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Polls May 31, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Two polls, one in the ROI, the other in the UK show fascinating divergences. The first from RedC for the SBP show support for Fine Gael holding steady at 35%. SF at 27%, again no change. Fianna Fáil on an abysmal, and ironic given who is likely to be the next Taoiseach, 15% (+1). The GP is at 6% (-1). The SDs are 4% (+2). Labour is on 3% (NC), with no bounce from a new leader. SOL-PBP is at 2%. Aontú at 1% and for some reason Renua is polled and polls at 0%. Independents are 7% which is -1. RTÉ frames this as follows ‘A new opinion poll suggests that Fine Gael has retained its support, despite the continuing Covid-19 pandemic’. I’m not so sure it’s a huge surprise. For all the myriad flaws in the response to the virus FG is blessed as was noted in comments BTL here by having the UK to the east and the US to the west. And at least it seems to be driven by the science in way others have not been. Moreover this doesn’t suggest a massive groundswell of antagonism to the current approach to the lock-down. FF was road-testing some lock-down sceptic rhetoric in the Dáil this week. One wonders whether they will consider that politically profitable from here on out. Perhaps not to judge from these figures.

In the UK, by contrast, there’s no good news for the Tory government. As reported in the Observer Opinium has the Tories just 4% ahead of the BLP, 43% to 39%. Moreover as this indicates the genuinely massive Tory lead as recently as April has collapsed. I’m no great fan of Starmer but without question matters have stabilised. As significantly as the Observer notes the self-inflicted damage from the Cummings affair continues apace.

Boris Johnson is under fresh pressure to sack Dominic Cummings as a new poll shows that more than two-thirds of voters – including more than half of Tories – want him thrown out of Downing Street for breaching lockdown rules.

And the ebbing of support for the Tories can be traced in large part to that affair:

In the past week alone, the Tory lead has fallen by eight points, the largest weekly drop Opinium has recorded since 2017.

And this has to have ramifications for the future:

Opinium conducted its survey on Thursday and Friday after Johnson said he believed it was time for the country to “move on” from the the controversy: 41% agreed that the country should now “move on”, but a large minority (37%) said it should not – including almost a fifth (18%) of 2019 Conservative voters. Two-thirds (65%) said they believed Johnson was wrong to be still supporting Cummings – including almost half (48%) of 2019 Conservative voters. Just over two in five (43%) UK adults said they had lost respect for the government over its backing of Cummings – of which 45% voted Conservative in 2019.

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1. sonofstan - May 31, 2020

The Opinium poll is really stark: I’d guess in most countries that have handled this crisis reasonably, a similar bounce for the government parties will have happened as in Ireland (caveat re whether a caretaker govt counts) – the fact that the complete opposite has happened here in Britain – really England, since I reckon Sturgeon and Drakeford have come out of this OK – should tell the tories something.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2020

Stunning turnaround

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Michael Carley - May 31, 2020

So we’re stuck with them for the full five years.

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2. Paddy Healy - May 31, 2020

May 30 RED C Poll highlights Lasting Damage to Fianna Fáil and Labour Party
Note poll among Poorer Half of Population shows 42% for Sinn Féin, 12% for Fianna Fáil and 3% for Labour Party and 24% for Fine Gael
RED C May 30 On-Line Poll
After Elimination of Don’t Knows and “Processing”
Margin of Error 3% ?
This outcome is almost identical to the previous poll
FG35 SF27 FF15 IND 7 Greens 5 Social Democrats 4 Lab 3 Sol-PBP 2 Aontú 1 Other 1
Poorer Half of Population Social Categories C2DE
FG 24 SF 42 FF 12 Ind 10 Green 2 Social Democrats 2 Lab 3 Sol-PBP 2 Aontú 2

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3. roddy - May 31, 2020

If SF are at 27 on Red c,I would consider it good news.Red c traditionally have SF lower than any other polling company.Incidentally a poster on twitter claimed to have been polled this week by Red c, and when he said SF,the caller said they had enough of his particular demographic and discontinued the questioning.

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4. Paddy Healy - May 31, 2020

Would anybody have believed, even 3 years ago,that Fine Gael would have twice the FF vote among the poorer half of the population and that Sinn Féin would have 14 times the Labour vote!!! 26-county electoral politics is changing dramatically.

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5. roddy - May 31, 2020

The next election will be a head to head between SF and FG.All others will be squeezed as people are faced with a stark choice.Expect FG’s numbers to fall a bit when Covid settles down.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2020

That’s true. Once things do settle down they’ll leach support.

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6. Jemmyhope - May 31, 2020

‘Expect FG’s numbers to fall a bit when Covid settles down.’ Agreed.
A large portion of the 15% increase for FG i would suggest is made up of voters switching from FF and Greens since February’s GE. The only place they will switch to again (if they do) is back to those parties. If Martin is Taoiseach you would expect some claw back for FF, initially at least. I’m not convinced the next election will be a straight head to head between SF and FG. The intervening Government, its make up and how it performs will decide much.I think it more likely the next election will be a head to head between a FG/FF coalition (as that will be the only way either can hang on to power) and a SF led left wing coalition.

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WorldbyStorm - May 31, 2020

That seems very likely and agree some support will spill back to ff particularly with mm as Taoiseach

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7. roddy - May 31, 2020

Agreed of course the choice will be a right leaning or left leaning coalition.

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8. irishelectionliterature - June 1, 2020

Dangerous times ahead for FF. Not sure if Martin being Taoiseach will give them a long term bounce.
It will be he that will have to communicate some of the cutbacks etc that are bound to come. He will be the figurehead for some very unpopular decisions.
FG have done better than I thought they would have coping with the pandemic and have mostly carried the people with them. They are currently resisting all the calls from the captain’s of industry to quicken the reopening. Which is to be admired.
I must confess that I was surprised at the various voices calling for an easing of the lockdown. Something that may not benefit them in the long run.
The Independents support possibly shows how ineffective some of them they can be. You look at places like Kerry which are economically devestated by this and there doesn’t seem to be a peep from the Healy-Raes (Incidentally I hear Michael is thinking of running for Europe the next time)

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WorldbyStorm - June 1, 2020

“”Dangerous times ahead for FF. Not sure if Martin being Taoiseach will give them a long term bounce.
It will be he that will have to communicate some of the cutbacks etc that are bound to come. He will be the figurehead for some very unpopular decisions.”

It did strike me that this is not the time to become Taoiseach. If I had been him I’d go for the second half of the term when things were in recovery (one hopes).

“I must confess that I was surprised at the various voices calling for an easing of the lockdown. Something that may not benefit them in the long run.”

Yeah, if there’s a second wave that’s not going to be a good look, throwing away all the efforts and sacrifices of the lockdown.

“The Independents support possibly shows how ineffective some of them they can be. You look at places like Kerry which are economically devestated by this and there doesn’t seem to be a peep from the Healy-Raes (Incidentally I hear Michael is thinking of running for Europe the next time)”

They’ve been very very quiet indeed. Hadn’t thought about that until now.

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irishelectionliterature - June 1, 2020

He has been quiet in part because of the Caherciveen situation where he was an investor in the hotel that became a Direct Provision Centre.
There are a good few Independent TD’s on the West Coast and other tourist dependent areas such as Wexford, Waterford and West Cork that have said little or nothing. The Tourist and associated industries are a massive part of the economy in these areas. Verona Murphy has said a few things but can’t recall much from the others.
They of course will be vocal later on in the year, but now is really the time for them to step up and show their worth.

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