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Those by-election predictions! December 3, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Funny listening back to the IT Inside Politics podcast ‘the Toy Show Elections’ examining the by-elections from last week where there were predictions. One interesting diversion from reality.

In fairness they got Fingal pretty well. They argued it was GP or LP but one panelist went with Labour, the other the GP. Dublin Mid-West was no less equivocal – what was clear was the chance of an SF win was just not considered likely at all – it literally didn’t get aired as a possibility. Focus was on FG and Paul Gogarty with Gogarty as the likely winner (btw, interesting observation about him, that it was driving the GP ‘crazy’ that he had stolen their political clothes to some extent), though Pat Leahy thought FG more likely. Cork North-Central, Fianna Fáil were solid favourites. And likewise in Wexford, Fianna Fáil (though Pat Leahy felt there was a chance of an FG win in Wexford but ‘on balance’ FF more likely).

So. Two out of four – kind of.

BTW some talk of Gino Kenny in trouble. That is not good news.

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1. Joe - December 3, 2019

The SF victory in Dub Mid West was the standout. It appears they got the people out to vote in their strong support areas – the local authority housing estates. And fair play to them – to achieve that they have to have built serious local solidarity on the ground. Their new TD sounded like a good bloke from what I saw of him too. We need more like him in the Dáil.

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2. Alibaba - December 3, 2019

Some people think that Eoin O’Broin pulled out the Sinn Féin vote for Mark Ward. Those who noticed the huge turnout from Rowlagh in Clondalkin knew something different was going on.  Ward won over those who don’t tend to vote or who went out for Gino Kenny in the past. It looks like more boosts for SF in the future, assuming the same amount of well-oiled constituency work happens elsewhere and even two SF TDs in DMW, with Kenny unlikely to return.

Also, the much-mentioned ‘wipe out’ of Labour in elections never happened. On the contrary, it increased its vote. 

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WorldbyStorm - December 3, 2019

Yes, I think that’s a key point you make Alibaba – there was a lot of talk on the further left some years back that they were finished. Always took it with a grain of salt, though I think they’ve taken a massive hit as a party and perhaps moved from mid to mid-smaller party status. And DMOC’s point below is interesting too re Wexford as a Labour stronghold. But… they’re certainly still in play as a political force. Amazing in a way.

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Alibaba - December 4, 2019

I’ve always put down Labour Party’s approach to resilience to the fact that trade unions are determined to keep political representation and that means investing time, money and efforts in building it back up. I guess there are core Labour voters who stayed with them despite their shameful record in coalition, but it will not be easy coming back for sure.

Another thought: Though Verona Murphy came second in the by-election and despite her insistence that she will run again in the general election, it simply ain’t so. We know that when the Tánaiste says her language about migrants is unacceptable, when FG director of election campaigns didn’t stand by her, and when FG minister Regina Doherty disputes Murphy’s claim she was the victim of a character assassination. She is a goner. Reactionaries should take note.

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Joe - December 4, 2019

Hope you are right about Murphy. A good sign of FG if they drop her. A very bad one if they don’t.

On Labour and political party comebacks. FG that time under Noonan had a disastrous election. Some said they were in terminal decline. They weren’t. The Greens got zero TDs elected (am I right?) a few elections back. People thought they were history but they’ve come back. Labour will probably make a bit of a comeback from their historic low too. Maybe not much of a comeback this next election though. But who knows? The electorate is fickle, mostly in a bad way. Labour will be back within the next decade as a centrist liberal small wheel in some coalition or other.

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3. Dermot M O Connor - December 3, 2019

Interesting to note that Gogarty would have definitely suppressed the green recovery in DMW.

True about Labour Alibaba; I’m always amazed by how damned resilient these parties are. Labour first prefs%

DMW 6.7%
Fingal 15.2%
Wexford 20%
Cork 9.7%

Still very low turnout could be skewing, but still better than polls would suggest. Wexford a Labour traditionally / Corish / Howlin stronghold though.

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4. kestrel - December 3, 2019

@DO’C, “always amazed by how damned resilient these parties are”, – it’s the Salaries – and near’ religious unions’, vote.
Librarians’ are E40K and E50K per annum. And bureaucrats at loc.auths. etc. will vote, even if it was a snowstorm,.
Black Friday was probably decided on deliberately – the majority of people were at the malls and department stores.
But not the librarians. And they are voting Green also.
I think G.O’D done well. considering.

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EWI - December 3, 2019

I think you might be surprised at how trade unionists – ‘local authority bureaucrat librarians’ and all – actually vote.

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Joe - December 3, 2019

Yep. The librarians of north Clondalkin came out in their droves to vote for Mark Ward.

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Liberius - December 4, 2019

I think G.O’D done well. considering

Eh?!

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5. kestrel - December 3, 2019

they are voting Green. I guarantee you.
Also; might some libraries now be used as part of the ‘300 connector sites’ (5G now, broadband), that is promised.
this ‘climate action plan’, seems to be all about technology, and the reduction, the limiting, and then shortages (as an excuse to eventually increase charges) of esb and iw, usage.
tbh, just seems sinister to me. big brother.

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