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Election(s) results thread… May 7, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Results coming in steadily. The Labour loss in Hartlepool merely being the most clear cut in England. But Scotland and Wales have yet to speak and there’ll be no doubt a lot of information relating to how the BLP functions across the rest of England where elections are held. SoS calls it here:

This will get lost, and it’ll be written as a swing:
In 2017, the Tories got 14,319 votes in Hartlepool. In 2021, they got 15,529. In 2017, Labour got 21,969 votes. In 2021, they got 8589.
The Tories didn’t take votes, Labour just lost them.

This new shiny ‘electable’ British Labour Party isn’t exactly rolling forward smoothly into a bright new future. The one that some seemed so keen to discard appears to have been as effective – if not indeed considerably more so. 

But we’ll know more as the day and weekend progresses. Anything of interest please don’t hesitate to post it here.

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1. NFB - May 7, 2021

Bad, bad loss for Labour. Bojo laughing all the way to a bigger majority, with the opposition in such a state. Here’s hoping the SNP wipe the smile from his face.

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2. irishelectionliterature - May 7, 2021

Seeing a few massive swings from Labour to The Greens in some of the local results in England so far. They’re not just losing to the Tories

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3. sonofstan - May 7, 2021

Greens picking up unlikely seats, at least on the face of it: a couple on Tyneside, one in Stockport. Generation left students/ ex-students who’ve stayed around after uni? Or a genuine swing from ‘traditional’ Labour voters?

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4. Colm B - May 7, 2021

Just scrolling through local election results in England and its looking like total wipeout for Labour, mostly losing to Tories but also Greens as IEL and SOS have pointed out. It’s Pasok time and the careerist idiots that run Labour will only compound things by insisting on moving right! So much for wrapping yourself in the butcher’s apron.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

It’s ‘ironic’ that the sort of cultist behaviour the right accuse the left of actually characterises them more accurately. It is simply impossible for them to imagine that voters might be attracted by imaginative, progressive politics because, at bottom, these people actually think we’re stupid and therefore *waves flag*

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5. gypsybhoy69 - May 7, 2021

Just heard the shadow Housing Minister although acknowledging a bad result blame it on the cataclysm of the last election, things are improving under Sir Keir or something like that. 🙄

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gypsybhoy69 - May 7, 2021

And Mandy’s sound bite for the reason of the loss of his old seat “Covid and Corbyn”!

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EWI - May 7, 2021

Just heard the shadow Housing Minister although acknowledging a bad result blame it on the cataclysm of the last election, things are improving under Sir Keir or something like that.

All the lost voters were obviously Corbynites, and therefore the party is healing etc.

Liked by 1 person

Aonrud ⚘ - May 7, 2021

The idea that there’s a single voter out there that didn’t vote Labour this time because of Corbyn, but did when he was leader, is a pretty impressive mental contortion.

And the “16% swing” to the Tories narrative is bedding in, as SoS pointed out in the post above. This ‘swing’ thing UK political journalists are so fond of is a weird effect of the presumed 2-party majoritarian system – you just can’t shove everything under that lens.

(Accepting, of course, that even with literally only two candidates, dropping turnout could produce a similar false rise in Tory voting)

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WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2021

It’s absolutely enraging. I was never Corbyn’s biggest fan, always preferred McDonnell tbh, but without question he had two significant achievements – first to activate a new and energetic base, secondly to push the BLP all the way to (wait for it) a modernised 1970s social democracy. The supposed hard leftism was always a caricature. To hear the new crew attempting to trash Corbyn and McDonnell’s legacy is disgraceful.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

Thier legacy will bear fruit though: at least some of the base they activated will settle in for the long haul and both will be remembered long after Starmer is the answer to the tie-breaker in a pub quiz.

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sonofstan - May 9, 2021

” I was never Corbyn’s biggest fan”

Why in particular? Just as a matter of interest.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

“And the “16% swing” to the Tories narrative is bedding in, as SoS pointed out in the post above”

John Curtice reckons the tories took 36% of the vote yesterday. And yet the story will be that they won big.

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6. yourcousin - May 7, 2021

Honest question here. In 2019 the Brexit party had a large chunk of votes. Enough to put a reactionary candidate out well on top if that vote had gone Tory. How does that (if at all) complicate the narrative? Not trying to excuse new labor light, just looking for a better understanding.

Also, I was personally looking for a better showing from Northern Independence Party. Even if they are a busted flush/Twitter phenomenon, they had me at “whippet for a logo”. Support your local coursing dogs!

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

One view is that most of those votes came from Labour – the question is, whether they will ever return. Starmer et al seem to think they will if you wave enough flags, and those voters will forget Labour’s second referendum policy in 2019.

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7. Roger Cole - May 7, 2021

Starmer spend most of his time as leader of the Labour Party attacking Corbyn

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8. Colm B - May 7, 2021

Looks like turnout in Scotland is exceptionally high. Don’t know who benefits from that, guess we’ll know soon.

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gypsybhoy69 - May 7, 2021

Well let’s hope it’s not the referee Colm. What can you tell me about Scotia Future? I was looking up my sister constituency candidates and came across them. Never heard of them.

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Colm B - May 7, 2021

Sorry, never heard of them…sound a bit fascy?

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benmadigan - May 7, 2021

think they are conservative/right wing Independence supporters

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9. CL - May 7, 2021

” In December and January the Tories were down at 37 per cent in YouGov polls and even behind Labour. But voters are crediting the prime minister for the vaccine success and discounting earlier errors during the crisis. ”
https://www.ft.com/content/7cc5825b-5d24-4ed6-9f40-bb386099edc0

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10. sonofstan - May 7, 2021

Labour needs to be more selective in its voters:

For 10 years, the Labour Party has allowed – encouraged even – an abundance of malcontents, idealists & refuseniks to inhabit it. Membership has soared but its effect has been to weaken its core democratic purpose – to secure wider support and win power.

(from a guy who runs a chain of academies)

ONly a special kind of mind could see soaring membership as weakining democracy

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11. WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2021

Glasgow Southside…

SNP Sturgeon 19,735
LAB Sanwar 10,279
CON Thornton 1,790
LD Ford 504
FREE Dobson 204
LIB Jackson 102
IND Fransen 46

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12. Colm B - May 7, 2021

Oh surprise, surprise, the Nazi scum who “confronted” Sturgeon yesterday got shoved firmly back in her box – came last.
Not the slightest purchase for the far right or indeed the centre right in a constituency where they have being trying to make hay due to the high immigrant population in Govanhill.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

46 votes is margin of error stuff: as in people who forgot to bring their glasses and meant to vote LD 🙂

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Mick 2 - May 8, 2021

twitter.com/glove931/status/1390690996728516612

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13. Colm B - May 7, 2021

Holy cow batman! Labour in tight battle with Tories for first place for London Mayor? I know they’ll win in second round but this is absolutely catastrophic – the Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey was a total twat, constantly exposed for his reactionary views on just about everything but he still comes within a whisker of Khan. I never saw that coming.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

Where are you seeing that?

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Colm B - May 7, 2021

Uh oh, Saw it in a lefty discussion forum I’m in but message has now disappeared, fake news maybe? Hopefully it’s not true.

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sonofstan - May 7, 2021

OK, seeing the same thing now, but from tories…

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WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2021

Bloody hell. Behold Starmer’s new dawn. Fading.

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wesferry - May 7, 2021

Seeing reports in media saying tight race between Sadiq Khan and Tory Bailey.

If London falls to Tories on top of Hartlepool, how will Scots (and Welsh) left-of-centre voters feel about where to for Scots/Welsh next?

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Colm B - May 7, 2021

In Scotland that horse has already well and truly bolted – left of centre and leftier voters are overwhelmingly pro-independence. The day the way London voted had any impact in Scotland has long passed.

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14. EWI - May 7, 2021
WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2021

It’s odd isn’t it how that’s our first thought in respect to these sort of statements.

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benmadigan - May 7, 2021

maybe labour party members will “purge” Starmer?

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15. Colm B - May 7, 2021

Ok it’s early days yet, but I think the Scottish election is a case of standing still. Keeping in mind that it’s only the constituency seats today, the SNP are holding their own with maybe a slight decrease in %. The Tories seem static but Labour’s getting small % increase – maybe some Remainers coming back to them now Blairites back in charge. The key now will be the regional list seats – will the Greens make the breakthrough that was expected (I think so)? Will Labour get a few extra seats (perhaps)? Thankfully, I don’t think the Tweedledum and Tweedledee of the election, Salmond and Galloway, will get any seats.

So tomorrow evening, I think we will end up where we started: Clear pro-indy majority with SNP minority gov relying on larger contingent of Greens.

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Zorin001 - May 7, 2021

I know a couple of guys in Scotland who have been at different counts, they think an SNP majority is looking increasingly likely but it will be very tight.

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Colm B - May 7, 2021

That’s possible but I think tactical voting by unionists in the constituency seats which will stop the SNP making much gains (I think they’ve gained three constituency so far) and a slight increase for Labour via the list seats makes a minority gov more likely. Still it’s really all speculation until we see the list votes tomorrow.

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Zorin001 - May 7, 2021

True, I’m more interested to see if the London mayoral result it going to be as bad as Labour are beginning to fear. Don’t think Bailey has any real chance but I’ve heard Labour are worried a second round will be tighter than it should be

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Colm B - May 7, 2021

There’s definitely unionist tactical voting going on – huge swings from weaker to stronger unionist candidates have saved a number of key constituency seats from falling to SNP.

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16. Michael Carley - May 7, 2021

Sitting in Cardiff watching results programme: Labour getting 50+% majorities, even when there’s the odd swing to PC. Funny what happens when there’s even a mild dose of social democracy on offer.

Liked by 2 people

CL - May 7, 2021

Which probably means Plaid Cymru is not doing so well.

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Michael Carley - May 7, 2021

Holding their own. It seems to be voters go Labour or PC depending on the constituency and who’s best for keeping the Tories out.

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Michael Carley - May 7, 2021

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Michael Carley - May 7, 2021

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WorldbyStorm - May 7, 2021

Very interesting

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EWI - May 8, 2021

Meanwhile from Keiristan

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EWI - May 8, 2021

(I have to apologise. Something is going on with my cutting and pasting)

Liked by 1 person

Jim Monaghan - May 8, 2021

Labour in Wales is a bit nationalist and indeed open to independence, unlike Labour in Scotland which is explicitly unionist

Liked by 1 person

17. Zorin001 - May 7, 2021

The Tories must be wishing they ran a serious candidate for London rather than Shaun Bailey.

Liked by 1 person

18. Michael Carley - May 8, 2021

Looks like Labour will get an absolute majority in Wales (currently 30 of 60 seats with 8 undeclared).

Welsh Labour is by no means radical but within its powers it has implemented basic social democratic measures (free prescriptions, for example) and handled covid with unshowy competence.

Liked by 1 person

19. henacynflin - May 8, 2021

It really is time to rethink Labours’ strategy. If it wants the working class to vote for it it has to be relevant to them, or at least stop being hostile towards their interests. If the LP can’t do this others will form a populist party and alas, as we know, the right have more success in doing that than the left

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - May 8, 2021

“If it wants the working class to vote for it”

The easiest way for the Labout party to represent the working class would be to be working class: not that everyone should be a miner or a fitter, since that’s not really the working class anymore, but start organising among the young and precarious, connect with NHS workforce in all its variety, and start trying to understand what life is actually like for the great mass of people here. And instead of putting white men in suits in front of a flag to try and attract the people you secretly despise, look to the natural majority of the country who are nothing like that, but not necessarily much like each other either: but whose common experience of being workers rather than rentiers should bind them to a party that is definitely not relaxed about people being enormously wealthy on the backs of others.

Liked by 2 people

20. Jim Monaghan - May 8, 2021

“Trump is said to have claimed he could go out and shoot somebody on the street and still get elected. Johnson is rapidly achieving the same Teflon aura. If somebody had been in a coma for the last year and were told that the Prime Minister had…

callously and incompetently allowed one of the worst Covid death rates (150k plus) in the world

managed one of the worst economic recessions of the main developed countries

openly been shown to give government contracts worth billions to Tory friends and donors

made great effort, in the middle of a pandemic, to get his party or its donors to pay for his wallpaper and furnishings

generally been shown to have lied on numerous occasions

been alleged to have said that bodies should be allowed to be piled high in order to reopen the economy for his business friends

… and still won a by-election, they might have thought you had lost control of your senses.” https://www.anticapitalistresistance.org/post/disaster-in-hartlepool?fbclid=IwAR1-kf6pz8WIYc74KVSolrrbt9fi70LAXwZBgQ0-46so_vt7PHVDFXtz8K8

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21. Jim Monaghan - May 8, 2021

https://www.anticapitalistresistance.org/post/disaster-in-hartlepool?fbclid=IwAR1-kf6pz8WIYc74KVSolrrbt9fi70LAXwZBgQ0-46so_vt7PHVDFXtz8K8 “Trump is said to have claimed he could go out and shoot somebody on the street and still get elected. Johnson is rapidly achieving the same Teflon aura. If somebody had been in a coma for the last year and were told that the Prime Minister had…

callously and incompetently allowed one of the worst Covid death rates (150k plus) in the world

managed one of the worst economic recessions of the main developed countries

openly been shown to give government contracts worth billions to Tory friends and donors

made great effort, in the middle of a pandemic, to get his party or its donors to pay for his wallpaper and furnishings

generally been shown to have lied on numerous occasions

been alleged to have said that bodies should be allowed to be piled high in order to reopen the economy for his business friends

… and still won a by-election, they might have thought you had lost control of your senses.”

Liked by 2 people

22. 6to5against - May 8, 2021

Well here we are, twenty-something comments + replies in and not one of us had spotted that the real issue with the labour party was actually with their chairperson…

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/08/angela-rayner-sacked-as-labour-chair-after-hartlepool-byelection-loss

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WorldbyStorm - May 8, 2021

Effin’ hell. That’s absurd. And on it rolls.

Liked by 1 person

sonofstan - May 8, 2021

Starmer taking full responsibility.
Worth noting a few straws in the wind as labour break the blue wall in with wins in Peterboro’, Worthing, Canterbury and other unlikely bits of the SE. And Andy Burnham taking 2/3 of the votes in Greater Manchester.

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gypsybhoy69 - May 9, 2021

Taking full responsibility by sacking Angela Rayner!

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WorldbyStorm - May 9, 2021

Abysmal isn’t it?

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Colm B - May 9, 2021

Labour lost 254 council seats, there’s no way that’s anything but a disaster. The fall back of the vote in most of the North of England was catastrophic and the decline has even reached London.

Andy Burnham, who was relected Mayor of Manchester, is a Blairite who was instrumental in advancing privatisation in the NHS as a Minister. And he’s meant to be Labour’s great hope?

The Greens gained 70 seats in England which may be an indication of some voters moving to the left from Labour.
Labour kept their 30 seats in the Welsh parliament but Plaid Cyrmu also gained 2 seats to make 13. And last but not least, Mebyon Kernow, the leftish Cornish nationalist party won 5 seats on Cornwall County Council and got 5% of the vote, their best ever performance.

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23. Paul Culloty - May 8, 2021

SNP voters really missing a trick in terms of the list vote – many continued right on from the constituency ballot, but if more had switched to the Greens, the latter would have won multiples more than their eight seats, at no cost to Sturgeon:

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WorldbyStorm - May 8, 2021

They’ll have to iron that out in future.

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Colm B - May 9, 2021

Sure, it would have delivered more Green MSPs, and I suspect it’s the way many left-wing pro-indy voters voted. Indeed this is how I voted myself: constituency vote for SNP to indicate clear support for indy and because FTTP made it a straight choice between SNP and unionists, then voted Greens on regional list as most left-wing party on offer and they are also firmly in pro-indy camp.
The problem though with idea that SNP voters should vote for another party on the list, is that outside political nerds like ourselves, most people just plump for one party – that’s the party I support and that’s who I’m voting for. For good or bad most Scots stick with their choice on both ballots.

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sonofstan - May 9, 2021

Do you think the SNP will tell the Greens that ‘the environment must wait?’
They’d want to be careful not to become the Irish Labour party of an independent Scotland 🙂

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Colm B - May 9, 2021

I heard this morning that SNP is eyeing up “recovery pact” with Labour. Remember the SNP leadership is centrist though a majority of members and voters are left of centre. Sturgeon et al are really committed to independence but are ultra cautious on everything.

So they will work with the Greens in as much as they need support for indy and other initiatives but happy to work with anyone who will support them. The Greens would be foolish to go into gov with them as opposed to voting issue by issue.
BTW though I voted for them and they have a strong left within, I have no illusions about the Green leadership – social democratic at best. Scotland is crying out for a broad based radical socialist pro-indy party but for the mo, in terms of parliament, the Greens are the best there is.

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wesferry - May 9, 2021

I heard on the radio analysis that numbers of SNP voters went Green on the list after SNP in the constituency.

The #BothVotesSNP obviously has an effect and I guess SNP Head Office won’t be changing the party line and upsetting SNP list candidates by suggesting SNP supporters might vote for rival Greens.

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24. sonofstan - May 9, 2021

TracyBrabin looking set to take West Yorkshire mayoralty for Labour, meaning a by -election in Batley and Spen, which probably isn’t what Keir wants right now. Jo Cox’s former seat, and safe, you would think, but….
Strong showing by Green here, coming in well ahead of the Lib Dem.

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25. CL - May 9, 2021

” Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford on Sunday demanded more powers for the Cardiff parliament as he warned the UK risks break up unless Boris Johnson increases devolution….
“We need home rule for Wales, more powers, a position where devolution cannot be pulled back by the whim of a prime minister,” Drakeford told the Financial Times….
Support for independence in Wales currently stands at 28 per cent, according to the Financial Times’ poll tracker, about double compared to seven years ago, although it is far from the levels recorded in Scotland….
Richard Wyn Jones, professor of politics at Cardiff university, said Johnson’s Conservatives have become an English nationalist party, while Labour was adopting a similar stance in Wales.
“We have got three different dominant parties in the different nations of Britain,” he added. “They are all nationalist parties. That has huge implications for the future of the UK.” 
https://www.ft.com/content/ab9f11ce-519f-4f9a-8fbe-24e64c0c957e

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