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New poll May 17, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

This sort of fell by the wayside – curious given the finding and the current issues relating to media and SF. Thanks to roddy for noticing:

Mail on Sunday.SF30 FG25 FF15 SD7 LAB4 AON4 PBP3 GP3

Add in Others/Inds at 9%. That’s some poll, not just because Sinn Féin is ahead of Fine Gael – though look at recent polls at the link above and one will see the two parties are at essential parity, switching between one another for top position. The two parties between them command a good quarter to a third each of the electorate, and probably closer to a third than a quarter. 30 isn’t terrible for Fine Gael though it is a long way from an overall majority. But 30 is a great result for Sinn Féin. Though again a long way from an overall majority.

Indeed looking at this poll I’d have thought that the means of government formation remain as elusive as ever. Will others tending left gain sufficient numbers to allow SF to put together a government? And what of Fine Gael? Would Fianna Fáil after a bruising term leading the government actually see any great utility in supporting FG as the larger party.

But consider all the other elements. Others/Independents at or around 10%. Labour behind the Social Democrats. Aontu showing perhaps surprisingly strongly – and is there any chance at all of that being reflected in increased numbers at an election?

Fianna Fáil at a- for them in recent times, not absolutely appalling 15%. It’s quite something to live in a time when the party of a Taoiseach is in such reduced circumstances. Amazingly, the last time they were polled breaching 20% was in mid-December last year. An existential question arises here because while that 15% is fairly clearly locked in to FF (granted it has dipped to as low as 10% at times) what can FF do with it? Where can it possibly build up its support, now seemingly scattered – and with SF clearly commanding quite some portion of it.


1. NFB - May 17, 2021

When do we think FFFGG will be tempted to call a poll? They’ll have a window when the vaccination programme hits “herd” levels where opinions might bounce favourably. They’ll surely be looking at what happened in the UK recently and thinking it might be better to go for it before the end of the year.


Paul Culloty - May 17, 2021

Appears the DBS writ will be served for July – interesting in terms of how Covid impacts the practicalities of voting, and/or at what point vaccination levels facilitate a normal poll.


WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2021

Yeah, I guess a lot depends on when a full poll can be held. But if they were going to pull the whole thing down before Christmas this year would be the time to do it. That said maybe they’ll just hold on tight and do the three more years or so.


banjoagbeanjoe - May 17, 2021

My bet is they’ll hang on for the three years. Wouldn’t be a good look for them to run to the polls now or when herd immunity is achieved. And even if they fall out (FG and FF) at some stage over the next three years, they’ll know not to go to the people because they’d be punished. They’re gonna get whipped by SF anyway so they’ll hang on for as long as they can in the hope that the tide will turn or something will crop up.

Liked by 2 people

WorldbyStorm - May 17, 2021

That makes sense bbj. It’s really as if there are no great options so the less not great option of staying in power is a better option than all others.


Bagatelle's Unbidden Tunnages - May 17, 2021

There was a time when FF would have been shocked and dismayed at Varadkar’s leak and just happen to stumble across the damning proof just as good will from vaccination peaks. Forcing them to reluctantly go to the country.

Instead, as bjbj rightly points out, FF/FG/GP will cling to each other as long as possible. Watching SF rise inexorably in the polls. Looking back in regret in not pulling a stunt this year.

Liked by 1 person

2. Dr Nightdub - May 17, 2021

There’s an element here where SF’s ability to reach a left-coalition-leading critical mass will only be achieved by devouring its potential PBP/SD coalition partners. For example, in DSC I’d say SF are nailed-on to get a second seat next time, but it means one of Joan Collins or Bríd Smith is toast, so there’s no net gain.
I’m guessing the same is true in other constituencies.


3. roddy - May 17, 2021

If housing gains traction,SF will be able to increase seats massively and still bring in SD and PBP on their coat tails.With 41 % currently
regarding them as the best bet on housing, an O Broin led campaign on housing could reap massive dividends post covid.


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