That latest opinion poll

As noted in comments, the Sunday Times/B&A opinion poll out yesterday evening will make for anxious reading by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in particular.

SF 35% +10 (from the GE)

FF 20% -2

FG 18% -3

IND 10% -3

GP 6% -1

LP 3% -1

SD 2% -1

PBP-SOL 3% NC

AONTÚ 1% -1

So SF continues to draw support from across the political spectrum, which is interesting in and of itself – and that suggests that the marginal changes seen across parties are a real phenomenon even if the direction amongst and between them (bar SF) is not necessarily captured by the poll.

But looking at the figures in the round the inescapable conclusion is that no-one, except for SF, would want an election tomorrow. The Phoenix has an interesting analysis in the current edition (well worth a read, as always) suggesting that on Election Day FF and M. Martin in particular expected in later counts for FF to beef up its seat numbers, and thereby be in a strong position to lead a coalition (even with SF) as the larger party than all others. We know now how that plan worked out, but it would explain the equivocation between his initial statements on coalition on the day of the count and later much harsher language culminating in his speech in the Dáil on the day it returned. In a sense SF had moved from significant to existential threat for FF, and the poll figures above seem to underscore that that dynamic continues. Which leaves FF and FG with a huge political problem for the short and medium term. Another election? Not soon, that’s for sure.