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Good prediction! February 21, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Revisiting Michael Marsh, hats off to him for being remarkably close in his TCD/RTÉ polls of polls. No messing around for him

He noted on the 3rd of February, only days before the election that:

The table below shows where these trends leave the parties at present, with Fianna Fáil marginally ahead of Sinn Féin, 23.5% to 22.5%, and Fine Gael in third place with 20%. Green lead the rest with 8.5%. It is striking that the combined Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael vote is less that 44%, the lowest we have seen at any point since polling began, and a long way below the figure of 65% seen in 2017. Sinn Féin’s rise is also remarkable, well up on its polling before Christmas and more than twice its local election vote last year, normally a good guide to the next election.

And the projections?

FF on 41-44 (prediction 43)
FG 33-35 (prediction 34)
SF 40-42 (prediction 42)
GP 11-13 (prediction 12)
LP 5-7 (prediction 6)
SOC DEM 4-6 (prediction 5)
SOL-PBP 2-4 (prediction 3)
IND/OTHER 12-18 (prediction 15)

At the time SF looked too high for me, and by quite a bit. But… in truth he was only 3 out from his lower figure for SF. 4 out for FF, and just about bang on for FG, GP, LP, SOC-DEM, SOL-PBP and IND/Other. Indeed he wrote at the time:

The prediction of 42 seats here is almost certainly too high, but if the party did win 22% of the vote, the likelihood is that it would have enough votes to win two seats in several places where it is fielding only one candidate. The most important feature is that the largest party, Fianna Fáil, is expected to win well short of even the 50 seats won by Fine Gael in 2016. This would present severe problems for Micheál Martin when trying to form a government. And with Fine Gael only on just 34, even a historic break with the past in the form of a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition might not solve the problem. Their combined seat total would be short of the 80 seats needed for a majority, although the most positive estimates for both would sum to 79.


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