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The end of a glorious political era! January 14, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Kevin ‘Boxer’ Moran, the Minister of State with responsibility for the Office of Public Works (OPW) has announced he is leaving the Independent Alliance.In an interview with Shannonside Radio on Monday the Longford-Westmeath TD said he will be standing in the next election as an outright Independent, rather than under the banner of the Independent Alliance.

And so:

The Independent Alliance was set up principally by Minister for Transport Shane Ross before the last election and was Fine Gael’s main coalition partner for the last four years.

It currently has four Ministers: Mr Ross, Mr Moran, Minister of State for Disability Issues Finian McGrath and Minister of State for Skills John Halligan.

The piece notes that McGrath and Ross may run again, but, Halligan is likely not to. And therefore – wait for it:

It effectively means the Independent Alliance has come to an end.

Say what one will about the substance, and I’m sure we’ve all a lot to say about that, but in some ways that was the cleverest device designed to propel TDs to ministerial office ever seen in the state.

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1. irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

As far as I know, nobody stood using the Independent Alliance in the Local Elections. None of the Ross, Halligan, Moran or McGrath candidates had the name or logo on their material and were all listed as Independents.

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2. Joe - January 14, 2020

I’d say McGrath will run. But will he hold his seat? I kinda doubt it.

Irish Times and Nuacht an Deiscirt both saying that the election will be on February 8th. A Saturday? That would be a first, would it?

Nuacht an Deiscirt (7 nóiméad ó shin): 8ú lá d’Fheabhra a bheidh an toghchán, tá sé deimhnithe!

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sonofstan - January 14, 2020

Count on the Sunday?

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Joe - January 14, 2020

Where’s John Charles McQuaid when we need him?

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3. sonofstan - January 14, 2020

Ivana Bacik director of elections for Labour…… you can finish this one yourselves.

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4. irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

Finian McGrath not running again.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

Woah. Genuinely surprised at that. Who is that good news for in Dublin Bay North? The Green, the SocDem? But both of them, I think, are at the very far end of the constituency from McGrath.

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WorldbyStorm - January 14, 2020

Doesn’t he have a loosely orbiting ind cllr? Any chance he’d go for it?

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Joe - January 14, 2020

He does actually, yeah. He might go for it but doubt he would get it. But would be a good move for him, set out his stall, if he seriously wants to go for the Dáil there now and in the future. His name is on the tip of my tongue…

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irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

Damian O’Farrell is the Cllr alligned with Finian. Polled over 3,500 votes in the locals in Clontarf.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

Janey. That’s a decent vote for the locals. He has to throw his hat in the ring with that vote behind him.

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Joe - January 14, 2020

So I just had a conversation with someone who will be heavily involved in the campaign in DBN. Their take on O’Farrell is that his votes are all down the Clontarf end and he won’t pick up many more in other parts. So everyone will be after his transfers. They see Mitchell of SF as a goner – low local profile, they lost their council seat, seems to be a bit of a disaster and I’m surprised SF have let it get as bad as it sounds for them. They also expect the Green to sail in for a seat (sail in, he’s from Howth, get it?). Healy the Green will get his local vote plus middle class and youth vote from across the constituency. So what are we looking at now: Seats for Haughey, Bruton and the Healy. Two more then between O Riordain, Broughan and the SD, O’Callaghan? Heney the second FFer in with a shout (the only woman in the mix)? Lyons of Independent Left in with a shout too?
Is Broughan standing? Has anyone heard? Whether or no, I’m saying he won’t keep his seat. Time for a changing of the guard.
So I’m calling the last two seats for O Riordain and Heney.

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irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

I gather O’Farrell is not running!

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Joe - January 14, 2020

Ok. His votes are in the Clontarf end. So him not running is good for Heney and O Riordain. O’Callaghan is too far away up in Howth to pick up many. I’m calculating that votes that elected SD councillor(s) in Artane etc won’t necessarily go to the SD candidate based in Howth.
Where, geographically and social class wise, is Lyons vote from?
If Tommy Broughan goes again is he going to clean up in Coolock, both sides of the Oscar Traynor road? Will he do well from SF Mitchell’s transfers? If he runs.

It’s a nightmare of a constituency, size-wise. Location could be everything.

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5. Joe - January 14, 2020

Anyway, moving along with our series of in-depth constituency profiles.
Dublin North-West.
Adrian Kavanagh has the following confirmed candidates:
Dublin North-West (3 seats): Deputy Noel Rock (Fine Gael), Cllr. Paul McAuliffe (Fianna Fáil), Deputy Dessie Ellis (Sinn Féin), Cathleen Carney Boud (Sinn Féin), Cllr. Andrew Montague (Labour), Deputy Roisin Shortall (Social Democrats), Cllr. Caroline Conroy (Green Party), Conor Reddy (People Before Profit), Ian Croft (Independent).

The three seats have to be between Rock, McAuliffe, Shortall and Ellis. I’d say Shortall for sure. I’d say Ellis or Rock could be in danger from McAuliffe. SF running two candidates – not a good idea given people are saying SF’s Ellis might struggle a bit this time?
A new PbP name running here for the first time. I wonder will perennial left indo Bernie Hughes run? The WP had Cathy Shiels as a local election candidate here, will she run? No chance of a seat for any of these further left people.

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irishelectionliterature - January 14, 2020

McAuliffe is Lord Mayor and an affable chap (also an ex PD), I’d expect him to take Rocks seat.

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