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Cool on coalition? February 12, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Just reading this the thought strikes it will be interesting if some of those supposedly ‘cool’ on entering a coalition with Sinn Féin suddenly find themselves a bit hotter about entering a coalition with Fianna Fáil – won’t it? Given that:

It comes as Micheál Martin began to make contact with the leaders of the smaller parties yesterday, and a Fianna Fáil-led minority administration underpinned from Opposition by Fine Gael is not being ruled out by senior Fianna Fáil figures.
Mr Martin would have the numbers in the Dáil if he won the support of the Greens, Labour, Social Democrats and some Independents and got Leo Varadkar to commit to a confidence-and-supply arrangement.

In fairness, at this point the rhetoric from the LP for example, is of at best external support for a government. But which government?

Speaking of which, the linked piece above notes that whatever happens to Leo Varadkar, he and his Ministers will continue in office as a ‘caretaker’ Government until a new one is arrived at. Could be there a while, so.

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1. Dermot M O Connor - February 12, 2020

So imagine this, you wake up and look in the mirror. You see Michael Martin’s face staring back at you. Yes, you have entered the Twilight Zone.

So you’re MM. And you’re not happy. Almost 4 years ago you thought you’d managed a really great wheeze: the FF/FG coalition suggested by the numbers then, the only govt. capable of being in power and not just in office, would make you Taoiseach (rotating) with Enda. But the danger is that you would leave SF as opposition, where they could grow in size, maybe even equal FF or, god forbid, surpass you. What’s a canny corkman to do? I know! Supply/Confidence! We’ll prop up a minority FG govt., and pull the plug when the time is right.

Sure it’ll only last a year.

Time passes, and the time is never right. Brexit and cruddy poll numbers, so all you can do is sit in opposition as your 60th birthday draws ever nearer, watching all those blueshirts and the dirtbag indos enjoying the perks of high office.

The days grind on. The polls throw the occasional rogue sliver of hope, but most have you around the 24% you got in 2016. Can’t pull the plug, got to sit here on the hard, unheated opposition benches. Christ, you can smell the stench of the unwashed Trots sitting behind you.
“The worst day in government is better than the best day in opposition”, that Harney woman’s words go through your head as you watch this upstart Varadkar win the Taoiseach’s chair.

“God almighty, I’ll be 60 soon, and I’ve only one chance, but at least we’ll crush them in the election in 2020. Sure, if the MOE breaks our way, it’ll be FF/LAB/GREEN and I’ll have five years it’ll be grand.”

“The exit poll is coming, thanks be to jazus. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1”

“Oh god no.”

“Wait now wait, the MOE might save us yet. Sure if we’re on 23.7 and the others are on 21 we might just about scrape in and…”

12 hours later “Oh christ”.

24 hours later “Ahhhhh FFFFFFUccccccc”

*

So MM looks at numbers that were surely unimaginable from the viewpoint of 2016. Almost FOUR YEARS in opposition (years when, remember, he could have been in government with FG. He could have filled half the cabinet with FFuckers, and they could have handed out the bennies. He could have fought this election with 2 years as Taoiseach under his belt) and he has nothing to show for it. NOTHING. Almost 4 years in opposition and down in the FPV and down 6 seats, a complete disaster. Four years down the toilet!

And the other horror in MM’s mind: if the election can’t produce a govt., then a second election beckons. And no reason why SF won’t enjoy the continued support base from the first one. And this time they’ll run 20 more candidates. On their 24% base they could have won from 7 to 11 more candidates, so the second election could easily produce

SF50 FF33 FG29 or thereabouts.

That’s his mindset now, going into any coalition talks. Any smaller parties will have him over a barrel.

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2. Stan - February 13, 2020

Would I be right in saying that, if FF get a C&S from FG, they would still need to coalesce with enough others to have a majority in the case of an FG abstention: so 160 – 35 FG – CC =124 meaning FF + others needs to reach 62 at least in order to govern?

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Dermot M O Connor - February 13, 2020

Yeah, that’s pretty much the deal last time. FF gave supply/CON, but only if FG could get a majority of the remaining. But as FF stood down 44 seats in 2016, FG standing down 36 now would mean a slightly higher threshold for a majority. 58 was the target in 2016, 62 now.

You can also give the CC position to the opposition, reducing the opposition numbers – but if FG is abstaining, they’d want to give it to an indie.

62 is a wafer also, former min. govts have survived a while on a 2 or 3 seat majority, but it could as easily collapse in 6 months.

FF38
GR12

gives 50, still need 12, yikes.

SDs 6, ok, still need 6.

plenty of gene pool FF indies, Haely Raes can be bought with a few roads and the like, still need 4.

Doable, but a lot of moving parts, and if the Greens have any cop-on left in them they’ll say “no bloody way”. But I fear they’ll run at the chance for 3 or 4 senior ministries, to be followed by another two terms as roadkill (organic, but roadkill nonetheless).

Even a FF/FG coalition is 6 shy of a majority. Can be done with indos, but apparently that’s a nightmare. One of Bertie’s minority shitshows did it, but it took Seamus Brennan’s skills to keep that working. He begged Bertie to never have him do that job again, IIRC. But still might be easier to buy off indies that sacrifice two or 3 senior ministries to SDs or Greens. If greens have the sense god gave geese they’d demand the CC role for one of theirs. That way, when they get wiped out in the next GE, they’ll at least have one TD left in place to keep the dail recycle bins properly filled.

Either way they do it, PITA, and with potential for flying apart at the first crisis, with a second GE to follow.

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3. EWI - February 13, 2020

The absolute hysterics by the Irish Times continues to this day – the wailing and gnashing of teeth over not getting their celebration of the Crown Forces leading right into rending of clothes and claiming the beginning of a pogrom if SF comes to coalition power.

Astonishing stuff, and likely puts paid to their posing in recent times as the evenhanded ‘paper of record’. This lot fancy themselves as players.

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Dermot M O Connor - February 13, 2020

Haha! Told ye so! What we did the last time didn’t work, so let’s do even more of it! Maybe WE DIDN’T SCREAM LOUD ENOUGH!

SCREAM LOUDER THAT’LL DO IT!

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