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Independents in 2020 January 16, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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So, how will they fare? According to all of us here, not as badly as some have predicted in the last few years. No doubt part of that is incumbency. I mentioned I did a quick tot-up prior to Christmas of how many I thought might make it back and came to the conclusion four left wing Independents might do it and perhaps eight right wing independents. But I note that others are more optimistic/pessimistic and see greater numbers being returned. I didn’t do names, but for the record I’d see Grealish, Mattie McGrath, Healy-Rae (possibly both), Naughten, Lowry as (strongly to reasonably) likely to keep their seats. That’s six or seven. After that, there’s a number I’m not sure about – others can help – Fitzmaurice, Ross, Collins, Canney and ‘Boxer’ Moran, as possibles. On the left we have none at all I’d feel are certain to keep their seats, though again I’m open to persuasion – choose from Broughan, Healy, Connolly, O’Sullivan (if she runs – and no one knows just yet), Pringle and – if we’re being kind, Zappone. Of course that cohort may be supplemented by Dean Mulligan or A.N.Other – perhaps a certain apostate Green Party member and former representative? So we could be down to either or so Independents on Election Day if things go poorly, or we could see them slightly down from their current number of 19 (worth keeping in mind those who are retiring, Harty, possibly Halligan, possibly McGrath). That’s quite a range of support, or lack of same.

As to those who wandered across to independent status during the last few years – Peter Fitzpatrick of FG, Carol Nolan of SF (and Peadar Toibin too though he went to a party so he’s a different story – and presumably will keep his seat?) they’ve a massive hill to climb.

Comments»

1. PaddyM - January 16, 2020

Would expect Boxer Moran to hold the seat given that there’s no other strong candidate in Athlone (there’s a Green and a SocDem but neither is likely to be eating into his vote and McFadden of FG is there essentially to keep FG’s gender quota above 30%.

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WorldbyStorm - January 16, 2020

Ah interesting.

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