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The wisdom of this crowd: Johnson Brexit Plan October 18, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Doomed to fail and to pass? Any thoughts?

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1. irishelectionliterature - October 18, 2019

I suspect it will just get over the line. Many wavering MPs will just want it done.

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2. tafkaGW - October 18, 2019

I’m really not sure – Stephen Bush seems to think that they numbers won’t be there. But there may be enough Labour MPs who will fall for the propaganda that Al de Pfeffel’s deal with ‘get Brexit done’.

It won’t of course. This is only a withdrawal agreement. Which BJ wil probably renege on. Every option apart from a third referendum with an outcome for remain will lead to years, probably decades, more Brexshit.

At least one of the compensations if it does pass may be the disintegration of the UK. I find my self strangely on the same page as Roger Cole on that.

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3. Joe - October 18, 2019

It will pass. The ‘get Brexit done’ thing will be the clincher. MPs and people generally are sick of the whole thing. They’ll pass it to be rid of it.
What happens after that? The sun rises the next morning and a luta continua or something like that.

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4. tafkaGW - October 18, 2019

Good intervention here by People’s Vote on how BJ’s deal is being sold as the gateway to No Deal among the Brexiteer head-bangers. It might make a difference among the Labour MPs.

No idea whether this link will work:

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5. tafkaGW - October 18, 2019

Championship-level ploughing this:

What do you reckon, Roddy?

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Joe - October 18, 2019

I was at a ploughing match in west Cork last year. Which makes me an expert in yet another topic. So, nope, that in the video doesn’t cut it, there isn’t a straight line in it.

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6. Joe - October 18, 2019

Anyone hear how Kate Hoey is going to vote? For a tory Brexit or with the DUP and agin (for now)?

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7. CL - October 18, 2019

Will enough Labour MPs defy the party leadership and vote with Johnson? The majority of Labour MPs are pro-remain, but…

149 Labour-held seats opted for Leave, against 83 for Remain….
(Daniel Finn, NLR,118)

Corbyn, it appears is not imposing the whip, but Momentum et al are talking about deselecting those who defect.

“Labour MPs could face deselection if they vote for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal despite Jeremy Corbyn saying he would not use threats to bring his party into line.”
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/brexit-deal-vote-labour-mps-support-boris-johnson-new-eu-agreement-deselection-816626

“The opposition Labour Party is making hay out of the fact that Johnson did away with the “level playing field,” which they see as a first step toward letting the pro-business Tories run roughshod over worker and environmental protections….
Keir Starmer, Labour’s shadow Brexit secretary, warned in a Twitter thread criticizing the deal that it “paves the way for a decade of deregulation” and “gives Johnson licence to slash workers’ rights, environmental standards and consumer protections.”
very little wiggle room for Johnson to get to 320: He needs all the Tories, plus most of the independents and perhaps a handful of Labour MPs as well. If Corbyn whips his party into voting against the deal unanimously and the DUP remains opposed, Johnson will need the votes of nearly every independent MP in the House”
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/10/boris-johnsons-make-or-break-saturday-session-in-parliament.html

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8. Pasionario - October 18, 2019

There could even be a tied vote. Bercow then uses his casting vote against the deal, cue all-out bedlam as Michael Gove seizes the mace and assaults the Speaker.

On balance, my hunch is that it will fail by a few votes as Labour will keep defections to less than 10.

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9. Tomboktu - October 19, 2019

What time is the House of Commons vote (or votes)?

Does the House of Lords need to vote on this?

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WorldbyStorm - October 19, 2019

I’ve no idea to either – I’d presumed on no evidence that it was thus afternoon

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CL - October 19, 2019
10. CL - October 19, 2019

Denouement postponed, decision delayed.

“The numbers tell the decisive role of the DUP. Oliver Letwin won, Boris Johnson lost by 322 votes to 306. The 10 DUP members were on the winning side. (Interestingly the Independent unionist, Sylvia Hermon, a Remainer, was too). But had Nigel Dodds and his nine DUP colleagues voted the other way, Boris Johnson would have romped home by a four vote margin 316 to 312.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2019/1019/1084449-brexit-dup/

“The fact that the DUP’s vote made such a crucial difference to Johnson is one that will not be lost on his key advisers.
But it also presents him with another problem: how can he get a resolution to the Ireland/Northern Ireland problem that keeps both the DUP and the EU happy?
One thing is certain: the DUP was let down by May, betrayed by Johnson and abandoned by their ERG allies.”
-Alex Kane.
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-analysis/alex-kane-boris-johnsons-brexit-setback-means-the-dup-were-lucky-today-they-must-now-tread-very-carefully-38611307.html

“What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power.”-Edward Carson, 1921

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WorldbyStorm - October 19, 2019

Be interesting to see if Johnsons deal will fly in the next couple of days. I think Kane is correct. There’s no real way of squaring the circle. Either the DUP are happy, or the EU/ROI is. And there’s a certain irritation to seeing the DUP clamber abroad the bus of the others. One other thought. Clearly the EU/ROI are heartily sick of all this and only want to get a deal, however ‘hard’ it is as long as the Border and North are sorted. Varadkar’s comments today indicate that. Don’t think there’s any wish to expend political capital on Remain or even soft Brexit forces. Or even a means to do so. And in a sense I wonder have Remainers factored that in? I don’t have any sense from reading what they said today that they do. Indeed it feels like an intra-British political argument rather than one linked to the actual EU.

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CL - October 20, 2019

“While Irish nationalists saw Brexit as a fundamental violation of the Good Friday agreement, now the large majority of working-class unionists who voted for Brexit will not be happy with a deal that hives off Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. In this they have the support of Tony Blair, who opposes the deal because it puts the union at risk….

the message from those in a position to know about grassroots loyalism is that it is very difficult to find anyone who supports this deal and that tensions are high. The DUP’s rejection and promise of a war of attrition in the House of Commons is in part at least designed to keep a lid on this anger.”-
Henry Patterson
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/oct/20/grassroots-loyalists-brexit-deal-sellout-tensions-running-high

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WorldbyStorm - October 20, 2019

Curious analysis. Why wouldn’t the DUP accepting it not be a better strategy, particularly if there is a majority now for the deal in the HOC?

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11. CL - October 20, 2019

“The prime minister says he has ditched the backstop. On the contrary he has accepted the substance of the original Northern Ireland-only backstop which Mrs May said, “no UK prime minister could ever accept”.
Moreover, he has changed it from being a fallback into the definitive future arrangement for Northern Ireland…
If you introduce a hard border in the Irish Sea — a border that will grow wider over time as Great Britain diverges from the EU in terms of regulations and tariffs — then it will be harder for the unionists to maintain their Britishness…
That is why we have heard worrying noises from loyalist groups like the Ulster Volunteer Force and why Arlene Foster has been meeting with the Ulster Defence Association….
The deal we have ended up with means a soft Brexit for Northern Ireland and a hard Brexit for the rest of the UK. In these circumstances it would be understandable if Scotland demanded the same treatment as Northern Ireland, since it had a similar majority for Remain in the referendum…
This Trumpian “great new deal” will therefore not just take Britain out of the EU, but may also mark the end of the union, leaving a Little Englander government ruling a Little England.”-Jonathan Powell.
https://www.ft.com/content/08ae76c2-f197-11e9-a55a-30afa498db1b

“If Downing Street’s calculations are correct and Mr Johnson wins the second reading vote on the Withdrawal Agreement bill on Tuesday, his opponents will then seek to amend the legislation.
The key question is whether there is a Commons majority for an amendment attaching a “confirmatory referendum” to any deal to ensure it commands the support of the public.”
ft.com/content/d4cdb28c-f31c-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654

“Johnson…has managed to edge towards, and possibly beyond, the majority needed to pass his deal…
If the commons approves the deal, the EU would agree to a short technical extension, of a few weeks, to secure ratification of the agreement by the European parliament….
Many UK Remainers have been in campaigning mode since 2016. They are not ready yet to concede defeat. But at least Mr Tusk has decided that it is time to move on to the next stage of mourning, from denial to acceptance.”-Munchau
https://www.ft.com/content/1ab8b440-f1bf-11e9-bfa4-b25f11f42901

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WorldbyStorm - October 20, 2019

I think the EU came to that conclusion a long while back.

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