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Business Post Red C Poll January 26, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Business Post Red C opinion poll. Taken over 7 days up to last Thursday.
FF 26% +2
FG 23% -7
SF 19% +8
Greens 8% +1
Lab 4% -2
Solidarity-PBP 2% (NC)
Social Democrats 3% +1
IND 14% -2
Aontú 1%
Margin of Error +\- 3% Last comparable poll was November 2019

Pattern of FF just ahead, FG losing support and SF doing well in line with other polls.
Have to say I think Sinn Féin , judging from talking to various people from all parties and none, will regret not fielding more candidates. I would not be shocked to see them in the mid 20’s in the polls by the end of the campaign.

Comments»

1. Liberius - January 26, 2020

I see a fair amount of comments online which in my opinion are over emphasising SF, sure there is potential for snowballing, but, the sequence of Red C polls released 10th, 13th and 16th February 2016 was 17, 20 and 17 percent; FF by contrast 18, 18 and 19. In general Red C’s polls underestimate FF, on these numbers I don’t think it would be unfair to say they are heading back into power and SF for a result in line with the previous one (which is a substantial improvement on where they looked like being).

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2. roddy - January 26, 2020

SF were caught out by the “surge”.It wasn’t forseen and everybody I know believed it would be a huge task defending what we have.Running 3 in Donegal last time resulted in Padraig losing his seat and that made for caution everywhere.Red c have amended their results in recent years to pull the SF figure down .

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

I think Liberius is right there may be some overstatement of SF … but even so it is heartening to see them holding up so well. I encountered two canvassing teams from the party today around where I live and it struck me how clearly working class they were – I knew a few of them from community activism. That is a real strength.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 26, 2020

Roddy, do you know how many candidates they’re running? Tried to find the number with no joy.

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

Was it 42 or so?

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3. Dermot M O Connor - January 26, 2020

Daily Mail poll:

FF: 27% (+2)
FG: 22% (-6)
SF: 20% (+5)
Green: 10% (+3)
Lab: 6% (+1)
SD: 3% (-)
S-PBP: 1% (-2)
Aontú: 1% (+1)

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

Inds?

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

Sorry it must be 10%

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4. NFB - January 26, 2020

All looking quite grim for Fine Gael, and Labour.

The rhetoric from FG/FF against Sinn Fein will only grow.

SD’s still looking at a couple of gains, presume they’ll be satisfied. They could actually overtake Labour on a good day, I’d never considered that before now.

Green wave not really materialising in the polls, but they could take a good few last seats, especially in Dublin. Sol-PBP might have a very bad day.

Aontu, will they have any? Renua 2.0?

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

+1
Just re aontu presumably they’d hold one?

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NFB - January 26, 2020

I can’t really say. Creighton didn’t, as mentioned, and presumably a chunk of his usual voters will turn to the Sinn Fein candidate. PP have him in third spot with three seats available, so may not take much to unseat him. One can hope anyway.

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

He did win a Cllr (his sister IIRC), so perhaps he’s okay. Anyone ever meet him? I’ve found him utterly sincere IRL, but not sure he gets that his very very soft left lifer approach has a bunch of folk (Look at the RSE protests) who are very odd indeed rocking up.

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Paul Culloty - January 26, 2020

I presume Tóibín is safe in his own seat – then again, we’d have said the same about Creighton in ’16!

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Paul Culloty - January 26, 2020

Strangely, the SDs are probably the only small party who could actually gain from being in coalition – after all, if they stay out, they’ll continue to bumble around at 2-3%, whereas trying to implement Sláintecare could give them a national profile.

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

That’s very true

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5. CL - January 26, 2020

The movement is from FG to SF. Maybe younger voters?

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Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

This does not follow. There can be many flows between parties and independents to give an overall outcome

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CL - January 26, 2020

Point taken.

“The rearguard action against the damage that Britain’s exit from the EU could cause the country has certainly stoked a mood of toxic nationalism in recent months, to the point where the row over the RIC commemoration had all the nuance of a rally for the hunger strikers in West Belfast.”
https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/eilis-ohanlon-the-rise-of-sinn-fein-cant-be-blamed-entirely-on-brexit-chaos-38895810.html

Or it could be that the toxic pro-imperialism of Fine Gael in trying to honour the Black and Tans has led to a rise in support for FF and SF.

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6. Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

While what Liberius says is correct, it is well to remember that Red C always reduces Sinn Féin below it’s score below its in actual poll. for example it moves its own poll outcome half way towards the score of the party concerned in the previous comparable election. Sinn Féin has difficulty getting it’s vote to turnout. that was solved in Dublin Mid-West. Can SF solve it nationally.

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Liberius - January 26, 2020

I don’t think they’ve done that it some time, the currently stated methodology (quoted below from November poll) merely involves a past recall weighting and then a weighting based on self-stated “likelihood to vote”. In general I agree that the primary issue for SF is getting its vote out (particularly the younger element of that, though that’s not just an issue for them), and indeed this forms an element of why FF tend to be understated as the older demographics where they are strong do seem to be more likely to actually vote.

– A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process
of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

– Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half
conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the
population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both
a landline and a mobile.

– Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted
in the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the
two.

– Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each
respondent is to actually go and vote on a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10
is very likely, as well as whether or not they voted in the last general election.

– In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both
ESOMAR and AIMRO.

https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/SBP-November-2019-Poll-Report.pdf

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Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

You are right. It is not now as crude as I said. However, if those polled truthfully report how they actually voted in the last general election, this process should favour parties who did well in the last general election. In early 2018, Red C said on it’s website:
From Red C Site
” Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all
adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two.
Vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 8 to 10 are included as being those who will definitely go and vote”

The phrase “those rating 8 to 10 are included(in poll) as being those who will definitely go and vote””
has not been explicitly included in the more recent information from RED C site which you quote.
Above all, Red C , unlike B&A, does not publish a raw poll and the outcome after “undecideds/wont votes” are distributed.
Regulators should require publication of the raw poll.
Would you believe the report of an Irish voter as to how they had voted in the last election?

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7. Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

Sinn Féin was ahead of Fine Gael in the most recent B&A Raw Poll . It was processing by B&A which reversed the order. see Paddyhealywordpress: Irish Opinion Poll Analysis

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8. Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

Labour 4%-2 Siptu Please note-and former General President Jack O’Connor is a Labour Candidate in Wicklow!

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Joe - January 26, 2020

No he’s not.

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EWI - January 26, 2020

Ex-candidate ✊

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Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

Thanks I did not know that Jack had changed his mind.

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9. roddy - January 26, 2020

With regard to Toibin. I don’t know how much of the team who elected him he was able to hold on to.I knew his election agent who was originally from South Derry and who died suddenly a couple of years ago.That man would be spinning in his grave at the antics of Toibin.

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

I had the impression very few if any stayed with him.

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10. Stan - January 26, 2020

FF/FG still just under 50% in both polls.

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11. Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

As Red C moves the figure for a party in its own poll to half way to the figure for the party in the last general election to give the final outcome, the figures in the actual poll were SF 23 FG 20.5

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12. dermot - January 26, 2020
dermot - January 26, 2020
dermot - January 26, 2020

seat projections w/o twitter embed just in case:

FF 48 (+4)
FG 41 (-8)
SF 33 (+10)
Greens 11 (+9)
Independents/Others 10 (-3)
Labour 6 (-1)
Social Democrats 4 (+2)
IA 3 (-3)
S-PBP 2 (-4)
I4C 1 (-3)

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

They’d more or less align with my own thoughts re returns. Hate to say, but I can’t see more than one left ind returning at this point.

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Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

“Sinn Féin is running 42 candidates across 38 constituencies”–I.T. Dublin Midwest, Donegal, Cavan -Monaghan, Louth?.
Ironically this could save a number of left seats. Some lefts may get over the line on the distribution of the surplus of the elected SF candidate. Assuming Sinn Féin won’t win a seat in all 38 constituencies, some lefts may be elected by transfers from an eliminated SF candidate.
The prediction on twitter fro Dermot above gives Sinn Féin 33 seats. Assuming SF regains the second seat in Donegal, there would be at least 7 seats in which the Sinn Féin candidate is not elected.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 26, 2020

Paddy, I was wondering that…thanks.

Those 42 might lose them potential seats on ~20, but should their % on the day be lower as it usually is, maybe they’ve got the balance just right. Gives them some padding for a lower turnout. Guess Donegal traumatised them last time, that had to hurt.

Also, btw, if Labour and FG fall below a certain point, their transfers become a factor – FG in particular. Don’t know who would benefit from FG transfers, or if there’d be a pattern, Greens perhaps? Or, god forbid, FF.

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Paddy Healy - January 26, 2020

Apparently there is one Cork constituency in which SF has no candidate!

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13. james mcbarron - January 26, 2020

Didn’t know where to post this so thought here would be best. Cork constituencies

Cork South Central
5 into 4 won’t go. Micky Martin, Mick McGrath FF Simon Coveney FG Donnach O Laoighaire SF all sitting TDs face challenge from Green Lorna Bogue , Buttimer FG second candidate can be discounted I think. The Greens sat here before with Dan Boyle. There was a feeling that SF were vunerable but the mood I detect is that he is safe being the opposition pole of attraction here. Bogue is on the left of the Greens and anti coalition making her a better option than the previous TD but that was a 5 seater.

Cork North Central
Sinn Fein replacing Jonathon O’Brien a very popular TD with Tom Gould should sail home, ran 2 candidates last time, may regret not trying again. Padraig O’Sullivan recently elected for FF in by election should be safe , FF however are running 3 candidates and Ken O’Flynn who failed to get a nomination is running as an independent and he will do them some damage. Fine Gael are running 2, Colm Burke who is seen as boring and colourless is seeking to succeed Dara Murphy, his running mate may out poll him as she at least seems to have a personality. Labour and the Greens both polled well in the by election and have an eye on Mick Barry’s Solidarity seat. Talking to people involved and living on the northside, everyone says Mick is under pressure, however given the size of the field, there are also several more indos an Aontu and SD candidate, the fact that he has extremely high recognition and a fair record of campaigning work down the years and given a likely high surplus of sf votes I think he is likely to survive. There is more over a possibility that FG could lose their seat here. The Dara Murphy affair still rankles and transfers will be hard to come by, a victory by FF, O’Flynn or Labour is an outside possibilty. Long count night for the candidates.

Cork North West
As you were 2FF 1 FG, the indo who joined FG for a nomination may now regret his decision as there are enough anti establishment votes here to elected some one not from the big 2. SF have no candidate here so it will be interesting to see where the substantial vote they got goes. Liadh Ni Riada lives in the place so pretty bad form she didn’t take on the job .

Cork South West
1Ind 1FF 1 FG. the same, as FG screwed up their once solid 2 seat ownership with bad candidates and poor work. Expexct the SD candidate Holly Cairns to poll well here and cannabilise the old Labour vote, a recovery with Paul Hayes for SF. This constituency is rapidly changing and a left seat is likely here at the next election, the race is on for pole position.

Cork East
The big question here was will Pat Buckley retain the SF seat. I think the bigger question now is will Sean Sherlock of Labour retain his seat? His FG like politics grate with many people here, but as of now I don’t see who could challenge so probably as you were. 1 Fg 1FF 1 LP 1SF

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WorldbyStorm - January 26, 2020

Thanks for that – really useful rundown

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Enzo - January 27, 2020

As a Cork North West constituent, it really is slim pickings on the left this time around.

Not even being able to hold my nose and give the provos 1st preference for the first time in my life is a disappointment. All I’ll have is the SocDems.

long way from 2016 when I was able to give my no.1 to the CPI!

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ThalmannBrigadier - January 27, 2020

Mary Linehan Foley could cause Pat Buckley trouble in Cork East. AFAIK there isn’t any Cobh based candidate running.

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14. roddy - January 26, 2020

Somewhat ironic that SF hater Barry will get elected on SF transfers.

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Jolly Red Giant - January 26, 2020

Ah come on now roddy – SF get transfers from Solidarity all the time – last election Quinlivan got elected on Solidarity transfers. And by the way – Mick Barry doesn’t hate the Shinners – he just recognises what they are, a run-of-the-mill nationalist party that uses left rhetoric.

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tafkaGW - January 27, 2020

See my data I think last week about SF in the EU parliament voting consistently with the GUE/NGL. Or is that just rhetorical?

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15. roddy - January 26, 2020

Any gamblers on this site? I just took the plunge with Paddy Power and stuck 50 of your English pounds on Kathleen Funcheon at evens.

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Joe - January 27, 2020

I came across Kathleen through work a few years back. A very nice person. She was written off at the start of the campaign but the bookies clearly are believing the polls if she’s now at evens. Would be great for her to get back in.

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16. CL - January 27, 2020

“Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern has said he believes the possibility of a Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin coalition will be discussed after the general election.

Speaking at an economics conference in Kerry, Mr Ahern said voters will determine the make up of the next Dáil and suggested a coalition of the two parties will form part of the debate.

“People change their minds very rapidly in elections so we will wait until mid February, see what the numbers look like, and then see how the cards are played but I think it is an issue we will be talking about next month,” he said.”
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/bertie-ahern-says-fianna-fail-and-sinn-fein-coalition-will-be-a-talking-point-after-election-38896813.html

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17. makedoanmend - January 27, 2020

There is no way no how no permutation nor combination in hell that SF is getting 30 seats.

They’ll do well to keep between 15-18 seats on a good day.

(Every time the MSM and establishment suggests that SF might do well, we find that their vote is consistently ~5% below electorial opinion poll published figures when the votes are counted. A consistent pattern has emerged.

Might the very suggestion that SF could do well actually harm their transfers? Afterall SF are what the Russians are to the USA Democrat party. They are used to scare the liberals; liberals being the lynch-pin that ensures the status quo. Or the more woke liberal voter votes safely for the new and improved liberal Greens.)

If they get between 15-18, they will be doing well.

After the Fianna Gael Fine Fail party resumes its rightful place as the true governors of Ireland, whatever is to the ‘left’ of them might want to find a couple of issues where their interests intersect. To like, maybe actually help vulnerable people.

Meanwhile, while waiting for the revolution, I’ve taken up learning the violin. Seems a rather appropriate instrument in these burning days.

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WorldbyStorm - January 27, 2020

I’ve been thinking about your comment this morning and I’ve got to admit there’s a lot in what you say. For SF to hold its current cohort, let alone extend it, would be a considerable achievement. This isn’t to say it isn’t possible they might get more seats just… let’s wait until results are out.

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irishelectionliterature - January 27, 2020

I know they are already going to town on the army council stuff. I wonder though what part of the new SF voters are actually influenced by the MSM.

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Joe - January 27, 2020

If you’ve had enough of FF/FG hegemony where do you go? I think SF are benefitting from their exclusion from the TV debates and from the sameiness of FF and FG and the fact that we’ve effectively had an FG/FF govt for the last number of years. And SF are benefitting from the fact that FF’s potential govt ministers are mostly mediocre and FG’s govt ministers have us in the state we’re in. And many of the SF spokespeople are impressive.
There’s a narrative that FF have been ahead of FG in all the polls so there’s a trend so it must be so. Well there’s also a trend of strong SF numbers so that must be so.
So even if we take it that SF’s actual numbers on the day may be down on their poll numbers, it still looks to me like SF will have a good day and probably get into the twenties in terms of seat numbers.

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WorldbyStorm - January 27, 2020

I’d think 20 is a reasonable point and anything above that is v good for them.

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18. Paddy Healy - January 27, 2020

Sinn Féin polled 13.8% of the popular vote in the 2016 general election and won 23 seats. If Sinn Féin underperforms their current poll ratings by 5% in the coming General Election, it will exceed its 2016 share of the vote. At a minimum ,it should get 23 seats.
It may get more than this because its credibility has increased and it may be seen as a vehicle to force changes in health, housing etc. It may not underperform its poll ratings on this occasion. Some commentators are saying that SF may regret not putting up more second candidates in constituencies.!! Its surplus may save a number of left wing candidates!

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ThalmannBrigadier - January 27, 2020

SF had a better organisation in 2016 before the repeal referendum and local infighting wiped out the party in certain area’s of the county.

On a good day, they’ll hold their present seats bar two (CW/KK ans 2nd DMW – I’m convinced they’re certain losses) and pick up Dublin West and a 2nd in Donegal.

Media will spin it as a defeat but given where the party was a year ago it’d be a good performance. Only thing they need to do is stay out of coalition this time around anyway (there’s a recession coming).

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Jim Monaghan - January 27, 2020

Though SF is not as transfer unfriendly as it used to be. This should have an effect.

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Joe - January 27, 2020

Agreed. Certainly if this voter is anything to go by.

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ThalmannBrigadier - January 27, 2020

They’re not as bad as they used to be, but go within the M50 and they still seem to be toxic. I put a good bit of it down to other left wing alternatives (e.g. PBP, SD’s) being a bit more viable in Dublin.

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19. roddy - January 27, 2020

There has for a long time been 20% of the electorate willing to vote SF and they actually came out for them in the 2014 Euro elections.If they can withstand the inevitable media onslaught ,I think that 20% is achievable this time.

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WorldbyStorm - January 27, 2020

It would be good if that were the case. But no harm in having somewhat lower expectations – as ThalmannBrigadier notes above, the media is going to spin even a good days result as a bad day.

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20. roddy - January 27, 2020

My 50 on Funcheon at evens was just in the nick of time.She’s just changed to 2/5!

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Joe - January 27, 2020

Go Kathleen!

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21. Paddy Healy - January 27, 2020

Previously when Labour had spent a Dáil term in opposition, they typically sounded left in the following election. As there really was no other substantial electoral protest vehicle, they sometimes did well-eg Springtime with Dick Spring at the helm. But on this occasion SF is much bigger than Labour. The oppressed and discontented are using Sinn Féin as the main electoral protest vehicle instead of Labour. For this reason the traditional low turn out for Sinn Féin may not occur or may not occur to the same extent.
The extent of labour collaboration with anti-working class austerity measures when last in power was unprecedented. ( The only comparable collaboration was with the first Free State government though ,technically, Labour was not part of it. With Dev abstaining from the partition parliament, being in the Dáil while the Red Flag creameries were smashed, old age pensions cut, republicans murdered without trial etc, was equivalent to being in coalition with “the Staters”)
Howlin, Burton, Kelly may have liquidated the existing Labour party as ” the political arm of the working class”
It is important that Trade union leaders be prevented from setting up a new collaborationist vehicle with new faces after this election.
FF and/or FG are never going to do other than protect the very rich Irish. If Sinn Féin go into coalition with FG and or FF it will disintegrate more quickly than the Labour Party in the aftermath of that government. Unlike the labour Party,SF does not have the trade union leadership to rescue it. It is possible that FG/FF would agree a “progressive” sounding programme for government with Sinn Fein. But as capitalism is in crisis generally in the world, there will soon be another crisis in Ireland. This will be the cover for Government dropping all progressive sounding measures and returning to austerity measures

There is a need for a serious discussion between socialists and republicans to prepare for these developments. Let us Begin on Feruary 10!

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Alibaba - January 27, 2020

There is a need for a serious discussion amongst socialists.  Let’s face facts. A truly historic opportunity for the socialist left has been missed. It’s long since gone with ULA’s demise, but given this general election was so, so obviously coming, one would have thought successful efforts were made to connect together and gain some momentum. Time has come on February 10th to deal constructively with this reality.

Liked by 3 people

Dr. X - January 28, 2020

The conclusion has to be that the far left does not unite because it cannot unite, because it’s historical patterns of organization and activism make it impossible. What then?

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tafkaGW - January 28, 2020

Vanguardists and Leninists will always split. Because they view their particular microparty as the sole legitimate vanguard of the working class – itself often imagined in antiquated industrial terms.

More inclusive, open and agile forms of organising with alliances are the order of the day. You only learn that by doing.

But we are probably learning far too slowly.

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Alibaba - January 28, 2020

The far left has squandered opportunities and it will suffer a diminished vote. As put to me by left leaning voters: “They are a joke.” I say this while acknowledging the huge effort, sincerity and talents of many people involved.

There is an appetite for something better and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. When PBP say they are seeking an alliance with Social Democrats and the Greens, you know things could be changing. Going from the unexpected rise of zero to six plus Dáil deputies and back to who knows what can tend to sharpen minds. And then maybe not.

The dispiriting record of previous times doesn’t discourage me from seeking to have problems addressed and do what is required. I suspect I am not alone in this thinking for a broad-based entity without the whiff of the controlling antics that blighted previous efforts.

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22. CL - January 27, 2020

Michael Marsh “Poll of Polls”

34 seats predicted for SF, 50 for FF. Looks like a ‘republican’ majority.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0127/1111284-poll-of-polls-ff-lead/

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - January 27, 2020

Very interesting analysis on his part. Still think SF is on the high side (though in fairness he’s drawing on the polls). Only a week and half or so to go!

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23. Joe - January 27, 2020

Léargas ar Chabhán-Muineachán ag Tuairisc.ie. Deir siad gur idir SF, FG agus Aontú a bheidh an suíochán deiridh.
https://peig.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=8bf99cfa3f6efd039979c2b17&id=7341cee4d8&e=83d2a76975

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