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That General Election: Voting Day Open Thread December 12, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Any observations from the coalface whether in Britain or in the North?

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1. sonofstan - December 12, 2019

Visited two polling stations – we moved early last month and I had moved my vote, but never received a polling card at new address, whereas I did get one at the old one. So went to that polling station, to discover I’d been removed from the register there, quick phone call to Leeds City Council to find out where I should be voting, got there to discover my name had been crossed off, but then a list was produced headlined -I’m not joking – ‘names crossed off in error’ – and I was, eventually, able to vote. This was all between 7 -7.20, both stations busy-ish.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

I’m still amazed at the lack of posters

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2. Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

Two desks instead of one for issuing ballot papers in my polling station around 0845, and there was a queue at each of them (normally there’s no queue at the one desk, or at most one person in front of me). Looks like turnout might be up, though that time is also just after people drop their kids to the school next door.

No party officials outside asking how we voted though, which is unusual.

My big, big A4 envelope of election literature will be going in the post tomorrow, including Lib Dem lying bar charts and fake local papers and a couple of “Mogg Out” top hat posters.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

I wonder who high turnout benefits

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Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

In my constituency, I would think increased turnout benefits Labour. It was the Wansdyke constituency until 2010, which covered Keynsham with the old Cadbury’s plant, and a number of old mining towns (one of them elected two Independent Labour Party councillors until a few years ago). The boundary change in 2010 brought in the bit where I live now and made it solidly Tory (lots of picture postcard villages that vote the way you’d expect).

At the last election it was Tories 53.6%, Labour 34.7%, Lib Dem 8.3%, Green 2.3%.

My guess, and it is no more than a guess, is that Rees Mogg has been losing votes every time he opens his mouth (which is why they have locked him in a box for the last four weeks) and people who would normally vote Lib Dem (the city of Bath, which is surrounded by the NES constituency, has a Lib Dem MP) will vote tactically for Labour (the candidate is an ex FT journalist so he won’t frighten the horses or their owners). Add to that some recovery in disillusioned Labour voters who didn’t vote last time and I think there is an outside, but good, chance of Labour winning it.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

That’s good and positive!

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sonofstan - December 12, 2019

Fingers crossed. Mogg and Raab out would be great, Johnson, a very heaven.

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Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

And Umunna, Gyimah, Duncan Smith (very shaky), Johnson (not looking safe: I put a couple of quid on Labour pushing him out), and so many other people.

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Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

And Swinson.

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Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

And Freedland, Behr, Toynbee, …

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Dermot M O Connor - December 12, 2019

Johnson’s too much to hope for, but Swinson losing her seat would be gravy.

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Michael Carley - December 13, 2019

How wrong can you be: Mogg took a 3.3% drop in votes, but still got over 50%; Lib Dems added 13.8% of the vote; Labour dropped 10.5%.

Lot of miserable people at work today.

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sonofstan - December 13, 2019

Crumbs of comfort: Labour held on to all of urban Leeds, and Sobel, my lad, increased his majority and the LDs came third. Not sure why I’m pleased the Tory beat them, but there you are. Also, Steve Baker, who had a 20k majority in Wycombe in 15 had it cut to 4k by Khalil Ahmed, a fine candidate, and local, unlike the London barrister dropped on the constituency back then.

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Dermot M O Connor - December 12, 2019

High turnout = Labour has to be praying for turnout to move the opinion poll dials dramatically I’d guess?

The one thing that’ll falsify those statistical shysters is a cohort of people that they weren’t measuring / modeling.

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3. Joe - December 12, 2019

Onwards to victory a chairde.

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Colm B - December 12, 2019

Voted at 10.30 in old settled working class area of Glasgow. Very few voters, but midmorning is slack time. Only Labour and SNP reps at the gates – only serious horses in my constituency race.

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Colm B - December 12, 2019

My partner just back from voting in same station, now crowded!

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Joe - December 12, 2019

Hopefully crowded with young first-time voters out to vote Labour. C’mon Jez!

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Colm B - December 12, 2019

Nope, don’t think so Joe – crowded with pro-indy voters determined to escape the hell of Tory Britain.

Today Bougainville, tomorrow Scotland!

Confused?…google “Bougainville independence referendum” and you’ll get a bonus of finding out what Bertie Ahern is up to these days.

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

Be interesting to get your take on the Scottish results, Colm.

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4. Joe - December 12, 2019

Oh and by the way, welcome back SoS.

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5. Joe - December 12, 2019

Listen lads. I’m getting excited. I’ve just done a scientific overview of voting intentions, based on my Facebook feed. Yes! Labour in a landslide!

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6. tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

The Tories seem to have gotten their ideal weather, assuming that it’s true that low turnout is good for the Tories. But is that true as their voters get older and older?

Purely anecdotal reports of high turnout from younger people. Wait and see.

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

But that might just be people wanting to vote in daylight. I guess the last 6 hours of (after school, work etc. ) voting are in darkness.

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6to5against - December 12, 2019

Turnout is everything in this election, I imagine. I presume the polls are reasonably precise and that if turnout broadly matches past elections, the Tories will b back in tomorrow and we will be feeding of slim emotional pickings to take any joy from events – such as a few hjigh level losses.

But if the turnout demographics move significantly, its surely all to play for. And, in these last hours, I’m hopeful that the anti-Brexit/anti-Tory feeling will bring out more of the youth than in the past. And at the same time, surely the ‘get Brexit done,’ message is a little slim and uninspiring for many of the Tories – including those who voted remain in 2016.

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6to5against - December 12, 2019

And further to that, wouldn’t it be remarkable if Brexit is pushed through via a Tory win today, despite the fact that countless polls over the last year have shown that there is now an anti-brexit majority in the UK?

How has that not been part of the narrative of the election?

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

Because no-one, including the BLP, chooses to make it part of the narrative.

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pettyburgess - December 12, 2019

If they had made the election into a proxy Brexit referendum, they would have been crushed for the simple reason that the LibDem plus Green irreducible core vote is larger than the Brexit Party plus UKIP one. Plus the fact that Remain Tory voters fear mild social democracy more than Brexit. You can argue that they should have done it on principle no matter what or you can argue that they will be crushed anyway, but people who want them to stand as the Remain Party should at least be honest enough with themselves to understand that it means a guaranteed Tory majority.

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7. Michael Carley - December 12, 2019

I t’s quite easy to list things I “want” from this election. The Labour manifesto promises dozens of policies that would actively improve my life, as well as the lives of many of my family and friends. Even more than in 2017, I enjoy the novelty of a political party actually promising to do things that could make people’s lives qualitatively better, rather than a political party promising “hard choices” that would cut their benefits, make their housing more insecure, and put a price tag on their every thought and action.

But the most honest answer as to what I want from this election is revenge.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/12/what-we-want

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6to5against - December 12, 2019

I wouldn’t disagree with anything you’ve said there, pettyburgess, and you’ve said it all very well.

To some extent my question was rhetorical, but I think that – outside of your v strong points re the political mechanisms – it says something remarkable about the media landscape in the UK that this wasn’t pushed as a story by any source I saw. I literally never saw it get a single mention.

It will interesting to look back on this from the vantage point of 20 or 30 yrs hence – if I get to do so – and see how the history is written. Will the story hold that Brexit was a popular act demanded by the electorate hold, or will that narrative unravel over the next few years?

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8. sonofstan - December 12, 2019

It is, by the way, very cold, and now very wet here in Yorkshire. May affect turnout for those on their way home from work/ uni.

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Joe - December 12, 2019

On the plus side, Leeds are top of the table.

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sonofstan - December 12, 2019

You know everywhere I’ve ever lived I’ve made a point of lending my support to the local team for at least the time I’m there – but I can’t bring myself to go near dirty Leeds. So I’ve been going to see Guiseley FC in the National League North instead….

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Joe - December 12, 2019

Ah here. WBS, I wish to recall my previous message viz “Oh and by the way, welcome back SoS.” 🙂

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9. Joe - December 12, 2019

These reports of queues at polling stations, like never before. Please tell me that’s a sign of hope?

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

If it’s not just anecdotal, sure it is. I continue to live in hope for a few minutes at least.

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10. Joe - December 12, 2019

The young son telling me that the odds on the Tories have been shortening all day and the odds on Labour lengthening. Fookin bookies, sure what would they know?

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Joe - December 12, 2019

The bookies know. Like they knew last week when they closed the book on the Dublin manager’s job because of the flood of money that came in for Tommy Conroy. And Dessie Farrell just got the job. The bookies know diddley squat.

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Liberius - December 12, 2019

From what I know of bookies (not much) they are interested in covering their own arses by slashing odds where the punters are putting their money, so the question is really do you trust the punters?

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11. tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

Novara Media streaming live on Youboob if you wan’t a different take. Ash Sarkar and Grace Blakeley.

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12. Dermot M O Connor - December 12, 2019

Well, fuck. 368 / 190!

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13. tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

Oh dear. I think I’ll have another drink and go to bed.

Fuck you Lexiteers.

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14. WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

Jesus, this is a much worse night than I’d expected. TBH, I’d thought the Tories would solidify their vote because of Brexit, but this is way beyond that.

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stillradical - December 12, 2019

100% agree…utterly depressing.

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15. Colm B - December 12, 2019

If exit poll correct, SNP tsunami in Scotland – 55 out of 58 seats. So that probably means 1/0 Labour, 1/2 LD and 2/3 Tories.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

How could this happen. In a decade the LP has literally shrivelled up and died in Scotland. Got to blame the Blair period, but there’s also a truth that the Corbyn LP just wasn’t reaching back to the parts that had been lost. On a better day an SNP/BLP lash-up would be good.

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6to5against - December 12, 2019

Definitely the Blair years. And the knowledge that the SNP would prob count as a proxy Labour vote in Westminster.
The clamour for Scottish independence will be huge now, with Brexit done by January.
While closer to home, any argument for even mild social democracy will be laughed out of the conversation.
Utterly depressing. Time to curl up into a ball and hide.

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

England and Wales are going to have a depressing five years, but Scotland and the North of Ireland will be interesting.

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Dermot M O Connor - December 12, 2019

Jo Swinson may be gone, good riddance.

God though this is depressing.

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16. tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

Ash Sarkar: “It isn’t called Corbynism it’s called socialism.”

So much for the personality cult.

Also how do you do class politics if you embrace a right-wing project like Brexit, that’s going to swamp them?

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17. tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

It’s a hard right nationalist hyper-neolib Tory party that’s coming.

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18. Stan - December 13, 2019

Lucy Powell on R4 talking abotu the British people rejecting Labour’s ‘offer’. It’s not a fucking offer, it’s socialism.

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