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That weekend poll August 3, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Another poll, this from B&A/ST. As roddy noted in comments:

SF30(+5) FG29(+8) FF20(-2) GRN6(-1) LAB3(-1) SD1(-2) PBP1(-1) IND9(-1).

That Ind/Other figure does not include that titan of Irish politics Renua at 1%.

So, what to make of it all? Note the increases above are from the GE, not from the last B&A/ST poll in March where SF was at 35%, FF at 19%, FG at 21%, GP 6%, LAB NC, SD NC, SPBP 3%, Aontu NC and Ind/Others 11%. Which to choose? Well, consider other polls from other sources as outlined here on wiki and SF seems to actually have consolidated its vote across the last four months or so. FF is clawing back some support now that it heads the government. FG is losing a bit of support now that it is not leading the governemnt. The situation for the GP is one perhaps of remarkable stability. Labour has seen no bounce from a new leadership. The SDs in this poll see a sharp decline but this isn’t reflected in other polls from other companies. S-PBP is in some trouble. Inds and others have seen a decline from the election but perhaps a consolidation of their vote at around 10%.

Can’t help but think almost all the larger parties and the parties of government will come away from this if not happy then not too unhappy given the absolute nightmare that the last month has represented for them (granted polling for this came just before the latest twists on that road in relation to the GP). So far they are retaining quite a lot of support. Fianna Fáil is perhaps clawing some support back. FG remains the most popular party on the right/centre. The Green Party are not facing an existential loss of support. SF is there or thereabouts.

It’s when we get to the smaller parties that things get a bit messier. One would have to wonder how any of them can quite dig themselves out of their current positions? And what it suggests for the future, particularly if SF retains support in or around 30%. That must have very significant implications for transfers and where direct transfers aren’t an issue (as with the LP, one imagines) then how the broader political context is shaped. Or, in short, how those smaller parties will be squeezed out.

And as noted in comments here, how do FF and FG arrange matters in relation to continuing to fend off SF not just during the lifetime of this government but afterwards? For example, assume that neither party goes into the next election with vastly dissimilar support to that they receive now. A larger FG and a considerably smaller FF may not want to endure coalition again. Confidence and supply again?

But that’s quite a way down the road yet.


1. Joe - August 4, 2020

I’d say MM prefers that poll to the ones that had his party around the 12% mark. 20% gives him and them a tiny sliver of hope.


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