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That General Election: Exit Poll and Count Thread… December 12, 2019

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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The initial results in. And…

Conservatives: 368 – up 51

Labour: 191 – down 71

SNP: 55 – up 20

Liberal Democrats: 13 – up 1

Plaid Cymru: 3 – down 1

Greens: 1 – no change

Brexit party: 0

Others: 22 (18 of these will be Northern Ireland MPs)

Conservative majority of 86.

It could be a very long night. Here’s a guide to some of the key moments from the Guardian.

Comments»

1. stillradical - December 12, 2019

I know this was always likely but f”ck it’s depressing.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

Yep. Can’t disagree.

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2. irishelectionliterature - December 12, 2019

It’s depressing. …. If it’s any way correct then all we can hope for is the DUP losing a few seats.

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

Well, the Tories won’t be beholden to the DUP. That’s the only silver lining I see in this.

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3. Stan - December 12, 2019

Don’t think I’ll be staying up

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WorldbyStorm - December 12, 2019

+1

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ar scáth a chéile - December 12, 2019

off to bed lads tomorrow is another day

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4. Colm B - December 12, 2019

It is depressing but, depending on what happens in the North of Ireland, it is another step in the long decline of the British state. If the SNP figures are correct breakup is now inevitable – its just a matter of timing.

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5. Joe - December 12, 2019

Fuckity fuck fuck fuck.

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6. roddy - December 12, 2019

Would it be ok to tell Britain to feck off from here now?

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tafkaGW - December 12, 2019

By all means.

But the Brits will spend a fair amount of effort on cultivating an Irexit movement in the South.

At least the DUP have no leverage in Westminster.

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7. Starkadder - December 12, 2019

The Brexit Party looks finished and the SNP did alright, if you want two potential silver linings.

Liked by 1 person

8. Colm B - December 12, 2019

Britain? What Britain? Soon it will be “the country formerly known as the UK” or FCUK. Otherwise know as England and (temporarily) Wales.

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Starkadder - December 12, 2019

Behold the new British National Anthem:


This is the land, where nothing changes
The land of red buses & blue-blooded babies
This is the place, where pensioners are raped

And the hearts are being cut, from the welfare state
Let the poor drink the milk, while the rich eat the honey
Let the bums count their blessings, while they count their money

So many people, can’t express what’s on their minds
Nobody knows them and nobody ever will…

This is the 51st state–of the U. S. A.

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Don’t be too previous, Colm. The predictions in Scotland as a result of the exit poll, are more uncertain.

But it’s certainly a gain for the SNP.

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9. Joe - December 12, 2019

So who are the candidates for leadership of the Labour Party?

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Not sure Joe. At least they’ll have plenty of time to decide.

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Kier Starmer odds 3 to 1.

Rebecca Long-Bailey 4 to 1.

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10. Liberius - December 12, 2019

I see the con gains are primarily leave seats, so much for the tak to ficking remain!

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Or, alternatively, had you had a clear remain position from Labour, via a referendum on Johnson’s deal, not some notional new one, plus had Corbyn not been his usual ambiguous self on the issue, Labour might have taken another 5 points from the Lib Dems.

And had Labour fronted with other front benchers and not exclusively on Corbyn… John McDonnell was the person the Tories really feared.

Anyhow, it’s all counterfactuals now.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

Of course the other aspect of con gains is that a good number of of the BLP MPs in those seats have been pro-leave or at the least far from antagonistic to it. After all, if a Dennis Skinner is likely to lose his seat given his well aired views on the EU and the referendum then it suggests that although Brexit has fuelled the momentum away from the LP it is a bit more complex than that.

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Exactly – why vote for Skinner when you can vote for a real Brexiteer in the Tory candidate?

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

+1 And one who would be in government.

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Liberius - December 13, 2019

Remain v Johnson’s deal isn’t the best case scenario, remainers would have been better off with a closer custom union deal, the fact that isn’t obviously to remain fuckwits eludes me. Surely ameliorating Brexit was always the wiser choice post 2016, it might not be the only issue but surely it was important and I think hard core remainers are never going to learn unless they accept that their strategies have been antithetical to the Labour party’s electoral interests. I would agree with GW though that they made an error in going with Corbyn personalism too much, but a more collective style wouldn’t change overcome the arithmetic of the UK electoral map post Brexit.

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Stan - December 13, 2019

Yes. continually telling people how stupid they were for voting leave was never a good look.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

A very very stupid tactic – counterproductive from the off. Also agree w Liberius, the emphasis on Corbyn was excessive

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Look – for the last year Remain has been between 55% and 52% in polling for the last hear. Which pool do you fish in: the one with most fish or the one with fewer?

Having said that, my basic position was that once Brexit was in process then class politics was always going to be swamped. The Tories benefited from that swamping, and were able to monopolise one side of the culture war, and possibly it was never possible for Labour to achieve even a minority government in that context.

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Liberius - December 13, 2019

Isn’t that analogy ignoring that labour needed fish from both pools?

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11. Joe - December 13, 2019

Also. GE in the RoI now. When? February or March at the latest? Ah, Jesus. Fookin tories will win that one too. They always do.

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12. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

When’s the first result in the North due?

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13. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

95% chance Swinson will loose her seat.

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Dermot M O Connor - December 13, 2019

Stupid woman. One bright lining is seeing the LibDems stuck at 15 MPs (hopefully less). A hoot if that orange tory loses.

They had BJ in a vice with the fixed term, exactly where they wanted him, but she believed her own PR / Guardian columns talking up the Libs. Thought she would be PM, FFS.

“My fellow liberals, go back to your constituencies and prepare for … a big disappointment”.

Sturgeon moving for a GE makes tactical sense (see: 55 seats) but it shows how pisspoor the LibDems are that for the second time in a decade they’ve made such a catastrophic error. Sam Kriss wrote recently that they’re not a party, they’re a gas, that expands to fill temporary voids in the political spectrum.

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14. ThalmannBrigadier - December 13, 2019

Corbyn is finished. Its the worst result since 1983.

Jo Swinson possibly gone according to exit poll (she won’t be missed).

Any news from the six counties?

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15. Brian Hanley - December 13, 2019

If true, and obviously still all speculation, this result does have major implications for anyone who thinks of left-wing politics as transformational. Yes the obvious horrendous bias of the media played a role, but if you have a firm grounding in society then that should not be the deciding factor. In 1945, Churchill, a man with more credibility than Johnson, to put it mildly, said Labour would need a Gestapo to administer a welfare state. But the Tories still lost. Of course the British working class and the labour movement were very different things then. The people chanting at Glastonbury are not replacements for the NUM. The UNITE union has over a million members. In the last leadership election Len McCluskey got 60,000 votes (about 12% of the membership voted in all). A lot of what looked like the left’s success under Corbyn was built on a pretty thin basis. Sorry if this seems like pointing out the obvious but I meet a lot of Corbyn supporters in Ireland who think any kind of critical thinking on this subject is treasonous and that if only the Guardian wouldn’t print critical stuff etc etc. The signs were there in 2017 when Labour actually lost six historically strong seats to the Tories- but everyone was blinded by the successes elsewhere. Brexit really put the cat among the pigeons but the problems were there before that. The solution? Haven’t a clue. Just depressed.

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16. WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

This has an interesting thought in its opening lines.

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/12/12/the-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-united-kingdom/

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CL - December 13, 2019

“a Tory landslide in England and Wales”-Gerry Lynch on Slugger.
A Tory landslide in Wales? Probably not.

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17. Starkadder - December 13, 2019

This make a Trump victory in 2020 even more likely.

* Trump and his supporters will be encouraged by the triumph of a
fellow traveller in the UK. (Remember, Steven Bannon’s been in regular contact with Johnson).

* The Democrats will see Corbyn’s failure as a sign they should jettison Sanders and tack desperately to the centre again.

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Starkadder - December 13, 2019

Sorry, that should read – “Many activists will see Corbyn’s failure as a sign they should abandon Sanders and back a centrist instead- Warren, Buttigieg or (shudder) Biden”.

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Dermot M O Connor - December 13, 2019

Trump 2020 very likely. Electoral college is on a 50/50 wafer, and I expect him to be re-elected. As some know I’m based in Portland Oregon, I expect people hereabouts to go fucking batshit insane when that happens.

5 more years of Johnson, and 5 more years of Trump.

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CL - December 13, 2019

At least there’s some push back against Trump with a Democratic controlled House of Reps.
In the UK the Tories now control the executive and the legislature, giving Johnson close to dictatorial powers.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

Yep, that’s a very good point

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18. CL - December 13, 2019

Chi Onwurah, Labour, re-elected, Newcastle on Tyne, majority 12,000.

Labour also win Sunderland South.

Cons win Blyth Valley-huge swing against Labor.

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Stan - December 13, 2019

Interesting piece of context on Blyth valley in a Guardian comment:
“Ronnie Campbell has been losing votes for Labour in Blyth Valley ever since 2005: In 2010 BNP and UKIP were neck and neck on 1,700 votes. UKIP’s support swelled to over 8,000 in 2015. Apart from a few hardcore voting BXP (3,400) yesterday the remainder of these nutjobs have folded into the Tory party. Did Campbell ever fight this right-wing tendency?”

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19. Starkadder - December 13, 2019

Roddy and EWI may be interested to know that as of 12.03 , the words “United Ireland” are trending on Twitter.

I’ve never considered myself an Irish Nationalist or an Irish Republican, but I would gladly support an UI rather than let the inhabitants of the Six Counties suffer under a hard-right government.

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20. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Well Brexit is going to happen. And the EU are probably better off without the country that has consistently driven the neo-liberal direction of the EU.

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21. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

John Finucane within 100 votes of Dodds apparently.

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22. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

North Down looking good for the Alliance.

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23. tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Berlusconi has come to Brexitania.

Oíche mhaith.

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24. Lamentreat - December 13, 2019

Looking at it on a European scale, this is a disaster. Britain is now by far the largest country to fall to far-right nationalism, much bigger than Poland or Hungary. There’s now going to be 5 years of a government which is considerably to the right even of the short Italian Liga/M5S coalition. It’s not just a Conservative victory, it’s a victory for a purged, radicalized, brutal, hypernationalist party. Parties like the AfD will be celebrating the victory of their kin.

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tafkaGW - December 13, 2019

Yes and no. I agree with your characterisation of the current rabble of Tories. But the self-ejection of the UK will make it politically and economically less powerful, probably an adjunct of a chaotic Trumpist USA, and will get rid of won of the major allies of the nationalist right within the EU.

So for the rest of Europe, not such a disaster, providing Barnier stays healthy and sticks to his line in the upcoming exit negotiations.

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Lamentreat - December 13, 2019

yeah you’re probably right about a v r-w Tory govt not having that much impact on Europe in a practical sense, god knows what a wreck of a country they’ll produce, and other than expelling all EU citizens and their army, they don’t have much leverage over the EU.

What bothered me more was the fact that Britain, in or out of the EU, is still a European country. The march of the far right into govt in European politics (Hungary, Poland, Austria, Italy for a while) is not stopping, and the fact that it has happened now in the largest European state so far, with 5 years in power secured, deepens and intensifies that trend.

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25. ThalmannBrigadier - December 13, 2019

Finucane possibly will take North Belfast by less than 1,000 votes.

Foyle – win for SDLP. They’re also closer than most people thought in South Down.

No word from Fermanagh South Tyrone

I’m off to bed

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

North Down for Alliance – well well well !

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

Funny to see Peadar Toibin on television for Aontu in the north!

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

And Nigel Dodds gone! Fair dues to SFs John Finucane – an amazing response – a Portillo moment!

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makedoanmend - December 13, 2019

I really don’t care that Dodds is gone or that SF picked up the seat.

I’m just absolutely delighted for John Finucane and his family.

They can rightly take some small satisfaction from their victory. Well done and much respect for their tenacity in the face of adversity.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

+1

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26. Miguel62 - December 13, 2019

Putney a rare Labour gain from Tory. Formerly Justine Greening’s seat.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

A bright spot

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Dermot M O Connor - December 13, 2019

BBC’s seat projection slightly less awful than the Exit poll. At least would be nice to get above the psychological 199.

BBC Forecast:

Con 357
Lab 201
Lib Dems 13
SNP 55
Plaid 4
Green 1
Brexit 0
Others 19

Bright spot seeing the Libs come to naught, and SNP success.
Hopefully the DUP will have manners put on them also.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

Dup looking fairly shaky, POSs down two.

Yes 200 plus not unimportant but still a shambles.

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27. Pasionario - December 13, 2019

A few immediate thoughts:

1. Corbyn is a decent but severely limited politician. Any leader who’s going to win from the left will have to be bullet-proof in terms of their past associations and statements. That person will also need to be endowed with a very high level of charisma. And that person doesn’t exist in the current PLP.

2. The split between the left and centrist liberals is fatal. Neither can win without the other. This is a crucial for the upcoming US election. There seem to be dozens of seats where the Lib-Dem/ Green/ Plaid Cymru vote pushed Labour out (or vice versa). Both Labour and the Lib Dems went for broke and claimed they could win independently. Not so in a right-leaning country.

3. The Tories got on the right side (politically speaking) of the era’s defining issue. Labour was inevitably torn in every direction on Brexit, and I don’t see how they could have resolved the problem. If they’d come out firmly in favour of Remain, the rout in the North might have been worse. As it is, their perceived Remain credentials helped them in some places.

4. Reports of the UK’s imminent demise may be exaggerated. Independence for Scotland is going to be a hard sell in the wake of Brexit, as it risks adding chaos to chaos. Irish Unity looks more doable at this point. Time to start seriously planning for that eventuality and trying to get at least some Unionists on board.

5. I don’t see any silver-lining here. But an England where Labour hold Canterbury and Putney while the Tories hold Bolsover and Wrexham is a strange and bleakly fascinating place. We have a Brahmin Left and a Merchant Right backed by a nationalist working class. It seems more and more like America.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

A lot I’d agree with in that – not least that on the numbers any left project needs to capture temporarily or permanently people outside its comfort zone. There’s no way around that that I can see and it is going to create limitations on the achievable in the short to medium term. I was always leery re the over emphasis on Corbyn, 2017 part worked because May was much worse. But Johnson for all his faults was always a more fluent politician (and oddly more engaged, Corbyn for all his strengths never seemed fully exercised by issues he didn’t much care for or about – exhibit A: Brexit in 2016) and Teflon coated in a way Corbyn wasn’t. All that said it will be important that the renewed emphasis on public and social ownership etc can survive in a post Corbyn era of the LP. I certainly hope so though given Brexit and the shambles the UK faces into in the next decade you’d have to wonder how much scope there really was for change given the storm clouds.
And where next? I’ve been dipping in and out of histories of the LP across the Thatcher era. Electorates are volatile but this Tory majority may take a good while to whittle down. Or perhaps the contradictions of the Tory project under Brexit will work the other way and quickly.

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28. makedoanmend - December 13, 2019

Lordy, lordy, Belfast now has 2 SF and 1 SDLP representatives, and Naomi Long just missed out in East Belfast for the Alliance.

Strange days indeed.

And why are you people not in your beds? Have you no work to go tomorrow you political junkies?

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

Mad isn’t it? Some night in the North.

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29. CL - December 13, 2019

Its is now certain that the UK will withdraw from the EU on Jan 31st, so in that sense Johnson kept his promise and is ‘getting Brexit done.’ There will not be another referendum.
The difficult business of re-negotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU can then begin; in this sense ‘Brexit’ will probably never end.

Corbyn kept his ambiguity on Brexit to the end, and so there was a massive swing to the Tories in traditional Labour strongholds; Labour’s commitment to a sensible social democratic program was not enough to hold the ‘red line’.

One in three voters opted for Labour, but it was still a catastrophic defeat. Argumentation and recrimination have already begun.

In a post-Corbyn Labour party will Blairite neoliberalism stage a come-back? Or will that failed ideology remain in the dustbin of history?
Will the Johnson scam of ‘One-nation Toryism’,-conflating the interests of the predator with that of its prey, -prevail?

In the face of Tory intransigence will the Scottish people begin to look favourably on UDI?

Will ‘Loyalism’ having failed everywhere beginning with the American revolution make a last stand in ‘Ulster’?

Will right-wing reaction continue to metastasize in the body politic?

How will the Irish power structure respond to a Trump-Johnson axis on trade and political economy?

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Colm B - December 13, 2019

The only way to open a door to a just and equal society in Scotland is through independence. The battle lines are now clearly drawn. Socialists have a choice – irrelevance or at the heart of the struggle for self-determination.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

+1

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Lamentreat - December 13, 2019

+2, but god help the English left then.

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WorldbyStorm - December 13, 2019

I’m gutted for ordinary working people in England by this result but in retrospect there’s a sort of inevitability to it. That’s probably overly simplistic as well as deterministic, but… I keep running through the permutations as to where a different route might have been taken and I can’t see one that wouldn’t have wound up more or less here given the Tories in power. So in a way the project for the English is to get out from Tories and to rebuild a commonality of approach. It’s going to be difficult.

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30. oliverbohs - December 13, 2019

One Labour seat in Scotland. A gain of one from 2015, mind.

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Colm B - December 13, 2019

Yep, Ian Murray, anti-corbyn blairite, ultra-unionist. A sad but fitting end to the Scottish labour party.

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31. sonofstan - December 13, 2019

It’s grim looking at the map – a sea of blue apart from the cities, which suggests England is channeling the US – urban, educated, diverse cities with older universities and a richer population vote one way, poorer, older whiter smaller cities and towns another. Some voices in Labour will now go looking for Workington man again, and forget that Women in Peckham are just as real.

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32. Pasionario - December 13, 2019

The SDLP taking Foyle back from SF on a massive swing is interesting. What happened there?

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33. Joe - December 13, 2019
34. ar scáth a chéile - December 13, 2019

An earlier comment on this thread said that a future leftist leader will need to have a bullet proof history to have any chance of winning. Looking at how the corporate media and BBC have operated in the campaign ( and today …see nasty piece by Toynbee in Guardian ) , i dont think it matters how squeaky clean a left leader is , stuff will be just made up or grossly exaggerated ( eg the antisemitism charge ) and uncritically regurgitated ad nauseum. These media are the enemy and a key for success of a genuine left challange will be how to counter their propaganda power.

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