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The never-ending Brexit crisis… January 31, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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TAFKA made a good point re Brexit this week that it is time to focus on what happens to this state and island as distinct from the UK. And the news about that – well, it’s not exactly heartening.

According to a confidential memorandum to be circulated to [ROI] Ministers, even the best-case scenario for an agreement between the EU and UK would cause serious problems for businesses importing from, and exporting to, the UK.
“Even an ambitious and deep agreement, if such were achievable in the short timeframe, will not be the status quo and will involve considerable disruption,” it states.
But officials express doubt the agreement can be concluded by the end of the year when the transition period is to end and the UK will no longer be covered by EU rules.

How, though, could it be otherwise. Trade moves from the context of a single market and customs area to the opposite situation – with all the delays, checks and so forth necessary between two different areas. It has often been said, indeed it has been reiterated numerous times on this very site, that any situation other than the status quo ante is a lesser situation.

And this has very real ramifications for this state – the IT notes that we can expect in 2030 that the ROI economy will be 7% smaller in the event of a no-deal Brexit. That would see unemployment at least a couple of percentage points higher. And with an FTA? Somewhere between 3 and 4% smaller economy-wise.

The Financial Times points to other aspects of this – complication piled on complication in terms of goods imported from Britain to NI and then the question – on to the ROI/EU, or not?

And meanwhile in London the government, or at least the PM, continues to say there will be no checks between NI and Britain.

Which prompts the question, what is going to give and where on all this?

Comments»

1. CL - February 1, 2020

“But by fulfilling his pledge, Mr. Johnson has won enormous good will from nationalist voters across England and Wales. Outside the European Union, he will also have more scope to change the British government’s role in the economy. This gives him a unique opportunity do what his predecessors could not: build a lasting popular base for the Conservative Party. Mr. Johnson can now take advantage of his big majority to overhaul British capitalism, incentivizing long-term Conservative voters while permanently annexing chunks of the Labour Party’s historic base….
He is not out to roll back the state. Instead, he is out to secure the support of working-class voters who handed over to the Tories dozens of seats formerly held by Labour. ….
Tellingly, he distanced himself from the last government. He would end austerity, raise spending on the National Health Service, guarantee pensions, raise the minimum wage and borrow £100 billion to invest in infrastructure….
And since the election, the government has acted to carry out its commitments, passing legislation to guarantee N.H.S. spending increases and proposing moderate improvements to workers’ and renters’ rights. It has also promised that most of the infrastructure spending will be invested in England’s deprived northern regions — and this week backed up the promise by nationalizing the north’s major rail service….
Many of the policies are directly taken from Labour’s plans….
A more interventionist state is a way to shore up a lasting, broad coalition.”-Richard Seymour

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