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A Big Day Today June 26, 2020

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Will we have a new Government by the end of the day or not?
You’d assume Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will pass it. The Greens will it get the required two thirds?
I’ve heard all sorts of predictions for the Green vote and they have had an open campaign on the issue. Letter advocating a Yes Vote and for a No vote were sent out with each ballot. I’ve heard predictions for 72% being in favour of the deal to it being around 50/50. I’m told The Young Greens (15% of the membership) ran an exit poll and 35% voted Yes. There could be just a handful of votes in it in the end….. Then what? Will there be defections if it’s lost? Is that the end of Saoirse McHugh and some others? If it is, will there be a breakaway or some sort of Green Left Alliance formed? It’s an area RISE and PBP are very interested in.
A point made by a Fianna Fáiler to me was that they hoped the margin in favour would be quite large, better than 80-20. The larger the margin the easier it will be to heal the divisions that have arisen from this. The No side in FF are hoping for 30% and on a good day to break 40%. The initial onslaught by those in favour of the deal led to a lot of planned No voters not to go public. They are hoping that there are a lot of silent No votes.
For Fine Gael, will be interesting to see the level of opposition among Councillors and Members.
Any predictions?

Comments»

1. tafkaGW - June 26, 2020

If the eco-capitalist Greens shoot themselves and inhabitant of the RoI outside the richest 5% in the foot today, then a Green Left Alliance would be decent outcome. Bring that on, by all means.

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Colm B - June 26, 2020

I agree with tafkaGW. Of course, in the short term a right wing gov.will hurt workers, though this will be tempered by opposition in the streets and the gov parties fear of SF’s growth.

But in the long term the effect will be positive:

The historic civil war spilt is effectively over. It is clear to all that there’s no difference between FF and FG. This creates a clear left/right split in Irish politics and might also lead to the demise of FF.

If they enter Gov this will destroy the Greens which is good thing, they will be exposed as fake radicals. Though I have my doubts that it will happen,an added bonus might be a split leading to the creation of a left green formation, which could ally with the radical left.

Given the renewed imposition of austerity, carbon tax etc. the situation will also be ripe for popular resistance.

So, yes, bring it on!

Liked by 2 people

2. Fergal - June 26, 2020

You’d have to wonder at the lack of political nous in the Green Dáil team… really … unless they believe they’re going to save the planet… which brings us back to their lack of political know-how…

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EWI - June 26, 2020

There’s a report circulating of a super-junior minister being appointed for roads, to thwart the Greens’ transport agenda.

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tafkaGW - June 26, 2020

Well it’s classic liberalism from many Greens.

They refuse to conceive of the possibility that there are class interests being represented in their potential partners that would be quite happy to see climate catastrophe if it means that the profits of their clients can continue to accumulate for a few years.

Instead they imagine that diametrically opposed interests will somehow sit down and come to some sort of gentleman’s agreement in the increasingly short time we have available to ignore signs of collapse like a 38C temperature in Western Siberia.

Keep the carbon-pumping shit shut down.

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3. tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

We observe two turns in in the road
1. Greens Vote Yes to FFFGGG

2. Greens Vote No to FFFGGG

Fun starts : President Higgins will not play a game to benefit lame-duck Leo.

https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2020/06/23/president-higgins-will-not-allow-dail-to-disband-if-programme-for-government-fails-a-sfffsdlp-government-lurches-across-the-phoenix-park-horizon-in-dublin/

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4. pettyburgess - June 26, 2020

On the one hand, the media seems confident it’s in the bag. On the other hand, you have to remember that the Green HQ is run by quite possibly the silliest people in Irish politics and they are quite capable of briefing journalists that they have the win without actually knowing it.

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tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

Do these “silliest” people approve of Éamon Ryan pushing for lettuce growing in window boxes?

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5. NFB - June 26, 2020

If passed, you’d have to imagine that the left-Greens, the McHugh types (important to remember that she isn’t an elected rep though), will have to leave or else lose a lot of credibility. An left-environmental political entity would be no bad thing, and could make gains quickly enough if properly run.

I will be genuinely surprised if the Greens approve this deal with 2/3rds support. It’s literally less than a decade since they imploded as a result of being the minority party in government. The ink on the PFG wasn’t dry before senior figures in FG and FF were practically disowning some of the key environmental policies contained therein. There is no way that this FF/FG/G alliance would be on anything other than a downward spiral in terms of popularity, from the moment it took office. If they vote for it, they deserve everything that’s coming to them.

Reject it, have the leadership commit themselves to opposition, and work on more gains in the next vote. If the Greens could only be patient, they could be a key part of a left-wing coalition within a few years.

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6. tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

A capable RTÉ journalist has broken away from the FFFGGG cheerleaders and explained what can happen if Green Party members vote against coalition with FFFG “ And while the expectation is that a Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Greens coalition will be agreed by their memberships later today, four-and a-half months after the general election, we are either at the beginning of the end of the saga, or just the end of the beginning.

If there’s no white smoke today, here are six things that might happen next: ” https://www.rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2020/0626/1149858-government-formation-parties-reject/

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7. NFB - June 26, 2020

People on Twitter saying Young Green’s north and south have rejected by about 65-68%. Means there has to be four yes for every no vote of the rest to pass.

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tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

If this information is accurate, it is hard to see how the Green Party will approve a coalition with FFFG, with the required two-thirds majority. We will know soon enough.

Young Greens / Óige Ghlas
@younggreens
·
Jun 22
Thread/
After contacting and polling our members, we can confirm that the majority of our members are against approving the Programme for Government. The final result, from 185 participants, was as follows:
For – 34.05%
Against – 65.95%. https://twitter.com/younggreens?lang=en

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8. pettyburgess - June 26, 2020

Fianna Fáil look like they’ve passed it by a huge margin. Completely unsurprisingly really. For all the blustering, their membership are well aware that if there’s a new election Fine Gael will eat them alive,

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NFB - June 26, 2020

I’m sure that will be spun as big support for MM’s leadership too.

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9. tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

Irish Times :
Fiach Kelly reports: The Green Party is now expected to ratify the coalition deal with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Sources said almost completed tallied showed 70 per cent or more of votes in favour of the programme for government, passing the two thirds threshold.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/government-formation-ff-fg-accept-historic-coalition-as-greens-set-to-back-deal-1.4289401

Liked by 1 person

NFB - June 26, 2020

I can’t believe that much of the Green Party are so stupid and/or greedy. And naive. The young would be well advised to leap from the sinking ship. Left parties must now make a concerted effort to become the real “green” force in Irish politics.

Liked by 1 person

tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

Harry McGee’s cautious report : “ ‘m getting indications from people in the Greens that it might have squeezed through…
But that has NOT been confirmed and won’t be UNTIL it is officially annonced“

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10. NFB - June 26, 2020

Looks the Greens will pass it. Fianna Fail back in power…

Enormous pressure must be kept on the Greens, who now must be considered centre-right. Hopefully they split. Sinn Fein have to hammer the government all day every day. Solidarity and Soc Dems have to target the Green seats.

Patience needed. The next government might be left.

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2020

I’d think it will be and SF led.

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Fergal - June 26, 2020

I wonder if it’s time for the opposition to organise as one… sf,socdems, pbp, indos etc as a kind of shadow government… if left-right battle lines are now drawn, time to get into formation…
You have ff/fg/gp but you could have…

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11. tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

Greens Yes 1435 No 457 for political suicide 76% against political suicide 24%

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12. Colm B - June 26, 2020

All the talk of radical solutions to the climate crisis is the Greens equivalent to Labour’s ‘the 70s will be socialist’. Except in this case, in gov with two right-wing parties, the chances of even minor reforms are minimal.
They must be relentlessly attacked to ensure their electoral annihilation, to drive genuine activists out and hopefully lead to a split with a left green element leaving to ally with the radical left.
The factor people forget is the social base of the Greens: they have little connection to working class communities which explains the ease with which the commitments to social justice were abandoned and the size (presuming two-thirds plus majority) of the pro-coalition majority.

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tafkaGW - June 26, 2020

Good so. Nature of the Irish Green Party duly confirmed. It’s there to make up the numbers for whatever neolib austerian outfit needs them in return for vacuous promises from people who can only be trusted to maintain themselves in a sort of power.

Younger and left green activists need a home after this. They are not going to be attracted to Leninoid or nationalist outfits. They need an offer that is a genuine alliance where they will have a voice and influence.

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13. tomasoflatharta - June 26, 2020

Open letter to left Greens: What next?
— Read on http://www.letusrise.ie/featured-articles/open-letter-what-next

Greens on FFFGGG
Yes 1435 No 457
for political suicide 76%
against political suicide 24%
Saoirse McHugh Green Party Opponent of FFFGGG
Dear left activists in the Green Party,

Over the last week, Green Party members who opposed the Programme for Government waged an impressive fight against entering a right-wing coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Unfortunately, with the assistance of an immense campaign by the media, and enormous pressure from the pro-coalition TDs, the Yes side has won. Tomorrow, Green TDs will become Ministers and begin to implement a neoliberal Programme for Government.

We appreciate that as we are not members of the Green Party, we don’t have the detailed understanding of the internal dynamics that you have. However, the decisions you make in the coming days can have a significant impact on the development of the left that we need. We therefore offer some ideas here, which hopefully you will find helpful while you discuss your next steps https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2020/06/26/open-letter-to-left-greens-what-next/

Liked by 1 person

pettyburgess - June 26, 2020

Good stuff. I like that this isn’t a “we told you so, now join us” thing.

Liked by 1 person

14. roddy - June 26, 2020

The Northern greens were shown to be what they really are.They represent the most affluent areas of the North and I had to laugh at the idea that Northern votes would sink the deal.The fact that only 20% of their Northern membership even bothered to register to vote shows what you are dealing with.A bunch of toffs who call themselves Green because it sounds trendy and who know nothing of Ireland outside of the cricket fields of North Down or the leafy avenues of South Belfast.

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Colm B - June 26, 2020

What was the vote in the North, did those who voted vote for or agin?

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WorldbyStorm - June 26, 2020

That’s a question I’d like answered too.

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15. tafkaGW - June 26, 2020

Still the Greens will be entitled to *electric* ministerial cars. That’s progress.

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16. roddy - June 26, 2020

Colm,80% of them regard the South as another planet and that is the main point.

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Joe - June 27, 2020

Janey. I get stick sometimes for promoting the two nations theory. But Roddy, you’re going into orbit with this two planets idea.

Liked by 1 person

17. CL - June 26, 2020

Soon there’ll be wolves at the door.

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18. Jim Monaghan - June 27, 2020

An aside. The number of voters for the Greens and FF shows their real membership. In my opinion. The Greens roughly two thousand. Eleven thousand for FF, I wonder what is the real membership of other parties. With a lowish threshold, willingness to vote in something like the above.

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19. CL - June 27, 2020

“The left seeks social justice through redistributive social and economic policies, while the Right defends private property and capitalism. The nature of the conflict depends on existing social and political cleavages and on the level of economic development”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Left%E2%80%93right_political_spectrum#:~:text=The%20left%20seeks%20social%20justice,the%20level%20of%20economic%20development.

“Irish politics has completely realigned in the past decade. Instead of the civil war, the most important dividing line in politics is now between those who favour radical change in the way our country is organised – socially, economically, politically – and those who favour more moderate, incremental change which would preserve much of the existing status quo….
Some people will see this as just a divide between left and right. But by the usual benchmarks – increasing public investment, prioritising spending over tax cuts, advancing a socially liberal agenda – Fine Gael, with the support of Fianna Fail, has behaved in government in recent years like a social democratic party. So I think moderates versus radicals is a better description….
If you are economically comfortable, and feel you have a stake in society, you are far more likely to believe in the preservation of the status quo, and its gradual reform, than someone who lives in or with the threat of real deprivation, or homelessness, or penury.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/pat-leahy-new-battle-lines-of-irish-politics-have-been-drawn-1.4289491

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20. roddy - June 27, 2020

Joe ,the greens claim they want to “save the planet”.However the % of Northerners not wanting to vote shows that for them the “planet” doesnt extend beyond “the close”,”the avenue” or the gates of “SullivanUpper”, “Inst” or “Methody”.

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21. Colm B - June 27, 2020

No indication that any Green TDs will leave. Needless to say the pressure of being responsible for decisions that negatively effect workers or betray environmental principles will push some of them out later but the loss of credibility at that stage will make it unlikely that any dissenting TDs could lead a significant left split.
From a distance, it looks like only the youth section might form the basis for a genuine left split. Since I’m guessing many of them are activists in broader campaigns, they will feel the pressure more intensely. I hope they do split and join the radical left in some sort of green left alliance.
Anyone in or close to the young greens who might enlighten us?

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pettyburgess - June 27, 2020

My read as a non Green Party member is that there was never any prospect of any of the three TDs who opposed the PfG leaving over it. They are only very slightly to the left of the thoroughly neoliberal bulk of the parliamentary party and their opposition was more grounded in a tactical awareness that the party leadership were exchanging the party’s future electoral prospects for ministerial seats.

There will be an exit by some minority part of the 450 No votes. The question is whether it’s just individuals walking away or if some kind of organised split coheres. The left of the Greens had no real preexisting organisation and is mostly made up of young and quite inexperienced people. They were shafted by Catherine Martin, who briefly appeared to offer them leadership and then quickly used that as a bargaining chip to advance her own prospects. They are now being shafted by the three No TDs who are trying to disorganise and disarm them in the name of party unity. This can be demoralising but it can also be a learning experience. Those who stay have no political future, those who leave might bring valuable experience to the wider left.

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