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That weekend poll January 18, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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From the Mail on Sunday (Irish edition). The results being:

Poll: Ireland Thinks / Mail on Sunday SF: 29% (+1) FG: 28% (nc) FF: 15% (-2) SD: 5% (nc) LP: 5% (nc) AÚ: 4% (nc) S-PBP: 3% (+1) GP: 3% (-1) I/O: 7% (-2) January 17th, 2021 +/- November 29th, 2020

Thanks to roddy for the link. Amazing to see Fianna Fáil still mired sub-20. Fine Gael and Sinn Fein neck and neck with SF just a fraction ahead. The Labour Party and Social Democrats now at parity. And Aontú on 4%? That seems random. S-PBP at 3% along with the Green Party. A terrible result of the latter. And Independents and Others at 7%. 

But note how the bloc beyond the big parties – that is everyone bar Sinn Féin, and FG/FF (so handy to see them as a single unit) are at 27-28%. That’s a lot of voters. Telling that FG and FF have been unable to entice them back. 

As to the future? Well, an SF at almost 30% is going to sweep up a lot of votes at the next election, but… I’d imagine that some of the hardier small party/independents will hang on, even if in diminished numbers (and keep in mind that the current block outside of the larger parties in the Dáil is 51. A very large number in a Dáil of 160 TDs. Lose 20 odd TDs and they still would constitute a significant bloc. Though politically – well that’s a different matter as they seem to strain in all directions simultaneously.

Comments»

1. NFB - January 18, 2021

Are the government banking on some manner of post-vaccine bump late in the year/early next to claw back support?

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WorldbyStorm - January 18, 2021

They might be waiting.

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2. LMS - January 18, 2021

Kind of shocking to see Aontu on 4% to be honest

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WorldbyStorm - January 18, 2021

Agreed, find it difficult to understand, it’s not like their profile is any much higher. Possible sampling issue?

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irishelectionliterature - January 19, 2021

I wonder is it an element of the FF Pro Life Vote moving there.

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sonofstan - January 19, 2021

There is a segment of opinion in Ireland that is socially conservative, but also antipathic to the neo-liberalism of FFG. Ó Cuiv is probably one representative of it, and Dana would have been back in the day. If they get their act together, Aontú possibly could turn that into seats.
4% though: more than S/PbP with 5 seats or the Greens with 12? Seems unlikely.

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sonofstan - January 19, 2021

I can’t remember the exact context – was there a debate between the candidates? – but I remember being struck during the 1997 presidential election campaign that Dana was the only candidate who talked about poverty.

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6to5against - January 19, 2021

Looking at the IONA gang, its interesting how they vary too. David Quinn seems to push towards the right of every right wing group, under every imaginable definition. In many ways he seems to be more a product of the US Rep/tea-party style politics than anything closer to home. But Breda O’Brien often argues quite a reasonable line on economics whenever she wanders from what seems to be her core mission of defending the Church in all circumstances. I could see her backing an Aontu candidate.
They might piece together a few percentage points but in terms of widescale support, I just can’t see that growing beyond that here: If the MAGAs see the glory days as being the 40s + 50s – before they had to deal with diversity and all that – they are at least evoking a time of growing freedom and economic growth. An equivalent group here would be evoking the worst time in our modern history. a collapsing economy coupled with sexual and social repression.
Good luck to them with rebranding that!

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roddy - January 19, 2021

Their only elected councillor in the North,Ann McCluskey resigned her council seat a few weeks ago.Former SDLP man Emmett Doyle replaced her on Derry council.She was deputy leader and said she would remain a party member but couldnt stay a councillor due to her views on covid.She has since been leading a handful of followers on anti lockdown “marches” round Derry.When challenged on this Emmett Doyle claims she is no longer a party member. They gained a 2nd councillor when an SDLP (and SF hating ) member of mid ulster council defected to them shortly after the council elections. She (Denise Mullan) could also be described as “colourful” and has the potential to create headlines. Apart from SDLP types who find even that party’s “liberal” stance on some issues too much,their otherwise tiny membership consists of apolitical “churchy ” types.

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