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First Poll of the Campiagn January 19, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Very good news for FF

Fianna Fáil 32 (+5)
Fine Gael 20 (-7)
Sinn Féin 19 (-1)
Greens 7 (+1)
Labour 4 (-2)
Independent Alliance 3 (+1)
Solidarity-PBP 2 (-1)
Social Democrats 1
Renua 1 (+1)
Ind & ors 10

Comments»

1. Liberius - January 19, 2020

The fairly violent movements probably mean it’s an outlier (possibly influenced by the RIC stuff), but, that won’t matter for the perspective of the public and it probably will influence events and put FG on the backfoot for a good while, and potentially latter on extra scrutiny on FF if people sense they are the next government.

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

Who is it from?

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Liberius - January 19, 2020

Behaviour & Attitudes, field work done January 2-14.

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

Cheers. Thanks. The ff and sf figures strike me as being on the high side.

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tdf - January 19, 2020

@ WorldbyStorm Does it matter? The Irish, or at least those of them that vote, want more of what they have – more roads, more cars, homelessness, more unsustainable ‘growth’. I don’t know why FF/FG/Irish Labour don’t merge with the Tories, they represent the same interests.

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

In some ways no, it doesn’t. But I do have an interest in how this play out. And while I agree that there’s some commonality between those parties that’s not the whole story (and of course they’d never merge when the system works just fine with them separate).

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2. Dermot M O Connor - January 19, 2020

Assuming poll is close to accurate, caveats, etc:

2002 FG got 22.5% = 31 seats (OK, against FF’s 41.5% which got a higher seat bonus, but still). If FG are anywhere near this, they’re in for a rude awakening.

Labour, christ, they’ll be royally banjaxxed on this. Fodder for Green transfers.

FF/Green/IND coalition 2.0 on the cards, FFS, short memories!!!

RENUA? WTF??????

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3. CL - January 19, 2020

A massive swing to FF from FG.
Pre-poll predictions now obsolete. FG is identified with the status quo,-homelessness, health debacle, crime.
Pressure now from grassroots FF for Martin to alter his stance on coalition with SF. An appealing vista presents itself of healing the split of 1926, as SF is assimilated to the new cute hoorism. One big republican happy….
Still just one poll of about 900 people, and a long political time to go to that fateful day of decision.

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NFB - January 19, 2020

Scary reading for anyone not on the FF train. Proof that the RIC thing was as big of a disaster for Fine Gael as many thought.

A minority FF government was a bad enough prospect, but a potential FF led coalition majority, with the Greens (can they really be so stupid?) SD’s (increasingly sounding desperate to be in power) Aontu, the usual Ind crowd or some combination thereof is positively terrifying.

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NFB - January 19, 2020

But would Sinn Fein go back so directly on its stance? I don’t think so myself. They saw what happened to Labour in 2011.

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

I hope you’re right. And I don’t say that in the sense I think they are ignoring that 2011 dynamic at all. A lot depends on their seat numbers. If they hold or even grow a little that might be important in terms of their perception.

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4. Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

There is little doubt that the attempt to commemorate the RIC damaged FG even among some erstwhile FG voters. The effect of this will last for some time even when the issue itself is forgotten.

It is significant that SF are on 19% , effectively the same as in last month’s B&A poll, given the MoE of 3.3%. This is about 5% above the SF vote in the last General Election. IF THE SF VOTE TURNS OUT, SF will gain a few seats.
The presence of SF with such support is a huge obstacle to the traditional Labour recovery when in opposition

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5. Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

Sinn Féin and FG Neck and Neck-but nobody noticed!

Fg 20% SF 19% MoE 3.3%

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

Very good point.

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Tomboktu - January 19, 2020

hmmm… on those figures, the RTÉ leaders’ debate will be just Martin because FG is too low in the poll to justify a place in the studio.

(A leader’s debate, if you will.)

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Tomboktu - January 19, 2020

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

One other aspect of the poll – the GP vote is substantially lower than might have been thought. What gives?

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Jim Monaghan - January 19, 2020

Concentrated in urban areas. Which would be good for them. Better a high percentage in some than a lowish percentage everywhere. A pity McHugh is not running in Galway./

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rockroots - January 19, 2020

“A pity McHugh is not running in Galway.”

Imagine how much better the Greens would perform with a new, young, radical leader who wasn’t associated with a deeply unpopular government. Likewise for Labour. At some point, ‘providing continuity’ stops being an asset.

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6. Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

Poll data have not yet been posted on Banda.ie
However newspaper reports say that the Fianna Fáil surge has been heavily affected by a score of 49% in Munster!! The fact that Munster was the cockpit of the war of independence including the battle with the RIC and the prospect of a Cork Taoiseach are probably strong factors in the FF score

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Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

FF surge from 27% to 49% in Munster
It might be expected that Leo Varadkar and even Charlie Flanagan might misread the Munster reaction to an attempt to commemorate the RIC. But Simon Coveney??? 1 Cork Lord Mayor murdered, second dies on hunger strike, Cork City burned as a reprisal by Crown Forces etc etc!!!!

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

I was talking to the asst to an Ind TD from there or thereabouts a week or so back. He was baffled by the FG approach but his take was that it had whipped up a storm of feeling, none of it good for FG. Sure, that’s anecdata, but… from what you point to it seems it may be correct.

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7. roddy - January 19, 2020

I honestly can’t see SF in government.Thing is if you give a well crafted,costed manifesto striking all the right notes on housing,depravation etc,you can be instantly floored by “its pie in the sky stuff that will never be implemented.Sure you have refused to countenance government so you can promise the moon and the stars knowing you will never have to stand over it”.By saying “any government wanting our support will have to implement x,y and z ,you effectively disarm a hostile media .I can never see FG allowing SF in and FF likewise as long as Martin leads them.The ideal position (which most people I know favour) is to become the effective opposition with a view to attaining power in the long term.

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8. CL - January 19, 2020

“Remarks made by Donegal TD Pat “The Cope” Gallagher suggesting that Sinn Féin and his party Fianna Fáil are very alike have been dismissed by Mary Lou McDonald….
She said however that she is “glad” that Mr Gallagher had “broken the trend and bucked the trend”.
“He is prepared to recognise that Sinn Fein has a democratic mandate and that we have a lot to contribute to the system here,” Ms McDonald added….
Earlier, local Wicklow TD John Brady suggested it makes no sense for parties in the Republic of Ireland to “be happy for us to govern in the North, but to have no say in the south”.
He said he expected the situation to become more fluid as it becomes clear what parties are in a position to form an administration in three weeks’ time.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/remarks-made-by-pat-the-cope-gallagher-about-sfff-similarities-dismissed-by-mary-lou-mcdonald-976049.html

“FIANNA Fail TDs want to go into Government with Sinn Fein but are being shut out by leader Micheal Martin’s refusal to entertain the idea, Pearse Doherty has claimed.
Deputy Doherty claims that both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are ruling out a coalition with Sinn Fein because they are afraid that his party will force them to change the status quo….
Micheal Martin… said he does not trust Sinn Fein and worries that the party is run by non-elected party members in Northern Ireland.
Pearse Doherty claimed that the accusations are “absolute nonsense” and hit out at Fianna Fail for “muckraking”.”
https://www.thesun.ie/news/5002700/fianna-fail-coalition-pearse-doherty/

“Last week, on Newstalk, Senator Michael McDowell, a former justice minister, told Ivan Yates that Sinn Fein decisions are not made in the Dail or Stormont, but by a small number of people, mostly in Belfast….

as soon as an IRA-influenced Sinn Fein enters a future cabinet, this State ceases to function as a proper democracy and becomes a rogue EU state.”-Eoghan Harris.

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Joe - January 19, 2020

Pat the Cope has votes and transfers to win for FF in Donegal. An té nach bhfuil láidir ní foláir dó bheith glic. Tá Pat the Cope láidir cinnte ach cinnte dearfa tá sé glic chomh maith.
Up the Republic.

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9. Paul Culloty - January 19, 2020

Shane Coleman gives his seat projection in the Sindo – aggregating 39 constituency forecasts:

FF 55
FG 46
Ind 18
SF 17
Green 11
Lab 8
Soc Dems 2
Sol/PBP 2 (Coppinger, Smith)
Aontú 1

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NFB - January 19, 2020

FF/SF/G?

Or FG/SF/L/G!?

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WorldbyStorm - January 19, 2020

Yeah. Sheesh, interesting isn’t it, SF lose seats. GP is bigger, and a big jump from 3. Lab up 1 or so. Coppinger and Smith. Well, could be.

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Dekkard - January 19, 2020

FF/GP/LAB with a smattering of Indos

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Dermot M O Connor - January 20, 2020

AK wrote a few years ago that there were two ways to estimate seat levels. One, take the total national % and use the d’hondt method to estimate seats (which of course produces funky individual constituency estimates, as it flattens obvious one-offs like Dub Central), other was to do a seat by seat. He said he doesn’t believe in seat by seat, as “that way lies madness”.

😀

Anyway, take that for what it’s worth.

Speaking of AK, his blog was last updated last Oct., long overdue for a post.

Anyway, none of the wizards who were analysing the 4 by-elections put SF or the Greens in with a shout, so I’ll hold off before putting too much cred on the same crew doing it on a vastly more complex national, with not one seat on the go per constituency, but 3 4 or 5.

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10. Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

Simon Coveney:”The Cork TD also acknowledged the controversy surrounding Fine Gael’s handling of a proposed commemoration of the Royal Irish Constabulary “probably” contributed to his party’s poor performance in the poll.”-Irish Times
He knows now! Vote for FF has risen from 27 to 49% in Munster

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11. roddy - January 19, 2020

SF 21 in Dublin which should see them ok for most of their seats.

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12. Paddy Healy - January 19, 2020

General Election 2016
Fine Gael 25.47%, Fianna Fáil 24.31%, Sinn Féin 13.82%, Labour 6.60%

If Sinn Féin can get it’s vote in todays poll out to vote, it will gain a few seats based on a rise of over5% since the last election

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13. CL - January 19, 2020

Dr Adrian Kavanagh “has identified 10 Independent candidates who could potentially support Fianna Fáil in a future government…
rural independents could also form a group of 10 or 11 TDs between then, which could also be significant in government formation.”
https://www.rte.ie/news/campaign-daily/2020/0117/1108019-independents-election-2020/

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14. dermot - January 20, 2020

Wow; dublin breakdown:

FG 31 (-2)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 16 (-3)
LB 5 (NC)
GRN 9 (+2)

The poll has FF on 49% in Munster, skewing the national figure. Very good for SF & Greens in Dublin so, as well as FG … chance of them repeating the 3 TDs in 2002 nil on those %.

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Joe - January 20, 2020

Janey. Those Dublin figures throw a different light on things. What’s going on? Is Dublin happy with this govt and the rest of the country not?

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15. tafkaGW - January 20, 2020

Observing from outside in my disenfranchised citizen state, it’s remarkable how the dismal same old same engulfs me, even from afar.

Tweedledee up in the polls. Tweedledum down. Irish Meeja act act as if this means anything.

Dynastic politics everywhere.

Groan.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 20, 2020

100%. Amazing that when the FF/G duopoly falls from ~90% combined to ~50% combined, they can still lock down the system.

Even more depressing is the pisspoor alternatives. SF seem to be infested with MRA morons cracking wise about underage sex, racist ‘jokes’, and walking around with loaves of bread on their heads, ha ha ha, great for losing the party another % here and there.

Let’s not get started about the small left parties who seem more intent on competing against one another (thereby letting a FFG or – shudder – a green in instead). I’m not one for lesser-evilism, but FFS, Paul Murphy trumps any FFGLabGrn on offer.

I’d put what little hope I had in parliamentary processes in JC in the UK; the frankly uninspiring lineup of successors does little to inspire confidence – I’m probably going to have to stop reading UK news sources, just too depressing. KS scares me, frankly. Jess Philips is a … (redacted); the rest seem, well, flat. Wonder if David Miliband will be parachuted into a by-election from his charity work (in actuality a CIA sinecure / training program) in NY to revert back to Plan A? Gahh.

At this point I’m really following out of morbid curiosity and for entertainment value, what little there is, and these days it’s very little indeed.

The Sufis say that “The Door of Enlightenment only opens when all other doors are closed”. Which was understood by the Greeks … that was why Hope was in Pandora’s box with the rest of the monsters. As long as people have ‘Hope’ they’ll cling to that tiny flicker of false light, most until the day they die. In the case of modern liberal democracies, the idea that incremental meliorist improvements will somehow deliver a just society that won’t eat up the biosphere and shit out a planetary turd. Good luck with that, Eamon.

As the process of waking up (as in Waking Up and NOT ‘wokeness’) is such a brutal and painful process, it’s never going to happen on a mass scale, in all likelihood.

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16. Paddy Healy - January 20, 2020

Sinn Féin were 4% AHEAD of FINE GAEL in the Actual Responses to the B&A National Poll of Jan 19,2020
“Processing” by B&A Reduced the Sinn Féin Score by 5% https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
Munster: Fine Gael sink to 13% which is 4 points Below Sinn Féin as FF soar to 49%!!!
GENERAL ELECTION 2020 B&A poll Jan 19

Raw Poll MoE 3.3%

FF 21 FG 14 SF 17 Lab 2 All Others+Gn 17 Undecided 28

Excluding Undecided

FF 29 FG 20 SF 24 Lab 3 All Others+Gn 23

“Adjusted” by B&A

FF 32 FG 20 SF 19 Lab 4 All Others+Gn 25 of which GN 7

Munster MoE 5%

FF FG SF Lab All Others+Gn

49 13 17 4 17

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17. irishelectionliterature - January 20, 2020

There’s an Irish Times MRBI poll out tonight

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