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What you want to say – 22 January 2020 January 22, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.

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1. tafkaGW - January 22, 2020

There’s a grand stretch in the evenings!

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Thanks be to God.

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2. Joe - January 22, 2020

Three indo candidates worth watching.
Declan Bree goes once again in Sligo Leitrim. There was some poll out of the blue a year or two back that looked good for him. Very unlikely to take a seat imho but he’s persistent to say the least. I’m all for the likes of him sticking at it.
On the other hand, same constituency, Marian Harkin ex TD(?) and ex MEP. Didn’t run for MEP last time because her work was done. Retirement clearly hasn’t suited her. Going for the Dáil now. Can’t see her taking a seat but she is a proven vote-gatherer in days gone by.
And lastly, for now, Valerie Cox ex-RTÉ has thrown her hat into the ring in Wicklow. Seems to be concentrating on the grey vote and issues for older people. Again unlikely to take a seat but might get a decent vote.

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tafkaGW - January 22, 2020

It would be great to see Declan getting into the Dáil. I guess he must be pushing 70 but there’s still fight left in him, I’m sure.

Harkin is an absolute localist MOR waste of a vote.

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tony fagan's beard - January 24, 2020

Harkin has a good chance of topping the poll apparently. Would love to see Bree, who’s been standing in these elections since 1977, make it but very unlikely.
You want an interesting dark horse? Cathal Berry, the former high ranking soldier running in Kildare South on the issue of conditions in the defence forces, might have a shot at the last seat there.

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tony fagan's beard - January 26, 2020

Two other independents in with a big chance are Frankie Daly in Limerick and Matt Shanahan in Waterford. Anyone know much about them?

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

Not a thing. irishelectionliterature is the man to ask.

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3. irishelectionliterature - January 22, 2020

John Waters running in Dun Laoghaire for Gemma O’Dohertys ACI crowd

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Ah ffs.

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4. CL - January 22, 2020

“Politicians have been told it “will be a shame, and shameful” if the tolerance that has marked the Decade of Commemorations is lost following the controversy surrounding the Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC).
In a pointed speech on Tuesday night, the chair of the Expert Advisory Group, Dr Maurice Manning, urged “all political parties and their leaders” to realise that “these are fragile times”….
The Government and the experts’ group had been “reflecting” since the row broke out early in the new year on the way forward “and we do need to up our game, and will do so”….
The backlash over the now postponed RIC/Dublin Metropolitan Police commemoration at Dublin Castle was “a warning shot which must be heeded”, he said….
“Sadly, recent events have not been helpful. In fact they have been worrying given some of the extreme language and political posturing we have seen.”
Dr Manning said he hoped the War of Independence and Civil War commemorations were marked by the same spirit as that shown for the Easter Rising….
“As a people we were rightly proud of how we as a country commemorated 1916 with style, generosity and pride. For once we looked like a people at ease with our own history.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/ric-row-shameful-if-spirit-and-tolerance-of-2016-events-lost-1.4147232

(Incidentally, the photo accompanying this piece in the I.T was taken by Julien Behal, son of Richard Behal)

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Lads and lasses. I’ve always voted left and socialist. Never gave a pref to FF or FG or indeed to SF. But, look, my family roots are FF, end of.
We can’t allow the Staters to be running the show during the Civil War 100 yr commemorations. No, nay, never.
So FF will be getting a preference from me this time. My excuse for still blanking the Shinners is that MLM’s seat is safe, she doesn’t need my vote.

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Liberius - January 22, 2020

Ah now Joe don’t be going soft, my family have similar FF voting heritage but I’d sooner eat my own foot off than give a preference to them.

Update on Dublin Fingal, John Uwhumiakpor of PBP is running, didn’t really do too well in the locals in Balbriggan (2.48%) and was outpolled by the Solidarity candidate Carah Daniels (3.88%), who went with the CWI Ireland group. And on that note Terry Kelleher has now appeared on the returning officers site as being registered to run for Solidarity-PBP (presumably still SP??).

The SDs have swapped out Tracey Carey for Paul Mulville, who has a more solid base around Donabate/Portrane so might amount to slightly more but still not really a contender for a seat.

https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/92-nominated-candidates-2020-dublin-fingal

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Joe - January 22, 2020

Gwan outta that Libo. My foot is tasty as a sweet crubeen. Up the Republic.

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sonofstan - January 22, 2020

My old lad learned to drive while transporting Tom McEllistrim around North Kerry during the course of the 1937 GE. And I’ve still never voted FF. Stay strong

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tafkaGW - January 22, 2020

You’ve got a very versatile old lad there SoS!

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5. Colm B - January 22, 2020

Might have the wrong person but I think VC was member of WP or maybe just DL and defected to Labour in 1990s.
Not an endorsement just an observation

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Joe - January 22, 2020

She worked in RTÉ in the eighties. Sure everyone knows that WP membership was a prerequisite for the job.

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6. Joe - January 22, 2020

Tommy Broughan not running in DBN. Back to the predictionometer/pigeon’s entrails…. more to follow.

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7. CL - January 22, 2020

“Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) surged ahead of his rivals to join former Vice President Joe Biden in a statistical dead heat atop the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field, according to a new poll.
Sanders now leads the field with 27 percent support from Democrats and Democratic leaning independents, based on the CNN national poll released Wednesday.
Sanders’s support jumped 7 points since last month, placing him in a virtual tie for first with Biden, who is at 24 percent. Sanders’s 3-point lead is within the poll’s margin of error. ”
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/479309-sanders-joins-biden-atop-2020-democratic-field-poll

The Iowa caucuses are on Feb 3.

According to 538- “Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg are all in the hunt in both Iowa and New Hampshire: No one has more than a 35 percent chance of winning either state”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-iowa-caucuses-are-in-17-days-whats-going-on-in-the-early-states/

With Sanders rise the Democratic Party establishment is mounting a full court press to deny him the nomination.

“The Hollywood Reporter published an interview with Mrs. Clinton promoting a new documentary about her that will premiere on Saturday at the Sundance Film Festival. In the documentary, she rips into Mr. Sanders and declines to say if she would endorse him and campaign on his behalf if he were to win the Democratic nomination.
“He was a career politician,” she said.
Her remarks ricocheted across the Democratic Party on Tuesday, threatening to reopen the barely healed wounds of the 2016 primary, a race that quickly turned from a near-coronation of Mrs. Clinton as the party’s first female nominee into a bitter battle that exposed a deep ideological rift among Democrats.
That split over what direction the party should take is now a major issue in the current primary, with Mr. Sanders arguing for the full-throated leftist agenda and others counseling moderation. …

Among some in Mr. Sanders’s campaign, there was hope that Mrs. Clinton’s remarks would lead to a bump in fund-raising.

On Twitter, the hashtag #ILikeBernie became a top trending topic. Many supporters pounced on Mrs. Clinton’s remarks, arguing that she remained out of touch with the working-class Americans who back Mr. Sanders….
Alexandra Rojas, the executive director of the progressive group Justice Democrats, called Mrs. Clinton’s statement “unacceptable, out of touch and dangerous.”

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tafkaGW - January 22, 2020

It would be great to see Sanders running against Trump. I still can hardly believe that the Democrat establishment will allow it, however.

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CL - January 22, 2020

Sanders would beat Trump. I doubt that Biden would.

“Despite forces working against it, a contested convention with multiple ballots is possible. While such a thing hasn’t happened since 1952, unique circumstances surrounding this election have increased the odds. For starters, there is immense pressure on Democrats to find a candidate who can beat Donald Trump. If the most electable contender stumbles along the way, a contested convention may be needed to find a new one.
Second, proportional allocation of state delegates and the 15% support threshold to win delegates also make it tougher to assemble a majority.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/12/27/why_a_contested_democratic_convention_is_possible_142033.html

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tafkaGW - January 23, 2020

Would Warren beat Trump, do you think, CL?

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CL - January 23, 2020

I have me doubts.
But who knows, still almost 10 months to the election. Bloomberg cannot be ruled out; he’s already spent $240 million.

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CL - January 25, 2020

“The corporate-Democratic Party leadership is in something of a panic. If Sanders wins Iowa and/or New Hampshire, then, under one possible scenario that frightens the party’s capitalist managers, he might well break through the bumbling, deeply conservative mediocrity Biden’s Black voter “firewall” in South Carolina and then roar towards the nomination through Nevada and the “Super Tuesday” (March 3rd) primary states….

Joe Rusty Chain Biden is a pathetic running dog lackey of the corporate and financial bourgeoisie – and a blood-drenched war criminal to boot!
It’s clear that much of the Democratic media-politics establishment will either sit out the general election or quietly back Trump if Sanders overcomes the plutocracy’s multiple hurdles to secure the nomination”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/a-letter-from-iowa/

“Incredulity by the political establishment that a self-described socialist has a large and growing constituency is evidence of how isolated it has become….
In contrast to decades of assurances from establishment politicians and their professional explainers in the press, none of what is written here thus far would be taken as radical if stated aloud at a mid-Western state fair, a suburban sports bar or a union meeting….

It is hardly incidental then that Bernie Sanders’ ideological roots in New Deal liberalism have found a wide and appreciative audience amongst the economically marginalized who correctly understand the source of their dispossession. …
Bernie Sanders has proposed a government job guarantee which could quickly and effectively empower a large political base, balance the power of capital through providing alternative livelihoods, and support a transition to sustainable livelihoods…..
racist demagoguery didn’t have an audience before capitalist failures followed by misguided, economically illiterate and often deeply classist, austerity was imposed”
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/01/24/why-the-primaries-matter/….

“Former President Barack Obama’s top lieutenants are eager to poke every conceivable hole in Bernie Sanders’ resurgent bid for the Democratic nomination….
while pointing to his massive cash hauls and loyal base of supporters, the thinking among Democrats close to the former president is that they are hoping the Vermont Independent flames out on his own….
In November, Politico reported that the former president once said that if it looked like the senator were close to winning the nomination, he would speak up in some capacity to help stop that from happening….
“The strongest argument against Bernie will be showing that you can defeat Donald Trump,” one Obamaworld source projected. “And he cannot.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/obamaworld-hates-bernie-sandersand-has-no-idea-how-to-stop-him

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EWI - January 23, 2020

I love how ‘moderation’ so often comes with cruise missile assaults on third-world nations, and unmaking the welfare state in favour of private capital.

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8. Paul Culloty - January 22, 2020

Something very odd is happening in Longford – James Reynolds of the National Party has had his odds slashed in, and now stands at 3/1, or 7th in the betting:

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=ireland

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sonofstan - January 22, 2020

Any relation to other Reynolds’ from that part of the world?

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Paul Culloty - January 22, 2020

No, he was vice-president of the IFA, but even they have disowned him.

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9. sonofstan - January 22, 2020

A rather boring meeting this afternoon enlivened by a report from the university’s Brexit steering group. Chap reporting said ‘I talked about Erasmus, facilities are more worried about sourcing toilet rolls. So is the uni’

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Joe - January 22, 2020

That’s Life with Esther Rantzen in the seventies. They did a vox pop on loo roll. ‘Which do you prefer, hard or soft?’. ‘Hard’. ‘Why?’. ‘Reminds me of the War’.
War is coming SoS.

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Michael Carley - January 23, 2020

I like to keep reminding HR that the Irish are the only staff who can get out of the UK and back in again.

For now.

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Joe - January 23, 2020

Go dtí seo. So far.

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10. tafkaGW - January 23, 2020

Finally the German state has outlawed Combat 18, which is in Germany the armed wing of the ‘Blood and Honour’ Nazi network.

Combat 18 was in the past, possibly still is, much loved by armed Loyalists in NI and beyond.

This would have been a sign of hope, had it not ought to have happened years ago, and didn’t because the CSU was in charge of the ministry of the interior.

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11. Dr. X - January 24, 2020

Listening to RTE the other day, via the magic of the interweb, I heard them plugging a new ESRI report which apparently claims that Ireland has tax system that is both progressive and redistributive.

I’m not altogether sure about this one – I remember a piece in the Irish Times in the summer of 2005 which claimed that the ESRI was about to issue findings that suggested that Ireland was an essentially equal society. 15 years later, I’m still waiting for that one to drop.

This new report on Irish taxation (or at least RTE’s reporting on this report) has to be seen in the context of multinationals using Dublin as a tax haven. But where exactly does it fit in that context?

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12. Michael Carley - January 24, 2020

Seamus Mallon has died.

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Tomboktu - January 25, 2020

I just scanned a few online reports on Mallon’s death. Plenty of politicians expressing sympathy or commenting on Mallon’s work, from Bill Clinton to Arlene Foster.

But not one of the reports has a quotation from David Trimble.

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Stan - January 25, 2020

RTE radio news quoted a statement from Trimble last night.

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pettyburgess - January 25, 2020

I will admit I thought he died years ago.

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WorldbyStorm - January 25, 2020

He was an interesting character. Back in the late 70s through to mid 80s he was the ‘greenest’ of the SDLP. Later on he modified his position hugely. There’s been some efforts to bridge that slight disconnect. But in fairness a hard old station being in the SDLP.

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13. Aonrud ⚘ - January 25, 2020

CWI Ireland calling for a vote for Paul Murphy in their leaflet:

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14. CL - January 25, 2020

“According to Oxfam, in Ireland, women put in 38m hours of unpaid care work every single week. If women received a living wage for this work, it would cost the State that €24bn figure….
Women carry out 70% of the family care work in the houses in Ireland, while 70% of candidates for the governing house of our country are men….
in Ireland that we value and reward some types of work and not others.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/joyce-fegan-the-reason-more-women-arent-running-for-election-977513.html

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15. Fergal - January 25, 2020

Well, is something happening in the election here? Are people just fed up with FF and FG that parties promising a difference and a change will see a big boost in their vote share? Anybody from left indos to the greens including sf…Labour not at all…although the Irish Times is doing its best to ‘big’ them up I’m meeting quite a lot of disgruntled people who are angry about very specific issues…housing, health etc…a mate who has always voted and actually canvassed for fg told me he was going to vote sf!! I’m quietly optimistic…let ff and fg form some kind of grand coalition and see what happens…

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Alibaba - January 25, 2020

There’s a strong element of truth in what you say about disgruntled people voting differently than before. To my astonishment an aged anarchist tells me he will vote in a general election for the first time in decades and gift it to Sinn Féin. What’s more he wants to see a coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. I think not. A coalition of the two most powerful and conservative parties in the Dáil would be a disaster for ordinary people and a massive setback for the left. Nah, FF/FG ain’t going into coalition anyway. Best they stay separate and voters will see through the sham difference between them. 

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16. Paul Culloty - January 26, 2020

Red C poll appears to have leaked early:

FF 26% (+2)
FG 23% (-7)
SF 19% (+8)
Ind 14% (-2)
Green 8% (+1)
Lab 4% (-2)
Soc Dems 3% (+1)
Sol/PBP 2% (-)
Aontú 1% (-)
Renua 0% (-1)

In practice, once you go below Green support levels, local canvassing does more for party seat numbers than national polling.

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17. Stan - January 26, 2020

The comparison between the ardent remainer of the 21st and the 18th century Jacobite has been remarked on before, usually by leavers, to illustrate the comic futility of devotion to the good old cause. But there is one other way of looking at it: the glorious revolution was a glorious English revolution, one that started the process towards the eventual subjection of the other kingdoms under the Westminster yoke in the service of imperialism. So maybe the efforts of 21st C Jacobites might be devoted to breaking those bonds?

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18. CL - January 27, 2020

“DES MOINES — Senator Bernie Sanders has opened up a lead in Iowa just over a week before the Democratic caucuses, consolidating support from liberals and benefiting from divisions among more moderate presidential candidates who are clustered behind him, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely caucusgoers….
A victory by Mr. Sanders in Iowa, where he suffered a narrow loss to Hillary Clinton four years ago, would represent a remarkable comeback for a 78-year-old candidate whose heart attack in October threatened to upend his candidacy. It would also create a moment of high anxiety for establishment-aligned Democrats who are deeply alarmed about a potential Sanders nomination….
Should he prevail in Iowa and face a similarly fractured field of mainstream rivals in New Hampshire, where he also currently leads in the polls, Mr. Sanders could be difficult to slow.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/sanders-seizes-lead-in-volatile-iowa-race-times-poll-finds/ar-BBZiYoT

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