Border poll(s)

Interesting to see Arlene Foster so exercised about the idea of a Border Poll after fresh polling from The Sunday Times on surveys about attitudes to the UK within the UK. Two thoughts strike on seeing her saying “it would be “absolutely reckless” to be distracted by the topic of a border poll at a time when it is about “coming together” to fight against a pandemic.” First up, how long does she think the pandemic will last if a possible border poll five years hence might interrupt the response to same? Secondly how does she take the rest of the polling data? Because that might prove cold comfort about the entirety of the Union and if that is the case then Northern Ireland might find itself in a most difficult position. 

There’s clear evidence that the Union far from being stronger than ever is fraying remarkably around the periphery. 

In Scotland, the poll found 49% backed independence compared to 44% against – a margin of 52% to 48% if the undecideds are excluded.

And Foster’s stance is a bit curious given there’s a majority of opinion in favour of it, even if there’s not quite a majority in favour of unity yet:

In Northern Ireland, 47% still want to remain in the UK, with 42% in favour of a United Ireland and a significant proportion – 11% – undecided. However, asked if they supported a referendum on a United Ireland within the next five years, 51% said yes compared to 44% who were against.

Of course one could take the line that all will come to those who wait – as was expressed last week by George Osborne when he essentially said that unity was a foregone conclusion after Brexit. I’m not immune to that argument but… there are countervailing forces who would likely do all they could to prevent that outcome. 

Meanwhile expectations are high about Scotland:

Across all four regions, more voters expected Scotland to be out of the UK within 10 years than thought it would still remain. In England, the margin was 49% to 19%, in Northern Ireland it was 60% to 28%, in Wales 49% to 23% and in Scotland itself 49% to 30%.

And politically? The SNP are running away with support – at 70% at the moment, with the Tories on 25% and the BLP on 19%. We’ve mentioned how on earth the latter can possibly square the independence project with their project. Still not clear that they can. But come what may this is quite some place we’re all in.