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Supporting role June 5, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Anyone catch the latest proposal from the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to the Independents. Not quite as stellar as their most recent turn in government, to put it mildly. Rather than having seats at Cabinet they would have to make do with…

…deals similar to that given to former Kerry Independent Jackie Healy-Rae to support a coalition between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party.

And:

Such an arrangement would involve local deals for individual TDs as well as access to government ministers. The Taoiseach is understood to have said the Fine Gael-Independent minority government operated similar deals.

And:

The Independents were told they would be given a programme for government when it was agreed, and they were left with the impression that they would be supporting an administration from outside. It is understood that no ministerial posts or committee chairs were offered.

Quite a come-down from the status quo, no? But perhaps as good as they could expect given the numbers. The three parties could command 84 seats, and notable was the participation of ‘TDs Marian Harkin, Michael Fitzmaurice and Michael McNamara’, nominally members of the group of TDs that is more left-leaning. It takes no genius at all to see some Independent TDs would be open to the promise of such access. Perhaps enough to offer a coalition three or four more on top of that 84 seats.

Entertaining too to see the current polls having an impact, at least on the rhetoric about the government formation process:

One senior figure in Fianna Fáil warned that the country would face a “full-blown political crisis” if there was no agreement on a programme for government next week, while a senior Fine Gael source acknowledged there is a belief in the party that it could benefit from another general election.

Assuming an election could be held any time soon I suspect they could. But could an election be held any time soon?

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1. 6to5against - June 5, 2020

About another election, you’d have to winder how much would change.
Most of the recent movement in the polls has been towards FG and away from FF, so I can see how FG might see an opportunity beckoning. But there’s been no suggestion that the overall arithmetic would change all that much. Do FG think they would have the makings of a government without FF involvement? Even if things swing their way, surely they don’t think they could cobble together a majority of their own.

And if there was another election and FF came back even more damaged and bruised, would there be any prospect of them propping up FG? Surely they would have a leadership election. And I imagine they would be talking about going into opposition to rebuild, and trying to reposition themselves.

There’s no guarantee that common sense will prevail here, of course….

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WorldbyStorm - June 5, 2020

Agree completely, I can’t see how FF if they got the sort of pasting that 15-18% in the polls suggests would be willing to go into a government in such a subsidiary role. In a way they’d probably go on a similar path to the LP – into opposition as much as they thought they could.

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