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More predictions! January 16, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I read this and I wonder.

2 hours ago
Another confident prediction. Odran Flynn, psephologist (numbers nerd to me and you) has been on Pat Kenny’s show on Newstalk predicting the Greens will win a seat in every Dublin constituency with the exception of Dublin North West. That would more or less tally with my own prediction. I have them winning seats in all Dublin constituencies, bar Dublin North West and Dublin Mid West. Former Green Paul Gogarty, now an Independent, has acted as a barrier there.

Harry McGee

Who is the candidate in Dublin Central who is going to come through and win a seat? Nothing is impossible, but that’d be some wave that would see a GP TD appear given the strong enough contenders already in the field in that constituency. And if that is true of Dublin Central then what of other constituencies? Granted green sentiment is strong, perhaps that is enough. Perhaps the by-elections offer a control – indicating that in competitive constituencies the GP vote has certainly ticked upwards sharply, but sharply enough?

By contrast this seems a bit more plausible… Eoin O’Malley on Political Reform who argues that FF might be on 58, FG 44, SF 17, the GP on 9, the LP on 7, Sol-PBP/Further left on 5, SDs on 3 and Ind/Others on 17.

Comments»

1. irishelectionliterature - January 16, 2020

This is my predictions at the minute, based on instinct and talking to people.
FF -51
FG – 43
SF -19
Lab – 7
GP -19
PBP 2
Solidarity 2
RISE 1
SD -2
Ind -13
Aon -1

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NFB - January 16, 2020

Catherine Murphy will surely get re-elected in Kildare North, no?

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Joe - January 16, 2020

Yes. Are you reading the above – 2 as minus 2, NFB? I think it means two seats for the SDs, presumably Shortall and Murphy.

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NFB - January 16, 2020

You’re probably right, I was just looking at the few above it.

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2. G - January 16, 2020

Neasa Hourigan is the candidate in Dublin Central I believe.

Not sure the Greens will do all that well tbh. Given their reputation for wanting to impose new taxes in line with making no secret about being willing to enter government. I’d be very surprised if they made it to double digits although they could well win in Dublin Central.

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G - January 16, 2020

I think 5 or 6 is more likely.

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sonofstan - January 16, 2020

I’ve met Neasa H and she’s a good candidate for the Stoneybatter end of the constituency….possibly less so elsewhere. Can’t see her winning: too much competition for seats 3 and 4, but, if she picks up a high enough first preference total from voters who simply want to vote Green and who are less engaged with the rest of the field, and she survives into the final counts, who knows?
Still think it’ll be MLM, Paschal, Mary Fitz and one of Gary Gannon, Joe Costello or Maureen O’Sullivan. Is Christy Burke running?

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Joe - January 16, 2020

Christy Burke is running, according to Adrian Kavanagh anyway.
I think at this stage it would be fair enough to add Neasa H to the list of Gannon, Costello, O’Sullivan as contenders for that last seat.
There’s an assumption of a green wave. Based on the climate emergency but more importantly, on the local election results. We need more data on that now – we need a poll!
But waves being wavy, if a green wave builds, we could see Neasa H winning the first seat in DC with votes from young people and nice middle class people right across the constituency.

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Colm B - January 16, 2020

The green wave will be the story of this election. Younger people don’t know about their awful record in gov and some middle class people don’t care or quite like their austerity plus environmental-lite politics.
All the more reason we need to keep a radical left presence in the Dail.

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sonofstan - January 16, 2020

The most right-wing green party in Europe? or do the other ones just look better from a distance?

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irishelectionliterature - January 16, 2020

Aside from the younger vote (anecdotally the Greens will poll very well here), The Greens will get that vote that would have in usual times gone to Labour . There is no great enthusiasm for FF or FG out there either and I’d imagine a lot of the undecideds will just vote Green on the day.
The past few elections have been unduly negative, by that many voters were voting against FF/FG/Lab and there were distinct blocks , the Greens straddle those blocks and will be the most transfer friendly of the parties. This will lead to some seemingly freak results where they’ll unexpectedly take a last seat in places.

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CMK - January 16, 2020

Austrian Greens? Ban on hijab and tougher preventative detention of migrants while working towards carbon neutrality by 2040?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/09/austria-greens-right-peoples-party-anti-immigration

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3. Joe - January 16, 2020

Listen. Stop! This is in danger of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. We need a new campaign, and fast. SMASH THE GREENS.
(Local elections, Kilbarrack 1990ish – Never forgive, never forget)

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4. NFB - January 16, 2020

Roderic O’Gorman is a good shout for the Greens in Dublin West. He’s been running for decades and appeared to have a hit a ceiling of around 2000 first preferences in the constituency, but then in the locals last year he got over 3’000. If that follows through in the other parts of the constituency he’ll more than likely unseat Coppinger or Burton.

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sonofstan - January 16, 2020

That was the view on Late Debate last night in their constituency profile of DW – Leo, O’Gorman, Chambers, and most likely Coppinger in that order.

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NFB - January 16, 2020

If Burton could survive 2016, I’d favour her this time. The Sol/PBP vote was way down in Coppinger’s area in the locals. Not sure about SF’s Donnelly.

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5. tafkaGW - January 16, 2020

It shouldn’t be about ‘smashing the Greens’. It is incumbent on the green left to explain how the neoliberal assumptions about the ‘efficiency’ and sanctity of the market that the Green Party has absorbed and exude, is in no way compatible with carbon neutrality by year X. For varying rhetorically round values of X (2030, 2040, 2050 etc. etc.)

Only public ownership and democratic control of at least power generation, distribution, transport at the very least can achieve that in the short time available. Along with serious public control over agriculture and housing. We need a crash program for changes in production, care and consumption greater than that needed to win WWII. Most of which was achieved by government control over industry.

Interrogate the Greens on their specific proposals, and ask them what are their red lines for coalition.

Defeating the Greens will get us not a jot nearer what has to be done to avoid climate catastrophe and capitalist barbarism. Time is short.

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Alibaba - January 16, 2020

Events, boys, events!

‘Interrogate the Greens on their specific proposals, and ask them what are their red lines for coalition’.

‘Time is short’.

My thoughts also, though I suspect Joe’s tongue is superglued to his cheek with ‘SMASH THE GREENS’.

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tafkaGW - January 16, 2020

Just had a gander at the Irish Greens’ twitter feed and it’s full of nice middle-class greenery, bit more public transport there, bit more renewables there, some recycling etc.

It’ll be worth taking a forensic look at their manifesto.

On the ‘most right-wing neolib Green party in Europe’ competition: the German Grünen / Bündnis 90 are certainly in the running, but not quite up the to Irish quality.

Especially in places like Baden-Wurrtemberg.

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sonofstan - January 16, 2020

” it’s full of nice middle-class greenery, bit more public transport there, bit more renewables there, some recycling etc.”

Blueshirts on bicycles, basically.

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pettyburgess - January 16, 2020

The most annoying thing about the Greens isn’t their middle class sensibilities or even their catastrophic role in destroying the economy last time they propped up Fianna Fáil. It’s their absolutely terrible record on the environment when in office. Diesel, incinerators, motorway building, Corrib gas etc. That these absolute chancers will nearly automatically benefit from environmental concern despite a record of actively damaging the environment is one of the great stupidities of Irish politics (and a demonstration of the power of branding).

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Fergal - January 16, 2020

To add to petty’s list…Dublin bus tickets hiked and Dublin bus routes slashed … when the greens were in power… but that was then … and all is forgiven …

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tafkaGW - January 16, 2020

I don’t care to speculate where Joe’s tongue has been.

Irony is the opposite of drip-dry as far as I’m concerned.

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Joe - January 16, 2020

It’s just a slogan. Let me expand. I’m proposing that the dated hammer and sickle of the international workers’ movement (aka the Joeist movement) be relaced by the mortar and pestle. Step one in Joeism is to gather all the greens and place them in the mortar. Then crush/smash with the pestle. Add a little salt and olive oil and hey, pesto.

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Colm B - January 16, 2020

If they were a radical Green Party or even a Green Party that was likely to keep some of their promises then your approach might hold but they’re not. The fact is that in many constituencies the greens will knock out a radical left TD. And that will be disastrous for the immediate material interests of workers and would not advance the cause of saving the planet one jot.
I’m not coming at this from a position of dogmatism, I sometimes vote Green in Scotland, so my view is based on the concrete situation in Ireland right now.

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6. Paul Culloty - January 16, 2020

Kerry looks set to be the most barren ground in Munster for any left party, with even the long-serving Labour councillor Terry O’Brien declining to enter the race. As for the five seats, the two Healy-Raes are safe, as is FG’s Brendan Griffin. FF will win one seat, but it could be either John Brassil or Norma Foley, and the final seat is between the loser of those two, SF’s Pa Daly, and FG’s Mike Kennelly, with the last-named likely to succeed.

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7. tafkaGW - January 16, 2020
8. Jim Monaghan - January 16, 2020

‘SMASH THE GREENS’. Nonsense even if jokey. The Green voters should be a Left constituency. The ledarsip has successfuilly got over the debacle of coalition. And aggressive ant Green propaganda will not attract preferences. Better to patiently explain. Make anti-coialition the theme.
General point, this election now sees FF forgiven. The Labour Party with a bit of a revival.
The Left, the real Left in crisis. Multiple candidates deluting the canvassing pool and the vote.
Is the Left serious. On a bad night, all the Left candidates could lose.

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Fergal - January 16, 2020

Does anybody here have any positive news??
Looks like we’re staring down the barrel of another 2007!!
Will Greens will many seats outside of Dublin?

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9. oliverbohs - January 16, 2020

I hope Labour party canvassers make sure to remind potential voters of the unprecedented mess that followed when the Greens were last part of a coalition government.
It’d definitely cheer people up

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10. CL - January 16, 2020

Can Sinn Fein survive in Cork East?

“Of the four sitting TDs, you could put a fair amount of money on Fine Gael’s David Stanton, Labour’s Seán Sherlock, and Fianna Fáil’s Kevin O’Keeffe all winning re-election.
But Sinn Féin’s grip on the fourth seat is a lot looser….
The party retained just two of its Cork County Council seats last summer, but one of them is held by Danielle Twomey, who was co-opted to replace Mr Buckley back in 2016.

That tells us two things that will be crucial to him if he is to retain his seat: the split in the local party has been somewhat repaired, and people in his area are still willing to back Sinn Féin….

The Sherlock name has been synonymous with north Cork politics for decade, with Joe Sherlock holding a seat on and off for The Workers’ Party and Labour, before handing it off to his son Seán in 2007.”
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/All-eyes-are-on-Sinn-Fein-seat-in-Cork-East-election-race-f9515aed-84ef-4317-8750-7bc7022975c3-ds

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11. Dr. Nightdub - January 17, 2020

Really can’t see the Greens being at the races in Dub SC last time out their candidate got 1400 votes, putting them ahead of only Renua and a couple of ding bats.

Main concern would be whether Bríd Smith can keep her seat, was elected in 2016 without reaching the quota, only 50 votes ahead of the FFer. SF only running one candidate this time so far, not two, which could change the transfer patterns, otherwise you’d be hoping FF and FG simply leech off each other, leaving Smith a clearer run.

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