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Tommy Broughan not running again January 22, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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As noted in the comments Tommy Broughan is not running again

Dublin Bay North looks like 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF, 1 GP and 1 Lab?
Any other thoughts?

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1. Joe - January 22, 2020

Hard to see it going any other way.
AK has this current candidate list: Deputy Richard Bruton (Fine Gael), Senator Catherine Noone (Fine Gael), Deputy Sean Haughey (Fianna Fáil), Cllr. Deirdre Heney (Fianna Fáil), Deputy Denise Mitchell (Sinn Féin), Sen. Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Labour), Cllr. Cian O’Callaghan (Social Democrats), Cllr. David Healy (Green Party), Bernard Mulvany (People Before Profit), Michael O’Brien (Solidarity), Proinsias Ó Conaráin (Aontú), Ben Gilroy (Irish Freedom Party), Cllr. John Lyons (Independent), Brian Garrigan (Independent), Sean O’Leary (Independent), Conor Creaven (Independent), Michael Burke (Independent), Linda McEvoy (Independent).

The two with a slim chance of being in the mix with those 5 would be O’Callaghan of SD and Lyons of Indo Left. O’Callaghan’s big problem is he’s based in Howth and so is the Green. I know someone who told me they’re voting Green1 and SD2 out there. That’s probably useless to the SD, unless there’s a huge Green surplus, which appears unlikely. Lyons is geographically more in the centre of the constituency. Broughan’s votes were mainly out Coolock way so there’ll be a big scramble for them and Lyons has as good a chance of anyone of getting a lock of them. And then Lyons will also be hoping for strong transfers from the other various further left candidates. Mitchell of SF should be safe if that latest national poll is right. The IT said she is a solid local worker, conflicting with what I heard from someone in the area (someone though with skin in the game for another candidate).
So yeah, 11111 as IEL suggests. Hopefully Lyons will stay in the count long enough to make it interesting.

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Also, Heney the second FFer could be in the mix if the first national poll is correcter than the second.

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2. John S - January 22, 2020

I think Lyons has an outside chance (although with skin in the game having canvassed for him before), as the only independent candidate with any profile. I think he might just fall short and his transfers should go to Mitchell and O’Callaghan and put them ahead of O’Riordain (fingers crossed). In 2011, McGrath, Mitchell, and Broughan got circa 2,000 votes each from Lyons with O’Riordain only getting around 300 as there is no love lost there.

The irony being that if O’Callaghan goes out before Lyons, his transfers should secure the seat for O’Riordain.

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3. gypsybhoy69 - January 22, 2020

ABOR

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Nó, i nGaeilge, ÉAÓR..

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gypsybhoy69 - January 22, 2020

Pronounced Eeyore?

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Sin é.

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4. irishelectionliterature - January 22, 2020

Don’t know if it will have any impact but it appears that the Green Party candidate was against repealing the 8th.
I’m told he is refusing to answer any questions on it.

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