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That latest opinion poll March 1, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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As noted in comments, the Sunday Times/B&A opinion poll out yesterday evening will make for anxious reading by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in particular.

SF 35% +10 (from the GE)

FF 20% -2

FG 18% -3

IND 10% -3

GP 6% -1

LP 3% -1

SD 2% -1

PBP-SOL 3% NC

AONTÚ 1% -1

So SF continues to draw support from across the political spectrum, which is interesting in and of itself – and that suggests that the marginal changes seen across parties are a real phenomenon even if the direction amongst and between them (bar SF) is not necessarily captured by the poll.

But looking at the figures in the round the inescapable conclusion is that no-one, except for SF, would want an election tomorrow. The Phoenix has an interesting analysis in the current edition (well worth a read, as always) suggesting that on Election Day FF and M. Martin in particular expected in later counts for FF to beef up its seat numbers, and thereby be in a strong position to lead a coalition (even with SF) as the larger party than all others. We know now how that plan worked out, but it would explain the equivocation between his initial statements on coalition on the day of the count and later much harsher language culminating in his speech in the Dáil on the day it returned. In a sense SF had moved from significant to existential threat for FF, and the poll figures above seem to underscore that that dynamic continues. Which leaves FF and FG with a huge political problem for the short and medium term. Another election? Not soon, that’s for sure.

Comments»

1. Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

McDonald over 50%, Martin 31% DOWN 15% in B&A Poll, Varadkar at about half of Mary Lou’s satisfaction rating!!!
Party Leader Satisfaction Rating https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
McDonald (SF) 53% (+15)
Martin (FF) 31% (-15)
Howlin (LAB) 29% (-9)
Varadkar (FG) 27% (-8)

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2. sonofstan - March 1, 2020

Not in Kansas anymore…

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - March 1, 2020

I just look at 35% and think, how long is it since FF had that sort of support? As you say, we’re not in Kansas anymore.

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3. Tomboktu - March 1, 2020

How sustainable is it? That poll and the general election are less than 12 months after Sinn Féin lost nearly half its seats in the local elections and more in the European elections.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - March 1, 2020

Without the shadow of a doubt it’s a floating vote. And I think some of it can be clawed back by an interventionist FF/FG coalition. But… it still stands that the largish parties won’t want an election anytime soon, doesn’t it?

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - March 1, 2020

I find it difficult to see how FF in particular are going to claw back (or bring in for the first time) any of the voters they need to arrest long-term decline.

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

Am I doing something objectionable? I’ve been blocked from posting. I was putting up details of the poll which are now available on banda.ie

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

When I remove the link to my wordpress blog, I find I can post

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Tomboktu - March 1, 2020

Paddy,
They were is the spam folder. No note saying any of the admins had put them there, so it was the software.

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WorldbyStorm - March 2, 2020

Just to add to Tomboktus points Paddy apologies – as JRG has discovered WordPress is v v unforgiving of links in comments – but you’re certainly not blocked it’s a case of WordPress being over sensitive

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

Sinn Féin’s Share of the Vote In B&A Poll was 42% not 35% !!!!
In the Unadjusted Raw Poll (Core Vote) Sinn Féin got 7% more than FF and FG COMBINED
From B&A Website
Raw Poll “Core Vote”
SF37 FF 16 FG 14 Lab2 Greens/Independents/All others 18 Undecided 13
Eliminating “undecided”
SF 42 FF 18 FG16 Lab 3 Greens/Independents/All others 21
Result Adjusted by B&A
SF 35 FF 20 FG 18 Lab 3 Greens/Independents/Others 24

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

B&A Poll https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
Sinn Féin’s strongest region was Rest of Leinster where it led with 48%, and and its second strongest region was Dublin City and County where it led with 44% support after don’t knows and “will not vote” were excluded. Sinn Féin also led in Munster with 40% support and in Connacht-Ulster with 35% support. Sinn Féin was the leading party in all four regions.

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

B&A Poll
Sinn Féin’s strongest region was Rest of Leinster where it led with 48%, and and its second strongest region was Dublin City and County where it led with 44% support after don’t knows and “will not vote” were excluded. Sinn Féin also led in Munster with 40% support and in Connacht-Ulster with 35% support. Sinn Féin was the leading party in all four regions.

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4. socialistfight - March 1, 2020

Reblogged this on Socialist Fight and commented:
Again demonstrating that you cannot judge the politics of Ireland by the lrft right standards of British and other imperialist countries. Ireland is a combination of semi coloney in the south and occupied coloney of Britain in the north. SF benefits because a united Ireland looms and most Irish people do not want the Black and Tans back.

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Joe - March 1, 2020

“Ireland is a combination of semi coloney in the south and occupied coloney of Britain in the north.”
What a load of old boloney.

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E - March 1, 2020

col – looney? Not sure about that but have a look at this http://www.marxists.de/ireland/neocolony/index.htm

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tafkaGW - March 1, 2020

Collooney is a fine place. Don’t knock it.

Liked by 1 person

tafkaGW - March 2, 2020

However Coolaney – that’s another kettle of fish, entirely.

The inhabitants only came down from the mountains a couple of decades ago and they stare hungrily from their primitive huts at strangers and display their filed teeth. Don’t be caught there after dark.

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5. Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

On RTE radio now , the urgent need for the formation of a new government is being discussed because of the need to deal with corona virus, Brexit developments etc etc.
Here is what I posted on Feb 26
“There is to be no vote on the appointment of Taoiseach when the Dáil meets next week! Fine Gael hasn’t even appointed a negotiating team yet!!! As I said in an earlier post: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil may be simply killing time until something turns up to generate a demand for the immediate putting in place of a government which can pass new legislation. Something arising out of the Corona virus, or out of a breach of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement etc, would have the media baying for the formation of a government. Then FF and FG could portray themselves as “putting country above party” by forming a government!!!!

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6. Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

McDonald over 50%, Martin 31% DOWN 15% in B&A Poll
Party Leader Satisfaction Rating https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
McDonald (SF) 53% (+15)
Martin (FF) 31% (-15)
Howlin (LAB) 29% (-9)
Varadkar (FG) 27% (-8)

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7. tomasoflatharta - March 1, 2020

Paddy Healy shrewdly describes FFFG “killing time” manoeuvres. In the meantime we still have an FG government. But the Real World will eventually put a stop to prevarication. On 12 February a team from the European Commission met a group of Northern Ireland business organisations at the University of Ulster campus in Belfast.
— Read on http://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0229/1118290-brexit-blog-tony-connelly/

It is time for the Irish Radical Left to Get Real about Brexit.

EU Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier has responded to the British Government which is attempting to Waive the Rules – Perfidious Albion is playing ancient tricks. https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2020/03/01/the-deepening-standoff-over-the-irish-protocol/

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8. Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

Sinn Féin’s Share of the Vote In B&A Poll was 42% not 35% in UNADJUSTED figures !!!! https://wp.me/pKzXa-jh
In the Unadjusted Raw Poll (Core Vote) Sinn Féin got 7% more than FF and FG COMBINED
From B&A Website
Raw Poll “Core Vote”
SF37 FF 16 FG 14 Lab2 Greens/Independents/All others 18 Undecided 13
Eliminating “undecided”
SF 42 FF 18 FG16 Lab 3 Greens/Independents/All others 21
Result Adjusted by B&A
SF 35 FF 20 FG 18 Lab 3 Greens/Independents/Others 24

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9. Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

Social Category C2DE (Poorer half of Population) %
SF41 FF 15 FG 12 Lab2 Greens/Independents/All others 15 Don’t Know/Will not vote 14
After Don’t Know/Will not vote were eliminated %
SF48 FF 17 FG 14 Lab2 Greens/Independents/All others 17
Region
Sinn Féin’s strongest region was Rest of Leinster (outside of Co Dublin) where SF got 48% of the votes after Don’t Know/Will Not Vote were excluded

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10. Dermot M O Connor - March 1, 2020

AGE BREAKDOWN, yikes.

Behaviour and Attitudes
17-25 February, 2020

18-34 Years
SF: 52%
FG: 14%
FF: 13%
GRN: 6%
SPBP: 4%
SD: 2%
LAB: 2%
AON: 1%
IND/OTH: 6%

35-54 Years
SF: 35%
FG: 18%
FF: 18%
GRN: 7%
LAB: 4%
SD: 3%
SPBP: 2%
AON: 0%
IND/OTH: 13%

55+ Years
SF: 26%
FF: 26%
FG: 21%
GRN: 5%
LAB: 3%
SPBP: 2%
SD: 2%
AON: 1%
IND/OTH: 14%

*

REGIONS

Dublin
SF: 36% (+8)
FG: 17% (-3)
FF: 13%
S-PBP: 8% (+1)
GP: 7% (-5)
LAB: 6%
SD: 4% (-1)
AON: 1%

Leinster (No Dublin)
SF: 40% (+14)
FF: 22% (-2)
FG: 15% (-6)
GP: 6%
LAB: 4% (-1)
SD: 1% (-2)

Connacht-Ulster
SF: 28%
FG: 28%
FF: 17%
GP: 6%
SD: 3%
S-PBP: 1%
LAB: 0%
AON: 0%

Munster
SF: 34%
FF: 25%
FG: 16%
GP: 5%
LAB: 1%
SD: 1%
AON: 1%
S-PBP: 0%

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Dermot M O Connor - March 1, 2020

Dub % very good for Sol/PBP, no sign of SF hurting them. Greens though, ouch.

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Paddy Healy - March 1, 2020

You have presented the raw poll figures in the regions. The reason that my figures for Sinn Féin are higher is that I eliminated the don’t knows and the “will not vote”figures and recalculated the percentages.

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11. CL - March 2, 2020

“Sinn Fein managed to win the ‘election for change’ with help from a social media following that doesn’t engage with traditional media….
Facebook is where the ‘Shinners’ get most of their engagement and they have over a 160,000 more followers than the two traditionally bigger parties….
Sinn Fein’s social media team are miles ahead of the civil war parties and this can largely be put down to the ‘Shinners’ early adoption of new technologies to communicate and their historic use of counter-cultural — or rebel — language which became the motif of the ‘change’ election.
Look no further than Ogra Sinn Fein’s Tik Tok account to see the effective use of their latest social media platforms that young people are engaged with.
In one video, a young girl mirrors the image of herself while singing about being her mirror image’s twin — one image is labelled Fine Gael and the other Fianna Fail.”
https://extra.ie/2020/02/29/news/politics/how-sinn-feins-social-media-approach-allowed-them-to-circumvent-traditional-media-for-ge2020

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roastedsnow1 - March 2, 2020

Funny isn’t it that SF was a Civil War Party. But despite FF leaving SF, SF never went away you know. I always laugh when paople talk about the Civil War parties. But I get why they would.

Liked by 1 person


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