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Travel advisory… April 3, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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I was fascinated by this piece in the IT which engaged with those involved in travel agencies and so on about the prospects for a return to tourism and holidays. Some interviewed were more optimistic than others. For example:

“Being honest, I think it will be September and October before things start getting back to normal,” she suggests. “I’d like to think there is a possibility it could be July or August, but I don’t know. What I am more sure of is that when it does come back to normal I think people will start travelling again very quickly.”

Another person argued that:

…to get any sense of when things might start returning to normal we will “have to look beyond Ireland towards Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy and other markets”.
He points out that “people will not travel until they know it is safe. There are so many questions, not least about the nature of this particular pandemic and if it will have the capacity to return.”

And:

“Maybe if this thing goes away as fast as it came, things might get up and running sooner rather than later and we might be telling a different story in June but as of now… I don’t think anybody will really know anything until the end of April.”

Whereas:

The President of the Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA) Pat Dawson is not so optimistic. “I think planes will be ready to fly in July but the big problem then will be when the borders in other countries will open.”
He points out that Spain is among the biggest markets for Irish holiday makers with 2.4 million packages from Ireland to Spain sold each year. “The lingering question will be is it safe to travel there and elsewhere. Honestly I think it will be August or September and that is going to be with the wind behind us.”

I’d tend to the view it will be quite some time again before people feel safe in travelling out of the state. And even as I write that I think given no-one in the state can travel more than 2km without restriction even that seems optimistic. What are the feelings on this?

Comments»

1. alanmyler - April 3, 2020

Delusional to think international tourism will be up and running anytime in the next 18 months I would have thought, until such time that mass vaccination has been rolled out. Add to which the likely scale of the economic recession, not too many people are going to have money to spare on luxuries like holidays. I get it that people in the industry don’t want defeatist talk and all of that, but really it’s almost dangerous to be raising false expectations at times like this.

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WorldbyStorm - April 3, 2020

Yeah, I thought it was an odd one. Far far too early to be discussing the issue. I was listening to a podcast from the IT where they talked to one of the Irish medical people who came back from Australia and there was a question along the lines of when will this be over. The person interviewed very sensibly said they couldn’t possibly answer the question, it wasn’t for them to say.

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benmadigan - April 3, 2020

Like Alanmyler, I think the tourist and hospitality industries will be in a bad way for quite some time

There’s the issue of the pandemic developing at different times in different countries. If country X gets clear, it will not allow people from still-infected countries across its borders

And the possibility of new outbreaks over the autumn 2020/spring 2021

Even holidays “at home” will be up in the air unless people are fully satisfied they will be in no danger of contagion or of infecting others

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2. oliverbohs - April 3, 2020

Don’t like this kind of chat either. Because who knows when all restrictions will be fully lifted. (They’re still on lockdown in Wuhan.) People will start getting impatient a few months down the line. Big business will be negging away and FFFG will be lured by their sirens’ call. Making a second wave more likely. Ditto for the herd of sharks that oversee major sports tournaments.

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Dermot M O Connor - April 3, 2020

Madness if they try to restart too soon.

The AutomaticEarth is a handy go-to for the worst news of the day. Usually economic, but a focus on Cvid now obviously, but again looking at the economic impact. The deathrate on closed cases is 20% according to today’s post. Now sure that will change – caveat caveat caveat, but a hell of a lot higher than the 1 to 2% initially modeled. Docs and nurses dying in very high numbers – in their 30s some of them. No time for silly buggers or Jaws’ Mayor of Amityville stuff – that’s what got the world into this bloody mess in the first place.

https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2020/04/debt-rattle-april-3-2020/

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3. irishelectionliterature - April 4, 2020

Can’t see it getting back to normal for a year or two if at all. Business travel won’t recover.
A lot of people will be wary of going on a plane given the proximity of other passengers and the air recycling.
The inter connected nature of the world will make it difficult to travel unless the virus is wiped out everywhere.
Then there is money. An awful lot of people are at the pin of their collar at the moment and won’t have the disposable income for holidays.
Reckon we will be staying in Ireland this year if we get away at all.

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