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That ain’t no party… November 14, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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It’s almost funny reading the accounts of Brexit “Party” candidates and their ire at the great leader’s apostasy. EUReferendum, who would have a greater experience of dealing with the great leader is very restrained in his analysis here. He would hardly human if he didn’t feel at least a smidgen of vindication at how matters have turned out.

But the question does arise, what on earth did people who joined a group which had no representative structures, no membership in any meaningful sense of the word, and a core leadership, of perhaps two or three at most, unanswerable to anyone but themselves actually expect?

This was political astroturfing on a grand scale making some bodies seem like very models of democratic representation by comparison.

But if they only have themselves to blame there are those further afield who lent credence and avoided asking sufficiently hard questions about an operation that sought to project itself front and centre in British politics. A news media which treated it as a party rather than an utterly unrepresentative entity should reflect on itself.

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1. CL - November 14, 2019

“Speaking ahead of Thursday’s deadline for candidate nominations, Mr Farage said: “I said on Monday we would be fighting 300 seats and that’s exactly what we are going to do.”…
Arron Banks, who has bankrolled the Brexit cause over many years, wanted the Brexit party to contest only 40 seats where it stood the best chance of winning its first parliamentary seat….
Mr Banks has claimed that Mr Farage’s position could put Brexit at risk, because pro-EU parties could win the election and bring forward a second referendum.”
https://www.ft.com/content/14321923-cc3a-3e6f-9227-be6d0e1d27fd

“Bishop Auckland, a constituency in County Durham, ..is a barometer for the rest of the north-east of England….Like the wider region, it voted decisively for Brexit in 2016 and has historically been a Labour stronghold in general elections….
But heading into this election the incumbent MP, Helen Goodman, holds a majority of just 502 votes….
Brexit has cut across party lines….
The Liberal Democrats and Brexit Party will hope to turn this constituency battle into a multi-party fight with their positions on Brexit.
But it is vital for Labour to hold on if they have hopes of forming the next government….
For the Conservatives, winning a seat like Bishop Auckland could signal that the party is on course to win a majority in the House of Commons, which Prime Minister Boris Johnson says is vital for delivering Brexit.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tees-50349261

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2. CL - November 14, 2019

John Curtice –

-If the Conservatives maintain their 10 point lead, it’s highly likely that they will get a majority big enough to allow Mr Johnson to get his Brexit deal ratified. However, given the Tories will lose a fair chunk of their 13 seats in Scotland and some others to the Lib Dems in England, he cannot do much worse than that. “The target lead for the Conservatives is probably around 6-7 points. If it falls below that we are looking at a hung parliament.”…

the chances of Labour winning a majority (in the Commons) are frankly as close to zero as we can safely say, given they are utterly incapable of winning anything in Scotland.”…
“The battle in the north is: can the Tories hold on to what they had last time? And will enough Remain Labour voters switch to the Lib Dems?”
https://www.ft.com/content/211bdd2c-06e5-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

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