The Cedar Lounge Revolution

Hot for EU, but a little cooler… April 30, 2020

Speaking of matters relating to the EU. Not really surprising that pro-EU sentiment has dipped slightly from the fevered days of last year.

[A] survey, carried out by Red C and the European Movement Ireland, was based on a sample of over 1,000 adults aged over 18 between 20 and 25 March.

When Brexit and the Irish backstop dominated the news agenda, a staggering 93% of Irish people believed Ireland should remain in the EU.

With Brexit now replaced by the coronavirus pandemic, attitudes have shifted somewhat, although support for membership remains high, at 84%, with just 7% disagreeing and 9% unsure.

Of course that new crisis is all-pervasive in a way that even Brexit wasn’t. The stats are interesting on the crisis.

Opinion on how the EU has handled the coronavirus emergency is evenly split, with 47% believing the EU has handled it well, and 46% disagreeing.

Whatever about the EU, the Eurozone has been less adroit. It would be informative to see attitudes to that. But in fairness it hasn’t been at the uppermost of peoples minds in recent days.

Then again what of the following:

Irish people are decidedly cool about taking in more refugees, with 53% against and 35% in favour.

Only 43% of Irish voters would support more enlargement of the EU, with 37% against, while a majority – 41% – is opposed to Ireland paying more money into the EU budget, with only one in three in favour.

Or this:

However, some 49% of Irish voters believe the states should play a greater role in EU security and defence, compared to 31% who disagreed.

A very mixed bag of attitudes.

Stable door… April 30, 2020

From the Guardian.

Brussels and UK officials will clash over the increasingly fraught question of whether the European Union can open an office in Belfast.

At the inaugural meeting on Thursday of a special committee of officials charged with enforcing a de facto Irish Sea border, the European commission is expected to press the case to open “a technical office” in Belfast, three days after the government rejected an EU “mini-embassy” in the Northern Irish capital.

The British government, which says it is fully committed to the agreement, argues an EU office is not necessary and would sow division in Northern Irish politics.

The British government – eh? Division in NI politics? Hmmm.

A warning about the severity of the virus… April 30, 2020

From last night in the Guardian there’s this:

A third of patients admitted to hospital in the UK with Covid-19 are dying, according to a major study whose authors said the observed death rates put the illness on a par with Ebola.

The study tracked the outcomes of nearly 17,000 patients – around one-third of all those admitted to hospital in the UK – and found that 33% had died, 49% were discharged and 17% were still receiving treatment after two weeks.

And for those labouring under the illusion that this is somehow akin to more familiar viruses…

“Some people persist in believing that Covid-19 is no worse than a bad dose of flu. They are gravely mistaken,” said Calum Semple, professor in child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool, and chief investigator of the study.

“Despite the best supportive care that we can provide, the crude case fatality rate for people who are admitted to hospital with severe Covid-19 is 35% to 40% which is similar to that for people admitted to hospital with Ebola.”

And for all the talk of underlying conditions, one in particular that people don’t think of same seems to be key:

The most significant health risk factor was obesity, increasing risk of death by 37% – a greater amount than heart disease (31%), lung disease (19%) or kidney disease (25%).

As the media is filled with pieces urging a relaxation of shut-downs it is never more important to get a sense of just how serious this virus is.

On a personal note I know now of a little less than a dozen people who have had it and it has been a severe to extremely severe illness in almost all cases.

Hand Signals ….. April 29, 2020

Found this in a bunch of Far Left Material I have. Hand Signals for use in Meetings.

Easing a lockdown… April 29, 2020

Was struck reading about how New Zealand was ‘easing’ its lock-down, how in many, albeit not all aspects, the lock-down there is both more restrictive than the one in this state, and how the easing was, largely, though not precisely, moving towards the situation here. So, for example:

The Level 3 restrictions, which limit people to local travel and keep malls, pubs, hairdressers and other businesses closed, will last for at least another two weeks, Ms Ardern said.

It is slightly more open in some areas:

Level 3 sees retailers, restaurants and schools allowed to reopen on a smaller scale. Schools will reopen on Wednesday for children up to Year 10 who cannot study from home, or whose parents need to return to work. Workers are able to resume on-site work, provided they have a Covid-19 control plan in place, with appropriate health and safety and physical distancing measures.

But important to keep in mind that New Zealand’s situation is radically different to our own:

New Covid-19 infections ticked up by two on Tuesday to 1,124 cases, with a community transmission rate of just 0.4. This is the number of people each infected person can pass the virus to and compares to the average overseas transmission rate of 2.5.

And it has suffered just 19 deaths. Compare and contrast with our own situation.

Indeed the broader noise about easing of lockdowns, as in Spain, Italy and New Zealand is one where the situation is moving closer to our own position or was radically better in the first place.

Still, looking at the New Zealand situation there’s a lot to be said about certain aspects of the manner in which it was handled – clear lines on the various Levels of Public Alert so that transitioning from one to another was transparent, the use of ‘bubbles’ of acquaintances, strong trace and test regimes and so on. Of course unlike this state/island it does not have a large rather chaotic neighbour just on its doorstep (and it’s somewhat more distant neighbour Australia has also seemed to follow a fairly positive path).

It appears something along these lines is in the works. And part of this is to deal with unreasonable expectations of exiting the lockdown. Which perhaps is also being addressed here.

Assumptions… April 29, 2020

Is it? Is it really?

What you want to say – 29 April 2020 April 29, 2020

As always, following on Dr. X’s suggestion, it’s all yours, “announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose”, feel free.

Not your usual Spreadsheet April 28, 2020

Came across this on Twitter

I’ve downloaded the spreadsheet and uploaded it here.
Trotskyist Membership spreadsheet

Quite interesting to see the membership numbers from the various groups in the UK

Some Of My Collection ….. April 28, 2020

Since the restrictions, I have been doing some Facebook Live things on my “Irish Political Ephemera” page going through bits of my collection. I have done three on posters so far (More to come) and two on pin badges (Yet to put on youtube)
Anyway here’s the 3 I did so far on posters. Might be of interest.
Suggestions welcome for other areas to cover.

Philanthropy April 28, 2020

A provocative line of argument from Jason O’Toole on RT!