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That new RedC poll… March 29, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Roddy mentioned it in comments, and remarkably RedC and the Sunday Business Post did indeed conduct a poll this last week. Though one might say, sure what else would they be doing? Anyone got the fine details? The standout points are that FG is up 13% on its election result to 34%, SF is at 28%, FF at 18%. Inds have collapsed to 5% the GP is down too.

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1. Paddy Healy - March 29, 2020

Sunday Business Post RED C Poll March 29
AS Red C does not provide the raw figures (actual response to poll), it is impossible to evaluate the full significance of the poll.
The scores below are the outcome of processing the original poll findings. These processes are set out on Red C website.
In addition to the lift for Fine Gael, it is significant that SF is up 3% on its General Election poll and now 10% ahead of Fianna Fáil, though it must be remembered that this increase is within the margin of error.
In comparison with General Election score %
FG 34 +13 , SF 28 +3, FF 18 -4, IND 5 -7,
GN 5 -2, Lab 3 -1, S D 3 NC., Sol/PBP 2 -1, Aontú 2 NC
Irish Opinion Poll Analysis paddyhealywordpress

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WorldbyStorm - March 29, 2020

You’re a star Paddy, and I hope you’re well by the way. That’s great thanks a million.

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Paddy Healy - March 29, 2020

Thanks WBS. It is probable that some votes went to FG from independents, but it is also a fact that the overall votes for independents in a general election can be misleading. There are many local no-hopers and national head-bangers standing in general elections, some of whose votes return to parties on transfer.

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Dermot M O Connor - March 29, 2020

Takeaway I think is that a certain party looks like it’s royally FFucked. 😀

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2. Lamentreat - March 29, 2020

So far the virus is looking a bit like Varadkar’s Falklands

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3. Dermot M O Connor - March 30, 2020

http://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2020/03/polling-is-pointless.html

QUOTE:There are a few points that arise from this polling, quite apart from why pollsters are requiring call centres to carry this out for them when workers should be sat at home and stymieing the spread of Covid-19.

In times of national emergency, there is a tendency for people to rally around the government because, well, there is nothing else they can do. We see it in country after country, the support for incumbent leaders have gone up. Even Donald Trump, whose handling of the Coronavirus crisis has proven spectacularly incompetent and has doomed tens if not hundreds of thousands to otherwise avoidable deaths has enjoyed a bounce in approval ratings. Hence the criticisms, of which there are legion, that can be made about the government completely bounce off or do not find a mass audience.

As the state is the legitimised institutional expression of country and therefore representative of the “national community”, it condenses the hopes of beating this disease and finds projected onto it what you might call aspirational agency – what its populace would like to do, but can only effect through collective effort. In this case, what the state is apparently doing on their behalf.

This cannot persist, and will not persist. China and Italy have already seen outbreaks of violent unrest, and while it would be stupid to suppose the UK has this to look forward to with any sense of inevitability, these polling figures won’t last forever. For as long as the emergency is perceived, unless the government does anything else egregiously and obviously stupid most will continue to give them the benefit of the doubt. What happens when normality arrives, and how the Tories are going to try and turn the clock back, this will be the crucial time. Therefore it’s not worth paying any mind to polling until then, except as a curio for future historians.

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4. tomasoflatharta - March 30, 2020

The Cork East TD’s Personal Greed might be too embarrassing for some of colleagues – he names a government department – Seán Sherlock, Minister for Social Protection – that is the target :

Mr Sherlock said that social welfare payments may “need to be dramatically restructured and paid in a different way”, meaning that a “social protection minister with a mandate” may be needed.

Will there also be a job on the 2020 coalition government benches for the new Labour Leader, Alan Kelly or Aodhán Ó Ríordáin? We may be witnessing the death agony of a party founded in 1912 by the revolutionary trade union leaders James Connolly and James Larkin. https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2020/03/30/labour-should-enter-unity-government-to-deal-with-coronavirus-says-cork-east-td-sean-sherlock/

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5. makedoanmend - March 30, 2020

I wonder if SF’s recent rise might have concentrated a few minds in FFG. It certainly softened their rhetoric in regard to the social realm. But is it all short term PR fluff mixed into the pandemic dynamic?

We could surmise that FFG’s response, while largely guided by a sane pandemic policy informed by medical-scientific input, was nevertheless a bit more “sympathetic” than the capitalist norm as evidenced by Trump’s and Johnson’s initial responses. (The entire USA response across the duopoly is nothing less than criminal.)

Post-pandemic, I suspect FG will adopt a different rhetroical tone with regard to social aspects but their political DNA is too informed by market fundamentalism to change too much. Only continual electoral pressure by the left and SF might force FFG to adopt sensible social policies. Sure, a state sponsored home buidling program, done logically according to need, would serve as a stimulus post pandemic. Will they see the light? Will they slay some of their own fundamentalist economic nostrums in order to save their parties/careers – no, strke that, of course I mean the nation.

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WorldbyStorm - March 30, 2020

Completely agree – political pressure can influence even ‘centrist’ and right parties – however cosmetically – indeed given the track record of this state with no left wing govt it is precisely that pressure in various ways that led to less sub optimal outcomes over decades

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Joe - March 30, 2020

I wonder if SF’s recent rise might have concentrated a few minds in FFG. It certainly softened their rhetoric in regard to the social realm. But is it all short term PR fluff mixed into the pandemic dynamic?

Great question MdaM. Even today in some newspaper headlines, FF are tacking rhetorically left – implementing Sláintecare, scrapping the two-tier health system is one of their ‘conditions’ for entering government.
FF, and maybe to a lesser extent FG, have always been good at seeing which way the wind is blowing and tacking that way.

But don’t believe a word of it!
For example, this story that the private health sector has been nationalised for the duration of the current health crisis. I hope some Left TDs will get the details of this made public – you can be sure the private health barons will be pocketing a tidy sum from the public purse (they’re really good at that) from this arrangement.

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sonofstan - March 30, 2020

” FF are tacking rhetorically left – implementing Sláintecare, scrapping the two-tier health system is one of their ‘conditions’ for entering government.”

Odd that it was never a condition of being in government.

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Joe - March 30, 2020

Yep.

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