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Unstable government? April 8, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Reading this on the Guardian just before the weekend – an overview of the Irish government’s travails, which was framed in the context of the authority of the government fraying, a question struck me. Is the government under any serious pressure at this point? Pat Leahy has been banging the drum along the lines of if the vaccination programme falters or worse, or if the society doesn’t open up on foot of that (or one earlier to some degree – a particular bugbear of his) then the government might fall.

But is that likely? The component parts – however much they may dislike the position they find themselves in – do not appear to have anything to gain from breaking the government at this point. Not with a large rival waiting outside the gate in the form of SF. Their own popularity, bar FG’s, is not high. But what alternative is there for them?

Interestingly the piece notes:

Ireland’s vaccination level is slightly above Europe’s average, and well above average for those aged over 80. The government hopes a dramatic increase in supply in April, May and June will permit significant loosening of restrictions.

“This summer our businesses and our public services will safely reopen,” said Martin. “We will finally be meeting and enjoying the company of friends and family once again. We will be able to travel within and enjoy our beautiful country again.”

That depends on vaccine supply and public adherence to restrictions, two factors beyond the government’s control.

So is that the position, that if late-Summer rolls around and things are in crisis, the government might fall?


1. NFB - April 8, 2021

I’d say as soon as this is “over”, factions internal to the government will be chomping at the bit for an election, to take advantage of any brief spike in popularity. Or maybe they’d prefer to hold out for as long as possible, but that is just playing into the oppositions hands.


WorldbyStorm - April 8, 2021

Yeah it all seems rickety as all hell now.


2. Eoin O'M - April 9, 2021

I think the stress internally is greater for FF than for FG in which case we might see it limping along until Leo Varadkar becomes taoiseach again.

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