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What you want to say – 29 January 2020 January 29, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.

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1. tafkaGW - January 29, 2020

George Monbiot rightly points out the absurdity of the culture of climate “targets” (ever too modest and always projected beyond the term of the current government):

When firefighters arrive at a burning building, they don’t set themselves a target of rescuing three of the five inhabitants. They seek – aware that they may not succeed – to rescue everyone they can. Their aim is to maximise the number of lives they save. In the climate emergency, our aim should be to maximise both the reduction of emissions and the drawing down of carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. There is no safe level of global heating: every increment kills.

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2. Dr. X - January 29, 2020

Those of you with the somewhat bizarre taste for far left history might find the splits and fusions blog of interest, which has plenty of left archive stuff on it.

Here is a page of their stuff from the Irish Workers Group.

https://splitsandfusions.wordpress.com/2019/10/27/the-other-irish-workers-group/

This includes their pamphlet attacking the SWM as it then was – maybe a candidate for the Irish Left Archive, if it isn’t there already?

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3. Bartholomew - January 29, 2020

A leaflet for Noel Grealish came through the door last night. I can’t see the words ‘migrant’, ‘immigration’ or ‘asylum’ anywhere on it!

(Hapy to scan or post it to Irishelectionliterature if wanted.)

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4. Paddy Healy - January 29, 2020

In relation to the General Election, there seems to be something unusual taking place in middle to working class areas. There is backlash against Fine Gael and in Dublin there is considerable hostility to Fianna Fáil also. There are indications that significant layers of the population have decided to vote Sinn Féin in order to punish the government for failing to provide adequate health, housing and other basic human requirements. AS a result of this , the tendency of Sinn Féin in the past to underform its pre-election poll rating on election day may not occur.
As Sinn Féin is only running two candidates in 4 constituencies, this means that the single candidate may have a surplus in some constituencies where Sinn Féin has a sitting deputy. The transfer of these surpluses could save the seats of some left-wing deputies.
If Sinn Féin perform as predicted by the polls on this occasion, it may be very difficult or impossible for FF or FG to form a government without SF. The only majority government available could be a FF-FG coalition. And it is possible that FF-FG together may not have enough seats! This position could lead to a drawn out political crisis of rule in the state.
In such a situation FF and FG will do anything to protect the capitalist state or even to buy time to enable the reorganisation of right-wing political forces for that purpose.
I may turn out to be wrong! But don’t rule out any coalition arrangement whatsoever in order “to save the country”!
Remember the “Inter-Party Government” of 1948.

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5. CL - January 29, 2020

Meanwhile in other polling:

“our model now thinks that Sanders has a good chance to win the first three states to vote this primary season. However, Biden remains the more likely candidate to win a delegate majority overall. So the question is, if Sanders does succeed in winning Iowa, New Hampshire and/or Nevada, will he get enough of a polling bounce to knock Biden off that perch? Or will Biden hold on and make a comeback in South Carolina — or maybe even earlier? Remember, Iowa is far from settled.”
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-sanders-is-pulling-closer-to-biden-but-hes-still-got-a-ways-to-go/

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6. Paddy Healy - January 29, 2020

I am told by canvassers that the strong performance by Richard Boyd-Barret in the leaders’ debate is resonating at doorsteps.

There seems to be a greater political engagement by young people with this election than with previous elections

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7. Stan - January 29, 2020

Only noticed it now, but Beloved Leader apparently said in the debate that the average income in Ireland was €47k -which is apparently true, but meaningless: the median – a much truer indication of what most working people earn is €35k. And they let him away with it.

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2020

I would bet many people in the media are unaware of or indifferent to the distinction. And yet as you say it is crucial

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Dermot M O Connor - January 29, 2020

Right!!! Ten people in a room average income $50K a year, Bill gates walks in and now the average person in the room is a millionaire!

Ah, Irish media, they’ll never get it together will they? Never wonder if they played a role in the boom/bust/crash.

Not only that, you can be rent poor very easily. Make 100K in San Francisco, say, where renting an apt. costs $3500 a month, and factor in tax, and your retirement is far from certain. Dublin and Ireland are no different; making an OK income and it’s all going out the door, so typical Irish pol sophistry / jesuistry.

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Paddy Healy - January 29, 2020

Stan and Dermot are so right! There is continuous misuse by politicians of the mean for the average rather than the median. The difference of12k between the median and the mean in incomes shows just how unfair the distribution of incomes is in Ireland. In the unlikely event of my teaching this again, I will use Dermots Bill Gates example!

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8. Dermot M O Connor - January 29, 2020

*IF* this RTE podcast is correct, this bodes to be a very good election for SF, with the 19% number pricing in the lower turnout that’s usual with their supporters by the pollsters (they knock 2% off, so the original support was closer to 21). We’ve been mentally knocking off 2 or 3% of the offical %, but that’s already been done, so the 19 and 20 numbers are more tangible than many might think.

https://www.rte.ie/radio1/podcast/podcast_yourpolitics.xml

It’s the episode titled ‘Ourselves Apart’.

27m mark on the canvas, a FF woman telling MLM she’s voting SF for the first time, FF lifers going SF!!! (for local reasons, but still, shows SF going for FF on the local level). A lot of people engaging with MLM spontaneously. Very different doorstep reaction from the locals.

FFS, people & politics, I’ll never understand them.

Also bodes very badly for Labour. Given the Green surge, RBB / PBP bump, and the SF machine, how in hell can they gain seats? Howlin better be praying for the pollsters to be wrong en masse.

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9. Starkadder - January 29, 2020

“The Spectator” Magazine has given Gavin McInnes, the alt-right activist, advocate of the “white genocide in the West” conspiracy theory, transphobe and advocate of “ironic” Antisemitism, a platform to rant.

https://zelo-street.blogspot.com/2020/01/spectator-promotes-racist-thug.html

As if this Hipster Achille Starace and his Proud Boy goons weren’t the ones trying to silence and ostracize trans people, Native Americans, liberal,socialists and others.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/427524-proud-boy-threatens-portland-mayor-in-fb-video-report

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Starkadder - January 30, 2020

Quelle Surprise. Nick Cohen, Polly Toynbee, Rachel Riley and the rest of the “Corbyn has an Anti-Semitism problem” haven’t said anything about the Spectator hiring an writer who poses with anti-Semitic books:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-the-toxic-appeal-of-gavin-mcinnes-hip-fascism-1.6681962

Taki and McInnes? I expect the Spectator will be hiring David Irving at this rate.

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10. CL - January 30, 2020

“The remarkable impact of the life, writings and death on hunger strike of Lord Mayor of Cork Terence McSwiney on the birth of the Indian nation was recalled at a special event in Cork to mark Indian independence.”
The Indian Ambassador to Ireland, Sandeep Kumar said “”India’s relationship with Cork is rooted in our freedom struggle – shared history, shared pain, shared peace,” he said.
“Even the colours of our flags are the same and in the context of Cork, we have your martyred Lord Mayor who influenced some of the Indian freedom struggle leaders who embraced the philosophy of non violence and peace.”
City librarian, Liam Roynayne, recalled the international influence that MacSwiney had on Indian nationalists, including the ‘father of the nation’ Mahatma Gandhi….
Mr Ronayne pointed out that at that time, Ireland and India were both part of the British Empire – Ireland its oldest colony and India its largest – and that this “networks of empire” allowed what happened in one to influence what happened in another….
“Principles of Freedom was translated into various Indian languages including Telugu.”
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/terence-macswineys-international-influence-recalled-as-cork-hosts-its-first-india-day-celebration-978066.html

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11. sonofstan - January 31, 2020

Next FF leader? Any thoughts?
I’m sure McGrath fancies it, but too similar to MM, too much the previous generation?
Lisa Chambers? – too young still?
Jim O’Callaghan? – too Dublin?

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irishelectionliterature - January 31, 2020

Will be a very interesting contest in that aside from Michael McGrath, there aren’t too many frontrunners. You could have 10 or so TD’s expressing an interest.
McGrath would be the favourite.
Dara Calleary and John McGuinness might be two names to watch.
Lisa Chambers might struggle to hold her seat, Jim O’Callaghan maybe too.

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12. tafkaGW - January 31, 2020

I wanted to compare SF, the Green Party and Solidarity/PBPs manifestos on climate change and rural development. The SF and GP manifestos are easy enough to find.

But when I click on the relevant bit on the Solidarity Web page I get a ‘not found’ error. Does anyone know where to find it?

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irishelectionliterature - January 31, 2020

http://michaelpidgeon.com/manifestos/election.html There’s a PBP one there but nothing yet from Solidarity

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tafkaGW - January 31, 2020
13. tafkaGW - January 31, 2020

I note that SF haven’t been laggardly in pointing out that the way back into the EU for people in NI is via political unification of the Island of Ireland. 🙂

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14. tafkaGW - January 31, 2020

Furthermore of the parliaments/assemblies within the dUK three out of four refused consent to the Withdrawal Agreement being enacted today.

Some federal system they’ve got there.

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CL - January 31, 2020

Yes, but the one giving consent has 85% of the total population.

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tafkaGW - January 31, 2020

However the ‘unwritten agreement’ that constitutes part of the non-written quasi-constitution of the dUK says that consensus should be found with, say, the Scottish Parliament, on constitutional changes that effect the Scottish people

Some constitution they’ve got there.

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15. roddy - January 31, 2020

I was in Donegal yesterday and the election was in full swing.Saw FF canvassing houses as you enter Letterkenny.Posters and banners everywhere including big ones for Casey.SF’s Padraig had several banner type ones,each highlighting different issues and also plenty of no hopers with a lot of posters including a holy Josephine for Aontu and some eejit of an independent holding a dog.Can’t see Casey going anywhere either which is a damn good job as there are too many “independents” ranging from credible candidates like Pringle to total nut jobs.

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Joe - January 31, 2020

How many seats up there? What’s the prediction? Two SF, two FF, 1FG? It would be nice to see Pringle beat one of the FFers or FGers.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 31, 2020

https://www.thejournal.ie/donegal-general-election-opinion-poll-4977114-Jan2020/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/donegal-poll-finds-sinn-féin-may-take-seat-from-independent-or-fianna-fáil-1.4149445

The poll conducted for TG4 by Ipsos/MRBI found Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty is likely to receive a quota and a half, with 27 per cent of first preference votes.

Fine Gael’s Joe McHugh is in second place at 17 per cent of first preference votes. Mr MacLochlainn, on 12 per cent, could regain the seat he lost in the 2016 general election from Mr Doherty’s surplus.

There remains a possibility Fianna Fáil could win two seats in the five-seater constituency, where the party’s candidates are Charlie McConalogue, on 12 per cent in the poll, and Pat “The Cope” Gallagher, on 10 per cent.

The last seat looks like a battle for transfers between one of the Fianna Fáil candidates and Mr Pringle, on 6 per cent.

Independent Peter Casey got 2 per cent in the poll, and Green candidate Michael White recorded 4 per cent.

The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday. A sample of 550 attaches a margin of error of up to plus or minus four percentage points.

Martin Harley of Fine Gael got 3 per cent; Aontú’s Mary T Sweeney 3 per cent; Independent John O’Donnell 4 per cent; and Independent Niall McConnell 1 per cent.

Parsing the figure more cleanly than the lazy IT:

PARTY:

SF 38%
FF 22%
FG 20%
IND 19%

CANDIDATES:

SF Pearse Doherty 27%

FG Joe McHugh 17%

SF MacLochlainn 12%

FF Charlie McConalogue 12%

Pat “The Cope” Gallagher 10%

IND Pringle, 6%

IND Peter Casey 2%

Green Michael White 4%

FG Martin Harley 3%

Aontú Mary T Sweeney 3%

IND John O’Donnell 4%

IND Niall McConnell 1%

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16. Dermot M O Connor - January 31, 2020

Gah, stupid blockquote tags.

Parsing the figure more cleanly than the lazy IT:

PARTY:

SF 38%
FF 22%
FG 20%
IND 19%

CANDIDATES:

SF Pearse Doherty 27%

FG Joe McHugh 17%

SF MacLochlainn 12%

FF Charlie McConalogue 12%

Pat “The Cope” Gallagher 10%

IND Pringle, 6%

IND Peter Casey 2%

Green Michael White 4%

FG Martin Harley 3%

Aontú Mary T Sweeney 3%

IND John O’Donnell 4%

IND Niall McConnell 1%

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Joe - January 31, 2020

Ta DMOC. Pringle would probably need more than 6% first prefs to be in with a shout. Still, counts are fun and strange things happen.

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Dermot M O Connor - January 31, 2020

Yeah, though small sample size and large MOE, so not out yet.

The opinion poll was carried out on Monday and Tuesday of this week – 550 people were surveyed and there is a margin of error of up to plus or minus four percentage points.

Hopefully Pearse’s surplus will help him as well as MacLoclhainn.

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WorldbyStorm - January 31, 2020

Don’t agree w Pringle on everythibg but he is a very decent person and a good TD

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17. roddy - January 31, 2020

Joe,as I live 60 miles from Letterkenny,I would have no on the ground knowledge.However Dermot has given a good summary of a local poll.I encountered the FFers as they were canvassing what looked like a well to do house and I decided to see if I could get a bit of banter with them.I was emerging from a business premises and had to stop and took the opportunity to reach my hand out to them requesting a leaflet.However all I got was extremely surly looks from all 3 of them,so I went on my way.I don’t know if this was a sign of them getting a poor reception on the doors or if they just didn’t want any interaction with a shady looking individual in a northern registered work vehicle!

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CL - January 31, 2020

Clealy, they suspected you of being a suspicious person.

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18. Paddy Healy - January 31, 2020

I hope that Thomas Pringle makes it. He polled 8.5% on first count in 2016 and transferred strongly to pip Pádraig Mac Lochlainn for the last seat. Given the 4% MoE in the poll, he could be doing at least as well this time. The threat to the fishing industry in his home base of Killybegs from Brexit could help him this time.

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19. Stan - February 1, 2020

Greetings from not the EU

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WorldbyStorm - February 1, 2020

Strange strange days

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Joe - February 1, 2020

Stan a chara, mon ami, amigo. Always know that you will be welcome over here in Europe always and forever.

I’m just home from a camogie fundraiser night in the local GAA cllub. I won a packet of dark chocolate Dutch biscuits in the raffle. And guess what, we did a coundown to Brexit at 11pm minus 30 secs. Cue a chorus of “We hate ta see ya go, we hate ta see ya go, What da fook are ya waitin for, we hate ta see ya go.”

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Stan - February 1, 2020

Living in a suburb of a remain voting city that is almost entirely populated by either students or people who work in the universities, 11pm passed with the sound of a single firework from miles away. Lots of subdued anger yesterday at work: a colleague who I strongly suspect votes tory, was wearing a tie with an EU crest on it – which considering he never wears a tie normally, was quite a statement. Lots of EU flags in gardens around here as well.
Going for lunch with another colleague, from another EU country, and his wife, from yet another one – bloody foreigners, coming over here and marrying each other -,and it feels a bit like the meeting of a resistance cell – they do live in a leave voting town, and don’t have the cake-ist assurance we paddies have of being able to be appalled at the whole thing while comfortable in our special status.

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20. CL - February 1, 2020

Now that Sinn Fein is one of the ‘Big Two’ of Irish politics it must be careful of who it considers as a coalition partner.
If Varadkar comes knocking on Mary Lou’s door he should be questioned in particular about Fine Gael’s association with such world-class predators as Peter Sutherland.

Sutherland ” was a man whose promotion of corporate rapacity and impunity had helped blow up the Celtic Tiger bubble (and the global financial bubble more broadly) to begin with, and who was then demanding that the most vulnerable sectors of Irish society pick up the tab for its bursting…
Sutherland’s corporate career mainly consisted of “poisoning the earth and crashing the global economy”…
He was absolutely central to a model of capitalism that became ever more environmentally destructive and dangerously speculative in nature. And when the system crashed in Ireland, he led calls for costs to be imposed on those who had benefited least (if at all) from it”
http://drb.ie/essays/paper-thin-walls

Sutherland’s predation was nurtured within Fine Gael and in Ireland’s class-based society of privilege for the few and exploitation for the many.
As we remember this year how Kevin Barry was murdered by British imperialism it is important to to remember the social and cultural milieu from which the Fine Gael political formation emerged.

Sutherland’s best friend at UCD was Paddy Cosgrave.

“Cosgrave was very much to the right and revelled in the label ‘west Brit’…He used to boast that his grandfather, a warden in Kilmainham Jail, had beaten up a young Kevin Barry” (Walsh’s book)

Given Fine Gael’s far right origins and current class interests Varadkar must be asked to explain in detail why he thinks his party is a suitable coalition partner for Sinn Fein.

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Gotterfunken - February 1, 2020

Cosgrave was at Trinity, not UCD? (For what it’s worth)

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CL - February 1, 2020

‘At University College Dublin (UCD), he was influenced by Desmond Williams, professor of history….
His first marriage in 1965 was to Ruth Dudley Edwards, a fellow student at UCD ‘
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Cosgrave

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CL - February 1, 2020

‘Aithníonn ciaróg….

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Daniel Rayner O'Connor - February 1, 2020

Yep, P.Cosgrave was a student at UCD when I was one at TCD. We met on occasional bi-college occasions.

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CL - February 2, 2020

“rebel songs are in our DNA – even if we know only a few lines of them….
And there’s the ballad of the 18-year-old student Kevin Barry, hanged in 1920 for his part in the murder of three British soldiers, which I’m sure is still sung in the alma mater of both of us, University College Dublin: “Another martyr for old Ireland;/Another murder for the crown,/Whose brutal laws to crush the Irish,/Could not keep their spirit down.”
In Sinn Fein world, they sing these and dozens more like true believers. But though in recent years the bulk of Irish people did not take them very literally and many sang them ironically, the tribal impulses are latent…And it hasn’t taken long for Leo Varadkar to wear the green for his own electoral purposes.
https://reaction.life/ill-informed-fintan-otoole-stoked-irish-republican-narrative-grievance/

RDE wrote this a year ago.

Wonder if she blames F O’Toole for the popularity of ‘Come Out Ye Black and Tans’, or does Varadkar get the credit?

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