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The wisdom of this crowd… Party support levels at the next ROI General Election January 13, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Any thoughts on support levels, either percentages or seat numbers for parties at the next election. This is something we could do a couple of times before that event, but I’d be interested in what people think at this point outcomes might be likely to be.

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1. Joe - January 13, 2020

As the record shows, I’m very good at this sort of thing. The JezLabour landslide (TM).

So I’ll tell you now what’s going to happen. Enough of the public are sick enough of 9 years of FG government to be wanting a change. Enough of them will vote instead for FF to give FF about sixty (60) seats in the election. FF will form the next government, in coalition probably with the Greens and maybe Labour and/or the SDs. With the support of some indos.

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1729torus - January 13, 2020

Can’t see FF going so far above 30% that they’d get 60 seats.

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2. 1729torus - January 13, 2020

Labour will not get more than 6 seats.

The Green Party will get around 6 seats if the polls are right. Their three sitting TDs will be reelected.

SF will probably get around 18 seats. They seem to have sorted out their issues.

FG will not pick up any more seats thanks to Charlie Flanagan, but FF won’t necessarily be the ones who benefit.

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3. irishelectionliterature - January 13, 2020

FG to lose a good few seats, FF won’t make too many gains as an election campaign will focus on FG and FF just bickering.
Greens will win around 15 seats.
Labour maybe 6
SF around 18
Solidarity/PBP/RISE will lose 2 seats.
Independents roughly the same.

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4. sonofstan - January 13, 2020

I think Labour could pick up an extra seat or two. Aodhan in DBN, maybe Kevin Humphreys? FG could easily lose one there.
6 Greens is about right.
6 PbP/ Solidarnosc/ Rise and Follow Paulie.
SF about 18
SD 2 (outside chance of 3)
Sundry Indies – 14 ish (can see a few losses – Maureen O’ Sullivan?)
Leaves about 105 seats for FF/FG and. like Joe, I can see FF coming out of it as the bigger party.

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5. Joe - January 13, 2020

People saying SF will get about 18 – that would be a disappointing drop for them. And leave them kind of marooned.

Meanwhile Boxer Moran has his cake and eats it too. And Finian and John leave us wondering.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0113/1106101-independent-alliance-election/

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WorldbyStorm - January 13, 2020

Interesting – I did this before Christmas.

6LP
6GP
4 left ind
8 right ind
3 pbp/sol/rise
2SD
18 SF

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Joe - January 13, 2020

So the next govt. will be an FF/LP/GP lash up or an FG/LP/GP lash up.
Fook’s sake. Half the fun is gone out of the election for me already.
There appears to be zero hope of any advance for the further left. As you were is the best that can be hoped for.
Right populist racist independents might be ones to watch – Casey in Donegal, Grealish in Galway, Murphy in Wexford?

Still. Elections. You never know. A wind behind the GP or SF or even the LP or SDs might make it more interesting.

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ThalmannBrigadier - January 13, 2020

“People saying SF will get about 18 – that would be a disappointing drop for them. And leave them kind of marooned.”

Drop in the polls compared to 2013 – 2016 and local issues in a number of constituencies. Tbh they’d be happy with 18. On a bad day they could wind up with 12 – 14.

Definite losses:
Carlow-Kilkenny

High Probability Loss:
Cork East
Cork South Central
Dublin Fingal
Dublin Mid-West (2nd)
Laois-Offaly
Louth (2nd)
Limerick City
Wicklow

Toss-Up
Kerry
Dublin North West
Dublin Bay North

On a good day they could pick up a 2nd seat in Donegal. Possibly Dublin West and Meath West as well.

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WorldbyStorm - January 13, 2020

yeah, it’s a tricky one. Halligan not standing in Waterford, if rumours are to be believed is good for them though. That said the by-election suggests that their vote is stronger than sometimes thought.

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Joe - January 13, 2020

Can’t see them not retaining the seat in Fingal. Don’t really know enough about the rest. Maybe change the second heading there to “Possible losses”.
I actually met Kathleen Funcheon through work a few years back. A decent woman. Always a stretch for them to keep a seat in Carlow Kilkenny. If they lose it, who’ll take it – FF? FG? Labour?
That’s really the question though isn’t it – if SF lose seats who’ll take most of them. Probably FF? So FF-led government.

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Liberius - January 13, 2020

Don’t agree Joe, on the basis of the by-election result I’d suspect Dean Mulligan will be level with or slightly ahead of O’Reilly after the first count and then stay ahead due to being more transfer friendly, whether that is enough to get him elected when she is eliminated I’m far less sure of.

So for me Dublin Fingal will be Joe O’Brien (GP), Darragh O’Brien (FF), Duncan Smith (LP), Alan Farrell (FG) and one of Dean Mulligan (I4C), Lorraine Clifford-Lee (FF) , Louise O’Reilly (SF) or James Reilly (FG) with Mulligan and Clifford-Lee being more likely than O’Reilly or Reilly (who looks like a dead weight for FG).

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Joe - January 13, 2020

Thanks Liberius. Just that Louise O’Reilly wasn’t the candidate in the bye election. She has had a good media profile for SF (although not so much more recently?). And she strikes me as a serious politician and I’m guessing a hard enough working constituency TD.
So I’m sticking my neck out against your local knowledge Liberius and saying she’ll take a seat.

Nice to have that overview of Fingal. Any farther left candidates there does anyone know? Solidarity or PbP?

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Liberius - January 13, 2020

She does have that larger profile, but their by-election candidate only managed 5.3% as against the 8.7% O’Reilly got in 2016, and that was with Mulligan getting 10.2% (2016: 15.7% for Daly, 4% for Barry Martin and 3.4% for AAA). Even accounting for turnout I don’t think the SF vote held up very well given how many votes were in the wild, so that higher profile will have to be doing some serious work, and remember this is a relatively young and changeable electorate.

On Solidarity and PBP, I haven’t seen anything, the fact neither ran in the by-election where there was an opportunity to establish a candidate might be a clue they won’t run but we’ll see.

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Joe - January 13, 2020

Thanks again, Liberius. O’Reilly only got 8.7% in 2016? Did really well to get a seat with that first preference.
Any chance FG will struggle? Farrell has had a bad press re expenses. And Reilly, as you say, seems to be a busted flush. And is the Labour seat a given?

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Liberius - January 13, 2020

Certainly not a given that FG will hold Farrell’s seat but I think they should have enough votes for one, Farrell is one of the more visible of the incumbent TDs, I’ve seen more posters for him advertising meetings in the last 4 years than for anyone else so I’m thinking that will save him from bad press, but yes it is possible that if the FG campaign goes badly they might not keep that seat. Numerically Farrell got 12.4% and Reilly 7.7% in 2016 with Reilly only picking up 14.8% in the by-election.

On Louise O’Reilly in 2016, lots of transfers to work last time, many of the candidates like clifford-Lee and Joe O’Brien who were behind will be ahead this time as well.

As to Labour, the green victory in the by-election obscured an increase on 2016 for them, 15.2% v 10% so I think barring some sort of catastrophic campaign it should be secure.

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irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

Regarding Solidarity running a candidate, it appears that a number of the SP in Dublin Fingal went with the new group CWI Ireland in the recent split. PBP not particularly strong in that neck of the woods either.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

That’s great stuff, Liberius and IEL, Thanks.
And thanks Gearóid Clár for teeing up our discussion on Limerick city. Adrian Kavanagh has the following confirmed candidates:
Limerick City (4 seats): Senator Maria Byrne (Fine Gael), Senator Kieran O’Donnell (Fine Gael), Deputy Willie O’Dea (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. James Collins (Fianna Fáil), Deputy Maurice Quinlivan (Sinn Féin), Deputy Jan O’Sullivan (Labour Party), Cllr. Brian Leddin (Green Party), Michael Ryan (Aontú).
I note also from Adrian Kavanagh that Cian Prendiville who was the serious AAA/Solidarity hope down there for a few years, that he retired from politics for personal reasons a couple of years back. I wonder will Solidarity have a candidate this time?
I know next to nothing about how things will go down there but best guess would be it’ll end up 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 SF with the shock, if there is to be one, coming from the Green (maybe at Labour’s expense?).

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Gearóid Clár - January 14, 2020

Why do you say Limerick City is a high probability loss?

I would have said Maurice Quinlivan was safe. He is popularly locally and came second in 2016 (nobody but the defaming O’Dea got in on the first count);

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ThalmannBrigadier - January 14, 2020

Very poor local election in Limerick last year. SF did manage to scrape two candidates on the last count in Quinlivan’s base in north Limerick. Boundary changes also affect his vote.

I don’t get the fondness for Louise Reilly. Tbh I think she’s one of their poorer performers

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Paul Culloty - January 14, 2020

Hard to see them holding Kerry – Pa Daly is a weak candidate, who didn’t even distinguish himself in Tralee in the local elections, so the second candidates of either FG or FF will prevail.

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6. CL - January 13, 2020

‘The past is a foreign country’. In Ireland, literally so.

As this last week has shown its difficult enough to discern what has happened in the past. What did just happen in the last week anyway?

Its fun to speculate as to the election outcome, but because it takes place in the future its unpredictable.
How much extra votes will Fine Gael garner from its effort to replace Amhrán na bhFiann with The Gentle Black and Tan?
Will Fianna Fail’s promises to fix the housing and health care crisis seem plausible, or be seen as a sick joke?
Will the impending climate catastrophe help the Greens get the blueshirt bicycle vote?
Will the Labour party be able to peep over the rim of the dustbin of history?
Will Sinn Fein, will Sinn Fein…whatever?

To get some answers we’ll just have to wait for the polls.

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7. ThalmannBrigadier - January 13, 2020

“People saying SF will get about 18 – that would be a disappointing drop for them. And leave them kind of marooned.”

Drop in the polls compared to 2013 – 2016 and local issues in a number of constituencies. Tbh they’d be happy with 18. On a bad day they could wind up with 12 – 14.

Definite losses:
Carlow-Kilkenny

High Probability Loss:
Cork East
Cork South Central
Dublin Fingal
Dublin Mid-West (2nd)
Laois-Offaly
Louth (2nd)
Limerick City
Wicklow

Toss-Up
Kerry
Dublin North West
Dublin Bay North

On a good day they could pick up a 2nd seat in Donegal. Possibly Dublin West and Meath West as well.

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alanmyler - January 13, 2020

I’d give them a good chance in Meath East too.

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8. Alibaba - January 13, 2020

The predictions of Harry McGee:

‘Fianna Fáil and Greens appear to have advantage … and (less so) Labour.

The Social Democrats might double their numbers (with Dublin Central and Dublin Bay North being their biggest chances).

Independents and small left-wing parties will be a diminished presence in the 33rd Dáil.

These outcomes will depend on sometimes tiny margins on the 12th count which no poll can ever capture.’

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/harry-mcgee-it-looks-like-advantage-fianna-fáil-and-the-greens-1.4129664

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9. Colm B - January 13, 2020

The Greens will get anything between 10 and 20 seats. The urgency of climate change will translate into votes regardless of the fact that they are, with a few honourable exceptions, a bunch of neoliberal shysters who would happily abandon any core principle for a few ministerial seats. I think the radical left is likely to lose seats, squished between SF and the greens. Hope I’m wrong but that’s what it looks like from this juncture.

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10. roddy - January 13, 2020

Expect a media onslaught against SF which I fear could cost the party seats.

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roastedsnow1 - January 14, 2020

It can’t be any worse than before. Being in govt in the North is a great start to this campaign. SF need to push the Deputies who achieved meaningful change despite opposition, O’Broin and Doherty. Imagine what could be achieved if in government. Be positive!

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11. Dermot M O Connor - January 14, 2020

FF/FG each get 53 seats all hell breaks loose.

That would muck up their neat little shinner-stuffing exercise.

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12. makedonamend - January 14, 2020

Interesting. I was home recently reconnoitering my return. I can certainly see a decline in the Northwest and Northeast economically when compared the to tiger years since I left. Homelessness is a big issue. Lack of health care ia a big issue. Shitty jobs and stagnant wages are big issues. Some declining infrastructure is a big issue. So many issues….

I understand that political forums will inevitably focus on parties. I like to do so as well. It’s both interesting and instructive. Yee also get to let off a bit of steam, so to speak.

I understand that SF’s results are important and interesting. There are voters who for their own good reasons hate SF, and there are some people who like that our island is divided on a sectarian basis. For so, so many voters the nationalist people of the North just don’t exist. So be it.

But I can see why the civil war parties, despite awful politics and policies throughout decades of misrule, still rule the roost; and probably will for my lifetime.

What I’m not seeing yet (and hopefully it will come) is some left leaning political candidates from any party who will articulate a few substantial policies and ways of implementing them. I don’t need is a party of purity nor some comprehensive program. Highlight one big issue, say housing, and campaign hard to get that policy implemented. Whatever it takes. Keeps banging the drum and overcoming the obstacles until affordable homes owned by the nation are built.

In the meantime, I think SF will win 162.5 seats in Leinster alone. They will declare Tyrone, Fermanagh and Derry as a new nation, but Derry will quickly break away because the Tyrone football team beat them once again.

Or more people will become homeless, more people will die early, more wealth will be concentrated in the hands of the rentiers…

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WorldbyStorm - January 14, 2020

Yeah, that’s a sound point. I’ll be honest, I’m pessimistic re options for change.

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rockroots - January 14, 2020

Don’t think I’ve ever been less enthused about an election. Parochial independents will probably do better than expected in rural areas for exactly the reasons you mention, but as long as we can be side-tracked into protesting more about events 100 years ago than about the health, housing or climate crises of today, what’s the point? Agreed, I’m starting to accept I’ll never see a left government in Ireland. It’s even possible I might never get around to learning the guitar and pushing the boundaries of psychedelic rock. Must. Dream. Smaller.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

“It’s even possible I might never get around to learning the guitar and pushing the boundaries of psychedelic rock. Must. Dream. Smaller.”

Excellent RR. Made me laugh.

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WorldbyStorm - January 14, 2020

Can I be in the band?

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rockroots - January 14, 2020

You can! I’m scheduling a first rehearsal for July 2028, but it’s provisional.

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WorldbyStorm - January 14, 2020

I’ll be there – I’ve a keyboard to add to the psychedelic sounds

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13. Pasionario - January 14, 2020

Since the boom has been getting boomier of late, I think FG will at least hold their current seat total. FF ought to add a few here and there. SF will drop some, as will the left-wing parties. The Greens will have a modest bounce to 10 or so. Labour and the SDs will tread water. And Indos will lose out all over the place.

In sum:

FG — 54
FF — 50
SF — 18
Greens — 10
Lab — 6
PBP/Sol/Rise — 3
SDs — 2
Indos — 15

FF, SF, and the Greens then form a rainbow government, possibly with Labour, or else propped up by a few Indos.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

My mole at the heart of FG has been bigging up their plans and prep for their campaign. Apparently the blame for their last one is that Noonan was over the hill and not as good on the figures as he once was and that Enda was never good on figures. This time they’ll have Donohoe and Bruton and the like putting the messages across strongly and coherently blah blah.

But to me their campaign slogan is shite for starters – “a future to look forward to”. I mean it’s so easy to hit back with ‘yis have been running the show for 9 years and now you’re saying you’ll sort it all… in the future’. FF’s “an Ireland for all” is far better. Chimes with Jez’s ‘For the many not the few’.

I passed through Edgeworthstown Co Longford last week. I didn’t get any feeling of a boomy boom. The place is full of closed businesses. Other towns around the country are the same. I’d say Leo is going to get the same reaction as Enda did the last time. People are very hard to please, no matter how much you do for them!

So I disagree with you P. I think FF are going to outscore FG by about 10 seats this time.

Also there can’t be an FF-SF lash-up cos Martin said he wouldn’t.

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Pasionario - January 14, 2020

Now I see, the total number of Dail seats has increased to 160. So I’ll give one more each to FG (55) and FF (51).

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14. Pasionario - January 14, 2020

I missed that about Martin. But this is FF! Surely they could wriggle out of that commitment, particularly if the alternative is propping up FG again (would the backbenchers even stand for that?).

As for the boomy boom, unemployment is below 5% and wage growth is finally picking up again. That ought to help the Blueshirts a bit, even if rural areas seem depressed.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

Yeah, you’re right. Both FG and FF have said they won’t do a lash-up with SF. But this is politics. All will depend on the numbers after the election. Anything is possible.

And yeah there is a bit of a boomy boom. But my gut is people will say we’ve had 9 years of tweedledee so now it’s time for tweedledum.

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