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Who would have an UK election now? October 23, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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It’s not great for Labour at the moment. Since Johnson took over only one poll has shown a BLP lead and that in July. Currently the Tory lead is mostly 9-15% with a smaller scattering of polls showing 3-4% Tory leads.

ElectoralCalculus has a fairly convincing Tory majority on a sampling of opinion polls. Of course campaigns can change matters but I wonder would Johnson effectively run this one as a purely Brexit campaign. If so the numbers seem there for him. So perhaps Johnson is willing to take that plunge.

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1. Tawdy - October 23, 2019

You see, I’m old, not weary, just old, ok.
While I do admit to being very wary of polls and my understanding of them is quite limited. I still think that too much emphasis is placed on them. A bit like a photo of myself when I was 17, I’m 68 now and the difference is, to be fair, scary.
So I’m 51 years the changes are overwhelming but not unexpected. We can’t remain the same as we were.

I view all polls as an indication as to where we are, just now, not as where we were. A photograph if you like of what has passed on the day it’s taken and will never be reproduced again, or maybe there will be slight variations of it, but never the same.
These polls are not, nor where they ever indicative of the future intentions of anyone polled, they are just a snapshot of what was at that given time.
Sometimes, just sometimes mind you, with variations, they can be attached to an electoral result. The hindsight principle is liberally applied.

I think, remember I’m old and hold these opinions, not strongly, more proof moves my opinions along. But, I think that people, unless they are immediately and closely affected by events are very complacent in their attitudes to voting intentions.
They may get angry, upset, rant, even march in protest, but they will not, for any reason whatsoever, imperil THEIR status quo.
Today they will want Boris or Leo, tomorrow they’ll want another. Whomesoever is placed in front of them really.
There is a very conscience dissonance from the reality of what they want and how to achieve it.
Like the rats or is it dogs that feed when the bell rings.

Polls are our bells.

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WorldbyStorm - October 23, 2019

We live in hope!

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2. tafkaGW - October 23, 2019

I’m a little more persuaded of the hopefulness of the BLP’s approach to the latest phases of B*shit and a future election in the UK.

The leadership seems to have done an honest and skillful job of trying their best to prevent the current lash-up or no deal from going through, and if they tweak their message on Brexit they may be in a position to form a coalition government, but probably only with the SNP and the Greens.

The tweak needed is to make clear that they won’t be starting from scratch in trying to renegotiate a withdrawal deal with Barnier, but can relatively quickly move towards a softer Brexit using elements of positions rejected by the Tories. A three month horizon for that would be good.

And of course they need to make a firm commitment to put anything to a third referendum, including a remain option. A further six months for that, say, promising that withdrawal would be ‘done’, one way or another within a year.

So they could offer on Brexit: “We’ll get phase one negotiated quickly, and will get a trade deal with the EU faster than the Tories ever will, prioritising minimal damage to workers, carers and service uses. And anyhow you get to vote remain in another referendum if you wish within a year of us taking office.”

This pretty much takes the wind out of the Lib Dem’s sails. Also the Lib Dems are in no position to go into coalition with the Tories unless the do to their remain supporters what the Tories did to the DUP. This also makes them electorally vulnerable to being portrayed as a wasted vote, having no viable coalition options.

And a concise, unambiguous and ambitious B*Shit policy might give space to allow the BLP’s many excellent economic policies more room to shine. You never know.

Also Farage seems to be in no mood to row in behind de Pfeffel’s hard Brexit because I guess it isn’t hard enough for real Brexitmen. Or would mean the end of Farago’s career. So the Tory vote could be diluted.

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3. CL - October 23, 2019

“Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn were meeting this morning to discuss a new programme motion, which could see legislation for the Brexit deal brought back to the House of Commons for further debate and votes in the coming weeks,…
Jeremy Corbyn reiterated Labour’s offer to the prime minister to agree a reasonable timetable to debate, scrutinise and amend the Withdrawal Agreement Bill, and restated that Labour will support a general election when the threat of a no-deal crash-out is off the table…
If Mr Johnson and Mr Corbyn agree a new timetable for bringing back the withdrawal agreement for the committee stage and a third reading, they may yet avoid a general election before Brexit is resolved.”
https://www.ft.com/content/34700f4c-e36f-355b-b407-9ddfc3601c0d

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WorldbyStorm - October 23, 2019

Surely Corbyn can’t want a GE at this particular moment. I know the polls went well in 2017 but lightning striking twice… hmmm.

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CL - October 23, 2019

“This morning there was speculation that Labour would throw its weight behind an early election after Richard Burgon, shadow justice secretary, said he wanted a snap poll before Christmas.
But that was not the impression given by Labour’s spokesman after PMQs today, in which he insisted repeatedly that the party could not support an election until a no-deal Brexit is taken off the table altogether….
Curiously, another Labour aide is now saying that the press has “misinterpreted” that briefing. He says that the position is still that once the government has obtained “an extension that removes threat of No Deal during election campaign” then it will pursue an election….”
https://www.ft.com/content/34700f4c-e36f-355b-b407-9ddfc3601c0d

The polls are showing the Tories way ahead, but its unclear if Labour prospects would improve if Johnson gets his deal through the HoC.
The SNP are calling quite vociferously for an election.

What’s most likely at this juncture is a Labour war of attrition against Johnson’s deal if its passage through Parliament is resumed. Given the polls, Johnson would probably prefer an election. So its a dilemma for Labour and there is probably not unanimity within the party for any course of action.

The Labour “party is behind where Michael Foot was in the run-up to the 1983 election, according to the elections expert John Curtice of Strathclyde University – and would result in a Conservative majority of about 60”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/23/why-labour-election-reluctance-goes-beyond-no-deal-brexit-fears

Also at question time today:

“Mr Corbyn questions the Brexit deal’s arrangements for Northern Ireland, saying the prime minister had previously said a border in the Irish sea would “damage the fabric of the Union.”
In response, the prime minister questioned Mr Corbyn’s “sentimental attachment to the fabric of the union between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, when he has spent most of his political lifetime supporting the IRA.” Labour MPs call on him to withdraw the statement.”

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WorldbyStorm - October 23, 2019

Sounds like none of them know what they want to do! British politics in the 21st century – eh?

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CL - October 24, 2019

The Brexit contraption has many moving parts, plus parts that are stalled; it clanks on to some unknown resolution.

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CL - October 24, 2019

Or as John Crace puts it more eloquently:

“Finally, some clarity. After months of pretence, almost everyone in Westminster has abandoned any pretence to having a plan. Now it’s more or less a total mind-fuck. An out of control rollercoaster of parallel universes in which any number of incompatible things can be both true and not true simultaneously.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/23/not-even-boriss-narcissism-can-protect-him-as-cracks-show

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tafkaGW - October 24, 2019

But this is the function of Brexshit, and other right-wing immigration-focused projects: to essentially render the partial / vestigial democracies we have won and managed to retain inactive, by blocking them; in order that capital accumulation and destruction of the bio-systems of which we are part can continue, unhindered by transnational and coordinated national political intervention.

The fundamental idiocy of Lexitism is to imagine this could be in any way liberatory for working class forces.

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4. Alibaba - October 23, 2019

I’m hearing a lot of talk about a “push for a general election”. Johnson needs the support of two-thirds of MPs under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, as distinct from the simple majority the opposition needs to pass a motion of no confidence. Yet there are suggestions Tories could bypass this Act by other legislative procedures “notwithstanding the Fixed-term Parliaments Act”. 

I suppose an election could put Johnson back in Downing Street but without a majority, and a coalition of whatever variant could prevail instead. Moreover, it may overrule any previous legislation and seek to renegotiate a Brexit deal with the EU prior to putting it to a referendum. That may be Labour’s preference, as distinct from those who wish to have a binary choice in a referendum straight away. 

Anti-Brexit activists such as Gina Miller is calling for a general election as soon as possible because “We’ll see day after day of torturous voting” and mentions that she’ll create a “tactical voting website” to advise those who want to stop Brexit.

Labour says it will support an early election, but only once the risk of a no-deal Brexit is “off the table.” That’s a new one to me. Sturgeon says that there must be a “decent, proper period of time” before an election and opposition MPs have previously ruled out holding an election until the possibility of a no-deal Brexit was ruled out altogether. 

Much of the language used takes away the content of any clear meaning to me.

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WorldbyStorm - October 23, 2019

+1. I’m mystified by what the various parties actually want. Does Labour want an election or not? Likewise the SNP? Likewise the Tories. We know the LDs do because this is great chance for them with Remain still fired up.

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Paul Culloty - October 23, 2019

SNP can’t lose at any rate – most polls suggest they could win 50+ MPs, and support for independence is slowly, but steadily increasing even before B-Day.

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tafkaGW - October 24, 2019

No deal for Britain as opposed to NI is really only ‘off the table’, once the transition period is completed successfully without no deal. That on the current timetable is the end of 2020.

During the transition period only one extension is possible and that has to asked for *by the British executive (the legislative can’t force it to ask for one)*

So the only way to take no deal off the table is a) to elect a government genuinely committed to avoiding no deal (the Tories and the DUP aren’t) or b) have a third referendum and confirm the majority remain opinion existing now within the UK.

Does British Labour want an election? Probably not now. It probably should keep the Johnson government in limbo, if possible, so that he accumulates something of a May patina and the Brexit party gains strength.

Whether they can achieve that, I’ve no idea.

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