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Irish Election Projections Site January 29, 2021

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Interesting new site giving analysis, projections on seats and so on. Lot’s to agree and disagree on in the constituency analysis but worth looking at.

Site is here

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1. Paul Culloty - January 29, 2021

Very much welcome filling of the gap left since Adrian Kavanagh stopped doing poll projections – the creator admits himself on Twitter that the projections are mostly computational at this stage, so he very much appreciates local feedback.

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irishelectionliterature - January 29, 2021

Yep. Having looked at a lot of Dublin seems to have FF and the left losing a lot of seats.
Locally for me can’t see 2 FG seats in Dublin SW. Reckon Murphy will hold on as SF will be taking a lot more votes in the middle class areas.

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2021

Very interesting indeed. I like them, as broad brush strokes there’s a lot there, I wonder how robust they are at the constituency level. Certainly I’d tend to think some of the ‘others’ will hold on a bit better in real world conditions (for example, two SDs returned, but Shortall losing her seat? Not sure about that).

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2021

I think you’re right, he’s really coming into his own, is Murphy and RISE – but did we ever expect to see you write the following re SF and middle class areas:
“Reckon Murphy will hold on as SF will be taking a lot more votes in the middle class areas.”

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irishelectionliterature - January 29, 2021

Do you know what, Mary Lou has more in common with most people than Varadkar and Martin. She’s doing the pandemic very well, simple things like having school going children means she’s able to relate to a lot of people with families much better than the rest of them.

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WorldbyStorm - January 29, 2021

Yeah, that’s true. She’s more relaxed than either of them in her persona. I can well imagine that plays well.
Interesting, the overall numbers. SF tantalisingly close but unable to get into govt with Ind/Others (too few of them) and presumably FF wouldn’t play ball.

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roddy - January 29, 2021

Two thoughts – SF will do well but not 60+ seats.Secondly ,what about his description of Lowry in the Tipp constituency review?!!!!

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irishelectionliterature - January 30, 2021

Yes, seems very generous to SF and FG.

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Dr Nightdub - January 31, 2021

Two SF in Dublin SC is a nailed-on certainty, but to project three is a huge stretch. At that rate, SF would surely be looking at an overall majority nationally?

Though I can see the logic of saying that the current one FG-on-a-bike (GP) would become one FG-in-an-SUV.

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2. NFB - January 30, 2021

Two FG in Dublin West? The last two running mates for Varadkar were nobodies, and Jack Chambers has the Lenihan votes/organisation. It seems very premature to put that down as a write off seat for FF.

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3. 6to5against - January 30, 2021

on the topic of constituencies, I see Regina Doherty is now saying her constituency is Dublin Fingal. https://www.finegael.ie/our-people/senators/dublin/dublin-fingal/regina-doherty/

When did that happen? Its hard to see two FG seats in Fingal on recent trends – and the predictions here say the same. And I don’t think she has any sort of local base here. Seems odd to me, but presumably it’s been well thought out?

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irishelectionliterature - January 30, 2021

She’s originally from the area, her mother ran in the 1979 Local Elections in the Malahide LEA.

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6to5against - January 30, 2021

I didn’t know that. BUt its an interesting situation. Her own website still lists her ‘local’ history as being in Meath, and makes no mention of Malahide or anywhere else in the constituency. And it means a high-profile candidate will be running for a seat here alongside an incumbent, with only an outside chance of two seats.

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4. 6to5against - January 30, 2021

The implication of the national predictions here are that the small parties and independents will be squeezed out in the next election. Which may well be the case, but it would also be the way any mathematical model would play out in the absence of local effects: independents – and small parties – by their nature don’t have much national support but have a long history of winning seats.

This is no criticism of the site: it has to start somewhere. It will be really interesting to see it develop over the next few years. I think any model would need at least a few years – and at least one national election – to build up the sort of data needed to do this really well.

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5. WorldbyStorm - January 30, 2021

I think you’re absolutely right. The broad brushstrokes are correct, but at local level they will be impacted by local aspect. There’s no other way around it. I think of Maureen O’Sullivan’s situation in the 2010s where she thought she had lost and then discovered that she hadn’t. That said I wouldn’t be at all surprised if INds/Small Parties went down to 17-25 seats in total – that’s PBP/RISE/SP/SDs/GPs/LP and INDS.

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6. Paul Culloty - January 30, 2021

First Red C of 2021 out – both FG and SF lose ground to FF, while SDs draw level with the Greens to make that mini-battle intriguing:

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sonofstan - January 30, 2021

That adds up to 90%?
10% Inds/ undecided?

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Paul Culloty - January 30, 2021

Yes, Independents are 10%.

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irishelectionliterature - January 30, 2021

Labour at 3%……. and I think O’Riordan has been doing very well on the schools, Kelly doing OK….. I know it’s a long way probably until the next election but where can they even gain seats , never mind hold onto them.

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7. Jim Monaghan - January 31, 2021

Back to a two and a half party situation. SF and FG the big ones and FF the half one.

Of course, for RTE, Labour is still a big party, much bigger than SF.

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8. roddy - January 31, 2021

For those who like to portray SF supporters as anti vax,83% of their voters say they would take it.As their support is highest among the younger cohort who would be least effected by covid ,an 83% figure overall is excellent.

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