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Interesting poll December 2, 2020

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Thought the RedC/SBP poll at the weekend was worth further comment.

As noted on RTÉ, this is the highest that SF has gone in RedC’s polls, ever. Quite an achievement in itself, but much more so if it can be sustained through to the next election. Richard Colwell of RedC had some thoughts on that noting that:

How secure are these gains? Well, support for the party is no longer dependent on a specific section of the population. Instead, it is now widespread, and across all demographic groups in the population.

But there are other aspects that are fascinating. Colwell argues that the fears of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael that a coalition of the two would lead to increased support for SF are coming true, and while FG is still at a solid 33%, it has dipped. Moreover FG is not guaranteed to remain ahead of SF in perpetuity.

Fine Gael’s position, clearly having shipped some damage, is problematic for them. But what caused that damage? Colwell points to the Woulfe controversy. Perhaps there’s more. Perhaps Varadkar’s curious playing both sides of the NEPHET issue has also alienated some.

The real curiosity though is that – of course – Fine Gael is not leading the Coalition. He writes:

Given that Fianna Fáil has not had any major negative issues to deal with directly in the recent past, and that Fine Gael is hardly having an easy time over the controversial appointment of Mr Justice Séamus Woulfe to the Supreme Court, it is hard to know how the party can regain a strong brand position among the electorate.

But he’s more food for thought. He notes that it is ‘a long time’ since two parties in this state were vying for 30% plus of the vote. And this is likely not simply to swamp FF but all others. He points to the GP shrinkage as evidence. But consider the broader trends, a much reduced LP, and indeed a much reduced social democratic cohort even if one includes the SDs with the LP.

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