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And another poll… October 19, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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This from the Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes:

The biggish three?
FG 29% +3
FF 28% -1
SF 16% -4

The smallish four?

IND/OTHERS 9%
GP 6% +1
LP 5% +2
SOL-PBP 3% +2

The rest:

IA 2% -2
SD 1%

Comments»

1. Tomboktu - October 20, 2019

On polls, Stephen Kinsella in UL tweeted a link to this blog post this morning

https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2008/10/10/small-samples-and-the-margin-of-error/amp/

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2. NFB - October 20, 2019

If the Brexit deal was to become law, you’d presume Leo would call it as soon as possible.

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3. Paddy Healy - October 21, 2019

Reliable Behaviour and Attitudes Raw Poll Contradicts IPSOS/MRBI, gives Sinn Féin 17% in Dublin as opposed to IPSOS/MRBI Poll score of 7% given by it last week after it had eliminated undecideds-equivalent to about 5% in a Raw Poll!
B&A Core Support    (Genuine Raw Poll)  Margin of Error   3.3%
Sept FF 22   FG  20  SF 17   Lab2      Ind/others including Greens 15    Undecided 24

OCT  FF 18   FG 21  SF 14   Lab3      Ind/others including Greens 18    Undecided 26

B&A Dublin Only    Margin of error  6.5%      Raw Poll
Sept  FF 21  FG19   SF24   Lab2     Ind/Others incl. Greens  19     Undecided/will not vote   15

Oct  FF 16  FG26   SF17   Lab5     Ind/Others incl. Greens  20     Undecided/will not vote   16

B&A Poorest Half of Population  Categories   C2DE       Margin of Error  5%   Raw Poll
Sept FF 22  FG 17   SF 22  Lab 2  Ind/Others incl. Greens 12       Undecided/will not vote  25

Oct  FF 19  FG 15   SF 19  Lab 2  Ind/Others incl. Greens 16       Undecided/will not vote  28

Note Labour Score of 2 among poorer half of population!
It would appear that the new departure of including a cohort who say “my vote doesn’t matter” by IPSOS/MRBI has biassed its poll 

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Paddy Healy - October 21, 2019

omission above —should read
“It would appear that the new departure of including a cohort who say “my vote doesn’t matter” by IPSOS/MRBI in “undecideds” has biassed its poll”

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4. Paddy Healy - October 22, 2019

I have lost all confidence in IPSOS/ MRBI
These two results cannot be both correct

Behaviour and Attitudes Raw Poll Dublin Only SF 17% Undecided/will not vote 15% After Undecided/will not vote have been redistributed, Final outcome SF 20%
One week earlier

IPSOS/MRBI Dublin Only Final outcome after undecideds/will not vote have been redistributed SF 7%

Dublin only Sample Size 277 Margin of Error + or – 6%
Final Dublin outcome Ipsos/Mrbi 7% B&A 20%

B&A provides Genuine RAW(UNPROCESSED) POLLS on its website banda.ie

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