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Vaccine rollout April 6, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Useful piece in the SBP where they did an analysis of when the vaccine programme should see all adults receiving at least their first dose. The conclusion? August for all adults to receive their first dose.

According to projected deliveries and the newest priority model of different age groups, most adults over the age of 35 should be offered a first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine by June, it shows.

Vaccination of 25- to 34-year-olds is estimated to begin in June and continue into July when they will be vaccinated alongside the last age cohort. This youngest age cohort has been expanded from 24-year-olds down to as young as 16-year-olds as the Pfizer vaccine has been licensed for those aged 16 up.

 

Just on that last, is it intended those under 16 will eventually get the vaccine? One would have thought that was necessary to break links in transmission in those age groups too, no? Or am I getting that wrong?

Interesting too is the rationale behind doing away with the complex list of groups to be vaccinated. As Newstalk noted:

The changes will come into effect once over-65s, people with underlying conditions and residents of long-term care facilities are vaccinated.

People aged 64-55 will be vaccinated first under the new plan, with younger age groups vaccinated in descending order (64-55; 54-45;44-35;34-25;24-16 yo).

Anyhow, much of this between now and June.

The strong implication in the SBP article is that control and justification of who was being vaccinated was going askew. There’s a lot in that which will have to be addressed (see the other post on this today too). As the SBP also noted:

 

 

 

The single shot dose Johnson & Johnson trial data shows that immunity begins to build 15 days after vaccination, with significant protection one month after the dose. For Pfizer and Moderna it comes about six weeks later, which is two weeks after the second dose is given. The AstraZeneca vaccine begins to provide some immunity three weeks after the first dose, but the second dose is not given until three months later with full immunity not taking effect until a further 15 days after that.

This meaning that full immunity for the younger cohorts will not be seen until September. Small wonder the government is being so cautious this time around. 

But that said some of the more cautious medical voices appear content with that prospect – Professor Anthony Staines is quoted as arguing that ‘the majority should get their first dose on schedule and that’s what matters most’. 

Of course this again raises the question of what matters will look like three, six, twelve months later?

 

Comments»

1. alanmyler - April 6, 2021

Just on that last, is it intended those under 16 will eventually get the vaccine?

The in-house virologist / epidemiologist here was just telling me only yesterday that the clinical trials for under-18s are still on-going, so hence the holding back on that for the moment.

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WorldbyStorm - April 6, 2021

Ah, cheers, that makes sense.

Liked by 1 person

alanmyler - April 6, 2021

Not actually a virologist / epidemiologist of course, actually a maths teacher!

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - April 6, 2021

Close enough!

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2. alanmyler - April 6, 2021

Just to add that the roll-out timeline is very good news. There were 30k jabs on Good Friday so if vaccine supplies keep flowing we’ll be looking at almost a million jabs a month if that rate is kept up. There was some caution on Morning Ireland this morning however, with a (I think) a Trinity virologist just noting that the new strains from Brazil and I think I heard her say one from Brittany are causing problems with detection and vaccine efficacy, so we’re not likely to be fully back to normal this year or perhaps even next. But I’ll take the good news all the same, one step at a time.

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