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Independence poll July 6, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Thanks to roddy and ColmB for drawing attention to polling for independence for Scotland and that discussion has gone in intriguing directions.

The details of the poll are here.

Support for Scottish independence has increased to 54% – with a Panelbase poll finding an increasing number of Labour voters would now back independence.

The poll found that Labour voter support for independence has increased from 35% to 37%, with 13% of said voters unsure how they would vote in the event of a second independence referendum.

The new poll, carried out on behalf of Business for Scotland, comes after a Panelbase poll three weeks ago put support for independence at 52%.

But as ColmB notes this isn’t a flash in the pan… Since January of this year polls have shifted towards a majority for Yes. Or put it another way, since the 2019 UK General Election. Perhaps the Labour loss at that election will have wider ramifications than was first thought. Particularly if it in part propels sentiment in Scotland towards either an independence adjacent position, seeking even greater autonomy, or outright independence. The pandemic of course must have had an impact as well, with a sharp distinction between the polities on the island of Britain and sharply different in terms of popular confidence in respective administrations.

As ColmB notes:

It isn’t an outlier either, it’s part of a continued trend, though this is a big jump: almost the same as the 2014 referendum in reverse. If the polls are right and there’s a massive pro-indy majority (SNP+Greens) in next year’s Scottish Parliament elections the pressure for another referendum will be huge. Doesn’t mean the Tories will allow one but refusal will lead to crisis.

Comments»

1. tafkaGW - July 6, 2020

I’m currently persuaded that the Brexit outcomes at the end of the year will be either:

a) no deal (40% probability)
b) a minimal deal that’s very like no deal but will trumpeted by the Tories and their press as the ‘bigly greatest’ deal ever. (60%)

Either way that’s going to firm up the preference for independence in Scotland and the further semi-detachment of NI from the dUK to the point where a border poll starts to look inevitable.

Genuine question here: have the Tories already priced this in and will shrug off Scotland and NI, or are they spoiling for a long political fight, up possibly to the point of civil war, with regions that want to break away?

Or are they just clueless chancers who got lucky once with Brexit and who have far to high an opinion of themselves as political operators?

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - July 6, 2020

Clueless chancers mostly.

One thing you learn living in England is how peripheral the rest of us on these islands are to the English. Excusable in relation to us, I guess, but Scotland doesn’t really register either, and Wales is just considered weird and certainly not a real country (or language).

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WorldbyStorm - July 6, 2020

I always find that fascinating as a dynamic, but not unfamiliar. The English side of the family is a microcosm of that. A couple who are well acquainted with Ireland and Europe (one who was advocating UK joining the euro back in the 2000s), the rest, not on the radar. Scotland, Wales are sort of dim and distant even if they are from Birmingham (well the latter) just a hop and a skip away by car. Smaller peripheral countries/nations are always more likely to be conscious of the doings of their larger neighbours. On the other hand, I remember reading in a historical research journal a while back of personal accounts/letters etc from the 18th/19th century from Ireland where the ‘history’ would have one believe massive events were shaking the firmament and yet they registered only marginally if at all.

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sonofstan - July 6, 2020

As a pendant to that though, I’ve been struck at how aware certain ‘mainland’ Europeans have been of Ireland and of Britain’s culpability with regard to conditions here. Not just Marx and Engels, but Kant and Hegel, to pick two examples, both wrote about us: K. was interested in 1798 and Hegel thought conditions in Ireland refuted English claims to democracy and fairness.

Liked by 1 person

Bartholomew - July 6, 2020

O’Connell was a massive figure for liberals in Germany throughout the nineteenth century, and in France as well. On top of that, at a time when the papacy was viciously anti-democratic, he was used as an example by Catholic political parties of different stripes in both Germany and France of how Catholicism and democracy might be compatible. Tocqueville’s trip to Ireland in the 1830s is a good example (although he didn’t entirely approve of it).

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EWI - July 6, 2020

he was used as an example by Catholic political parties of different stripes in both Germany and France of how Catholicism and democracy might be compatible.

Or, alternatively, of how the Church and non-Catholic governments might come to a mutually-amicable arrangement.

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Bartholomew - July 6, 2020

Not entirely. O’Connell’s first successful political campaign was in the precise opposite direction, against proposals that the London government would have a right of veto in the selection of Catholic bishops in Ireland. These proposals were supported by the papacy as well as by London, as a mutually amicable arrangement.
What the European observers had in mind was his part in the creation of the first mass electoral party anywhere, enlisting the Catholic clergy within a democratic campaign, something that was inconceivable where they lived.

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tafkaGW - July 7, 2020

Yea – Hegel’s concern was unknown to me until recently. In a sense some of M&E’s concrete width of vision carried over from the younger Hegelians.

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benmadigan - July 6, 2020

Hardly surprising the Celtic nations hardly register with the English.
Over the centuries they were supposed to have been conquered and their language and culture annihilated as
“Englishness” was imposed as the standard way of thinking, speaking and being and the model to look up to.
The policy was successful with Unionists in Scotland, N Ireland and Wales,who spend their lives attempting to become 2nd class English since they could never actually be English.
They are “British”, just like members of the Windrush generation and immigrants from former colonies.
BAME is not EAME

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Colm B - July 6, 2020

I think the Tories are a mixed bag, but to just abandon Scotland would strike at the core of their ideology. It’s not that they give a fiddler’s about Scotland or NI but like that British Nationalism and imperial nostalgia are key parts of the package that ensures support in England. To “loose” Scotland or NI would be seen as fatal weakness.
However the somewhat sperate question is would the ruling class accept it? Neither country have much economic importance for the UK other than Scotlands oil and access to that would not be curtailed with independence. What would frighten elements of the ruling class would be the instability it would cause in England and the final loss of world status.
I don’t think a Tory gov will ever voluntarily allow another referendum, they’d be quite willing to do a Catalonia. That means that mass action is the key to independence, a reality that the SNP leadership are loath to accept.

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Colm B - July 6, 2020

Interesting article by Ben Wray of Common Space on how a campaign for the right to a referendum might succeed:

https://sourcenews.scot/5-ways-to-build-pressure-for-the-right-to-decide/

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tafkaGW - July 7, 2020

That’s interesting. Especially the proposal:

3) Connect the right to decide to a wider set of democratic demands. To broaden the depth and breadth of the independence movement, links should be made between democratic demands on Scotland’s constitutional future and demands for rights in all parts of our lives, whether it is housing rights, community-level democracy, an economic recovery which is led by and for people, etc. If the national self-determination movement is a democracy movement it should be for democracy in all aspects of our economy and society.

I’ve always thought that an Irish unity poll should also include constitutional changes that guarantee rights to basic universal services in housing, health etc. as well as democratisation and transparency at all levels.

That would allow buy-in from unionists at the non-identity level.

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tafkaGW - July 7, 2020

My suspicion as well is that they’d love to do a Madrid versus Catalonia. Ideal distraction after the post Brexit/Covid-mishandling chaos.

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2. roddy - July 6, 2020

No British imperialism or imperial nostalgia have nothing to answer for.If only people in the North could designate “other”,wear a poppy in November,a shamrock in March,toast royal births(royals belong to us all) and welcome “our troops” back from Iraq ,everything would be grand.

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sonofstan - July 6, 2020

Plenty of English people would do none of the above without ever feeling themselves less than British.
The royal thing especially: I know my circle of acquaintance isn’t entirely typical but I’ve honestly never met anyone who’s more than lukewarm about the Windsors. I suspect that if the royal family disappeared, it would be much like the final scene in the Truman Show: after Truman escapes, the audience in the bar, spellbound by the denouement, after a few seconds, switch over to the football.

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FergusD - July 6, 2020

I think you may be right. The royals are more or less a soap opera for. most, except perhaps Her Maj herself. Charlie boy is a figure of fun, when not ignored. When Her Maj dies there will be a massive fuss, herself and I will have to be out of the U.K. then. But after the relentless nostalgia etc, what then? King Charles III? Really?

Could be an existential crisis for British identity then. Especially if the Scots demand a referendum and Brexit fails to deliver a golden age.

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oliverbohs - July 6, 2020

I remember the annus horribilis in 1992 and the way the tabloids had the royals in their cross hairs. Including the premium phone line where u cd listen to Charles relate his sexual fantasies to Camilla via answer phone messages. You never got that with Queen Victoria. And there wasn’t any big conspiracy around it, it was just good copy, and didn’t really stop till 1997. Maybe the Dirty Digger just got a kick out of winding up the establishment

Liked by 1 person

Joe - July 7, 2020

“Including the premium phone line where u cd listen to Charles relate his sexual fantasies to Camilla via answer phone messages.”

Is that really true? That there was a premium phone line with that stuff on it? And who owned the phone line? One of the papers?

I was around in 1992 too but I wasn’t paying as much attention as I might have to all that British royal stuff.

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oliverbohs - July 7, 2020

Yeah it was actually a transcript from a phone conversation from ’89 when Chas n Di were still married. It was published in The People Jan ’93. And I’m pretty sure (though I offer no evidence)u cd ring up a phone line and listen to same, what’s the difference after all. All that being said, the royals have had bigger challenges throughout the centuries and here they still are. You can’t kill a bad thing sometimes. I’ve seen them being described as part of a kind of civic religion. And William might be a dull old stick but that isn’t a problem long term

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Joe - July 7, 2020

It’s mad but actually healthy that they would do the likes – that they don’t kowtow 100% to the ‘royals’ but will expose them even if it’s only for titillation.

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oliverbohs - July 7, 2020

I mean it is awful bullshit, the whole thing, but I suspect if you tried to seriously undermine the royals, how I’m not sure, and were perceived to have gone too far, their public mood wd turn on you quickly. They don’t directly wield power themselves which helps, if you don’t count that rumour from the mid 70s regarding a military takeover with Prince Philip as govt figurehead!

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tafkaGW - July 7, 2020

I suspect the enthusiasm for the Windsors will get even luke-warmier if Maxwell goes to trial.

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3. Roger Cole - July 7, 2020

Empires don’t last forever, and the British Imperial State is no exception. It spends £billions on retaining nuclear weapons in order to sustain the mirage that it is still a mighty Empire, it constantly goes to war against other countries like Iraq etc, but it cannot change the reality that it is not the the imperial state it used to be. Its core component parts like Scotland and Northern Ireland, its Empire Loyalists are no longer majorities. It is only a matter of time before Ireland and Scotland are no longer part of the British Imperial State. Shorn of their Imperial project, the English will be able to spend more on their NHS, housing etc rather than nuclear weapons. The people of England, Scotland, Ireland and hopefully Wales will have much better lives. Of course, it might take longer that I would hope for, but I do think it is inevitable.

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4. Joe - July 8, 2020

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