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Latest UK GE Polls November 18, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

The Guardian Poll of Polls wasn’t updated past the 12th last night. Haven’t had time to check it this morning, but, the Wiki page on UK polls shows three weekend polls that have the Tories opening up a further lead over Labour with 44-45% ratings as against 28-30% for the BLP. The Liberal Democrats are mired on 11-15%, the Brexit Party falling to a very low 4-6%. In a way this consolidation isn’t unexpected. If you want a Brexit with some kind of a ‘deal’, well, then you’re likely to vote Tory. Brexit Party is a wasted vote. Remain and soft Brexit have the BLP and LDs fighting over what is left. As always what is so striking is how the Tories were able to leverage their position by pushing for a much harder Brexit than might have been expected.

Of course these are polls, not the actual election, something may change, actual seat outcomes may be different. And there’s just shy of four weeks to go. But, as of now there’s a huge hill for the BLP to climb.


1. NFB - November 18, 2019

And if these polls do bear out, what does that mean for Corbyn?


2. tafkaGW - November 18, 2019

Don’t pay too much attention to where on the Y(%)-axis the curves lie – because no-one is sure which poll has the best model of a very hard to predict first-past-the-post system. (First past the post is great for horse races but no so good for general elections.)

Instead look at the shape of the curves: Brexit party goes down, Tories go up. Lib Dems and Greens go down, Labour goes up.

Which suggests that Labour is fishing almost exclusively in the Remain Alliance pond. The question is whether the damage done by the Lexiteers within the BLP over Brexit ambiguity; which led to the disastrous outcomes of the European Parliament elections, when the BLP lost a large part of its alliance to the Lib Dems.

The question is, can Labour win these people back, while mobilising the younger vote more than the pollsters take into account in their models? It’s all still to play for.


3. baalthor - November 18, 2019

I wonder what will happen in post-Brexit (assuming it happens) elections ?

If the Lib Dems run on an unambiguous “Re-join the EU” platform, will that give them a unique selling point and electoral boost ?


WorldbyStorm - November 18, 2019

Would that work? The big problem is one adds LD and LP votes it’s still too few. Somehow the LP has to claw Tory voters away. A big ask and I wonder is fatigue and incumbency doing the trick for the Tories?


6to5against - November 18, 2019

Whatever about after brexit, what will the LDs do if there’s a hung parliament? They can hardly back the Tories to drive through brexit without a 2nd vote. But they’ve been busily burning bridges with everybody else…

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - November 19, 2019

I find their role particularly pernicious. They know that what they want is unachievable. yet on they go.


4. 6to5against - November 18, 2019

It’s depressing and worrying stuff, and one thing is clear: this is an election with real choices – A hardening of the anti worker neoliberal policies we have all followed for 40 years, or a swing to the left with a coherent set of credible, progressive policies on offer.
If this election goes right, then I really don’t see any hope for politics in my life time.



6to5against - November 18, 2019

But, more optimistically, one thing the polls are ignoring is the SNP factor. There’s no hope of a Labour majority, but all that’s needed to give progressive politics some hope is a Lab + SNP + a few others majority. Surely that’s more possible?

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - November 19, 2019

That is the logical option. I get that both parties will want to maximise their vote… but what else is there?


5. Dermot M O Connor - November 19, 2019

Glimmer of hope from ICM after that wretched cluster:

CON 42
LAB 32
LIB 13
BP 5

Larger sample size than the previous 3 horrors, and taken over 15-18. Previous ICM had a tory lead of 8, so movement still in wrong direction, but better this than the 14 15 and 17 (ugh) leads.

Liked by 1 person

6. tafkaGW - November 19, 2019

Early days yet folks. Over three weeks to go and a good manifesto expected from Labour.

Labour needs to squeeze the Lib Dems on the impossibility of their Brexit position, as well as getting out the younger vote.

Johnson is a time bomb for the Tories, and I don’t think he’ll get any better for being forced to actually work at an election.


7. Joe - November 19, 2019

Yes to comments 5 and 6. No to pessimism. Trust in Jez. Jez will deliver.


tafkaGW - November 19, 2019

Hm – I don’t the Jez as messiah is going to play such a role this time around. It might have been better to go into an election with a new younger female face, had there been time.

However the entire Labour Party is better organised and the work John McDonnell’s people have done in crafting positive and thought through policies might get through on a wide spectrum of the 99%.


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