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Dublin South West January 27, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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A piece on my own constituency Dublin South West

Sitting TD’s – John Lahart (FF), Colm Brophy (FG), Katherine Zappone (Ind), Sean Crowe (SF), Paul Murphy (RISE)

All the TD’s are running again.

As the minute Sean Crowe would be the only outgoing TD that I’d put the house on. I’d expect him to top the poll.

Fianna Fáil are running three candidates here. Sitting TD John Lahart and Charlie O’Connor were initially selected and later Deirdre O’Donovan was added. They are after two seats here. O’Donovan polled exceptionally well in the Local Elections and has been very high profile on various issues around Rathfarnham and Knocklyon. The problem is that she is strong in an area Lahart is also strong in. She is also originally from Tallaght, so will get votes there too. I have a suspicion that if she does take a seat it could be at Laharts expense. Then again they might get the two.

Fine Gael are running Colm Brophy and Ellen O’Malley Dunlop. They were 152 votes away from winning a second seat in 2016. You’d have to think that they will win a seat. Brophy is a nice chap but given the proximity to the Virgin Media TV studios has been a regular on TV and Radio defending the indefensible.  O’Malley Dunlop has been visible enough in the Constituency but whether its enough to win a seat I don’t know.

Paul Murphy is running for RISE, he is still popular but is hampered by a smaller organisation than he had in previous times, Solidarity running Sandra Fay, Sinn Féins vote being on the up and The Greens being on an upward curve. Will be very relieved if he gets elected.

Katherine Zappone (Ind) – Having barely gotten in in 2016, she is vulnerable. She won’t be as transfer friendly this time. She has expanded her base in the last 4 years. I wonder too, as an outgoing Minister, could she be the choice for some previous FG voters who are not that impressed with the FG ticket.

Francis Noel Duffy is running for the Green Party here.  In the Local Elections he topped the poll (Got a far bigger vote in the locals than he did in the 2016 General Election). There were three Green Councillors elected in Dublin South West. Has to be in with a shout.

Ciarán Ahern is the Labour candidate. A first time candidate he will poll well in Rathfarnham, Ballyboden but won’t be in contention.

Carly Bailey is running for the Social Democrats. Won a Council seat last year, if the votes are spread out she will be transfer friendly and may be in with a shout of the final seat

Independent Councillor Mick Duff is running and should get a decent vote. Like Carly Bailey if there are a host of candidates close for the last seat is in with a shout.

Sandra Fay of Solidarity is running, won’t take a seat but will take maybe 1500 votes. Interesting to see if they transfer back to Murphy.

The National Party are running Philip Dwyer, hopefully will poll poorly. Has been fairly active canvassing around the constituency though.

I don’t expect Anne Marie Condren (Renua) or Colm O’Keeffe (Independent) to get too many votes.

So how will it pan out. At the moment I’m thinking ….. 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 GP, 1 SF and Paul Murphy…. However don’t be shocked to see FG or Murphy lose to FF or Zappone.

Comments»

1. Joe - January 27, 2020

Good on iel.
Has Charlie from FF any chance? He had a good Tallaght profile down the years.
Not 100% clear from your piece as to which of the FFers is most likely and if they scrape two, who are most likely?

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irishelectionliterature - January 27, 2020

Charlie does have a chance but if they were to get two it would be Lahart and O’Donovan I think. Lahart is the most likely if they win just one.
I do suspect that the FF/FG vote could go a bit to FF as they have better candidates. In that case Brophy would be in a bit of bother.

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Joe - January 27, 2020

It’s interesting isn’t it the, as you put it, FF/FG vote. Time was I think when you were one or the other and you’d never ping pong back and forth from one election to another.
But I met a neighbour of mine last week and we talked election. And he said he’s going to vote FF this time because he had just lent his vote to FG the last time (and maybe the time before that).
He’s a business owner. A small-time capitalist. Works hard and employs a good few people in fairness. And from a working class background in Cork city.
So I’d say the FF bit is from his family – it’s his default. But he did go PD back in the day and now more recently FG.
As I say that’s a change I think from a generation ago.

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2. Paddy Healy - January 27, 2020

As Sean Crowe has no running mate, his surplus could elect Paul Murphy!!!

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Joe - January 27, 2020

Hopefully.

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3. Jim Monaghan - January 27, 2020

Paul Murphy has to survive the initial counts to live long enough to inherit transfers. It depends on the order in which candidates are eliminated.

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4. sonofstan - January 27, 2020

At the DSW by-election in 2014 when Murphy was first elected, he and the SF candidate got very close to 60% of the vote. I’ve just checked, and FF and FG got 16% between them. This by-election happened the day after the Clacton by-election that saw UKIP take their only seat in Parliament and I remember being quite proud of this contrast.
Rather sad that now the ‘left’ (depending in whether SF count) will likely take one seat from five here.

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