed. Very well put iel.

If the Tories end up back in govt over there with a majority after this, I’ll be blaming Varadkar. But then we shouldn’t be surprised when one tory helps out another.

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CL - October 17, 2019

Definitely a victory for Johnson.

Yet Labour might be better off if the deal passes the HoC.
Brexit has sucked up all the political oxygen over the past few years. Support for, and opposition to, has cut across party lines. With the deal done and dusted the Tories again are clearly seen as the party of capital, and Labour the party of the working class. With Brexit finalized, Corbyn is freed from his ambiguous stance, and can campaign in an election on social and economic issues.
Also a done deal will remove a main plank from the Lib Dems, and the Brexit party will fade away, leaving a more clear cut contest between Labour and Conservatives.
The Labour Party will formally oppose the deal as it must, but Corbyn may not impose the whip, meaning that Labour MPs who vote for the deal will not be de-selected at election time. Will this be enough to offset the No from the DUP? We’ll know on Saturday.

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WorldbyStorm - October 17, 2019

That’s a very convincing analysis, to me at least, CL. I think you’re right. This does clear the decks. Of course it has to pass and realistically Johnson will win the next election I would imagine.That said the push back to a better dispensation surely would have to start immediately.

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Pasionario - October 17, 2019

I disagree. If the deal passes, then Johnson will go to the country straight aftewards as the “man who delivered Brexit”, having neutered the threat from Farage, and would win a comfortable majority on 37-40% of the vote.

If the deal does not pass (which seems more likely), then there is chaos. Johnson either resigns, leaving Corbyn to demand an extension as a caretaker PM, or else must request an extension and fight an election in limbo with Farage snapping at his heels, pushing Johnson away from his own deal towards no-deal.

If Labour were to campaign on a clear commitment to a second referendum under those circumstances, they might just pull their chestnuts out of the fire.

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WorldbyStorm - October 17, 2019

That could come to pass, no doubt. But I wonder if there’s a momentum here that hasn’t been before. Let’s put it this way, people want the whole thing dealt with in a way perhaps they didn’t before. It would be interesting to see some polling on public perceptions of the deal. If it’s fairly supportive that might tell its own story.

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CL - October 17, 2019

And let’s remember what happened to Churchill in 1945.

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Joe - October 18, 2019

Yes, CL, there is always hope.

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tafkaGW - October 18, 2019

I concur with Pasionario. I find CL’s analysis unconvincing and unfortunately it replicates that of the red-brown alliance (Spiked, Morning Star, Galloway, Tariq Ali etc, ERG etc.)

Furthermore, after the passing of the deal, remainer morale would be through the floor. And because the large majority of British Labour members and voters are remain, this will have a knock-on effect on the will to campaign and vote. The liberals with probably pivot to a campaign to re-enter or join the EEA and will benefit from a significant remainer protest vote, as will the Greens.

Which is why smarter strategists outside the red-brown front, like John McDonnell, are trying to ensure that Labour MPs don’t vote for it in sufficient numbers for it to pass.

BTW – even Lapavitsas – the pope of Lexitism ( or at least the Archbishop of Canterbury, since this is principally and English thing) – is against this de Pfeffel’s deal.

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tafkaGW - October 18, 2019

Should BJ’s deal be voted down, he will be in a good position to campaign on a ‘vote for me and I’ll get it done through the deal I’ve already negotiated’ / parliament versus “great leader implementing the will of the people” plebicitarian platform in an election if he is forced to get an extension.

I’m not at all convinced that that won’t also deliver him a majority given FPTP voting.

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6. CL - October 17, 2019

““These proposals are not, in our view, beneficial to the economic well-being of Northern Ireland and they undermine the integrity of the Union. Our main route of trade on an East–West basis will be subject to rules of the European Union Customs Union, notwithstanding that Northern Ireland will remain part of the UK Customs territory….
“On VAT Northern Ireland will again be bound into arrangements that the rest of the United Kingdom will not. There is a real danger that over time Northern Ireland will start to diverge across VAT and Customs and without broad support from the democratic representatives of the people of Northern Ireland.”-DUP statement

“Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald welcomed the deal, but added that there is no such thing as a good Brexit…
It was Sinn Féin who first made the case for a designated special status for the north within the EU and insisted on the protection of the Good Friday Agreement and no hard border on the island of Ireland as bottom lines….
“We have also insisted that no veto can be given to Unionism. Ireland’s interests must be protected.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/brexit-reaction-taoiseach-claims-brexit-deal-good-for-ireland-and-north-brexit-being-foisted-on-ni-says-sinn-fein-957827.html

Rationality has prevailed and the island country of Ireland has been treated as one economic entity.
The commercial border has been put in its proper place,-between Britain and Ireland.
But will the mother of all parliaments agree?

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7. Joe - October 17, 2019

Jez’s reaction to this deal, as quoted in the Guardian: ““From what we’ve read of this deal, it doesn’t meet our demands or expectations, it creates a border down the Irish sea and it leads once again to a race to the bottom in rights and protections for British citizens and a danger of the sell-off of our national assets to American companies.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/17/corbyn-refuses-to-confirm-backing-for-second-referendum-on-johnsons-deal

His first objection is the border down the Irish sea! He’s looking for the DUP’s votes in some future Commons vote for PM I suppose.
Roddy, I’m a Jez supporter just like you. Explain this one for me please.

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Joe - October 17, 2019

Oh I forgot. Labour’s deal will involve staying in the single market and a customs union. So, no need for a border anywhere on these islands. Go Jez!

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WorldbyStorm - October 17, 2019

And that’s the fight back.

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8. roddy - October 17, 2019

Jez is opposing the government which is what oppositions do.I have no doubt if he was in power ,a very favourable deal for Ireland would emerge.

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9. CL - October 17, 2019

“The FT estimates 321 MPs could vote against the deal, with 318 supporting it…
Until now the number of rebel Labour MPs talking to Downing Street about supporting Mr Johnson’s deal has been only in single figures — up to nine, who mainly represent Leave constituencies. They are not all certain to back the agreement.”
https://www.ft.com/content/c0c6298c-f0e6-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901

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10. CL - October 18, 2019

“the British Labour Party…dramatic increase in membership has made it the largest political party in Western Europe…
With its position in the party still only half-secured, the Corbyn leadership has faced the challenge of navigating the ongoing Brexit crisis. The tactical expedients that Labour has adopted in response to that crisis have changed from one month (or one week) to another. But there is an underlying set of factors and principles that have shaped those manoeuvres. An accurate description of Labour’s Brexit strategy is a vital step towards understanding how the British political system has arrived at its current state….

Although Labour’s voting base split roughly two-to-one between Remain and Leave, Labour-held constituencies voted Leave in much the same proportions, the most painstaking calculation reckoning that 149 Labour-held seats opted for Leave, against 83 for Remain….

While rational fears of what Brexit could mean under Tory leadership fuelled the wider Remain constituency, it was Blairite holdovers like Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell who dominated the leadership of the People’s Vote (pv) campaign, skewing its political orientation….

The unrelenting focus on Brexit drained attention from the domestic reform programme that was the centrepiece of the Corbyn project. It also put the complexities of parliamentary procedure at the top of the political agenda, when Corbyn’s team would have preferred to engage in campaigning work outside Westminster. Labour was in the uncomfortable position of offering a compromise over Brexit—several compromises at once, in fact—that few people would consider remotely inspiring….
Divisions over Brexit cut across the left/right cleavage in the plp…

after a generation of right-wing hegemony, from Thatcher and Blair to Cameron, May and Johnson, a revived version of social democracy, however cramped it might prove to be, looks more inviting than it did in the Keynesian heyday….
Conservative rank-and-file: an ageing, dwindling and ever-more reactionary cohort, with a single-minded focus on Brexit that is difficult to explain in strictly rational terms.”
https://newleftreview.org/issues/II118/articles/daniel-finn-crosscurrents

So the next British election will be between the youthful, Labour party, the largest political party in Western Europe, versus, the shrinking, ageing, reactionary Tories.
If it happens that Brexit no longer dominates the political space, the Labour party, campaigning on social and economic issues in a Britain ravaged by Tory austerity, cannot be written off.

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Joe - October 18, 2019

Woohoo. Go Jez. If I was in the UK I would be one of those youthful LP members. Jez’s new Britain will be like Tír na nÓg.

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