jump to navigation

Latest Poll June 12, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
trackback

Sunday Times/B&A poll out this evening for tomorrow’s edition of the ST.

Sinn Fein 34 (+4)

Fine Gael 24 (-4)

Fianna Fail 20 (- 2)

Independent/others 9 (+1)

Greens 4 (-1)

Social Democrats 4(+2)

Labour 3 (-1)

Solidarity/PBP 1 (NC)

Aontú 1 (+1)

Very brief first impressions. The polling dates were 27th May to 8th of June, so the latest controversy over polling wouldn’t presumably have registered (though given so many were encompassed by it one might suspect it would damage all pretty much equally). That’s quite some lead for SF though the figures seem a bit askew SBP and other polls in terms of FF polling higher and FG polling lower. IndOthers holding strong.

Comments»

1. roddy - June 12, 2021

I was out door to door doing that poll.Wore a cap pulled down over my eyes and dark glasses while sporting a R.I.P. identity badge (Roddy independent polling)

Liked by 7 people

WorldbyStorm - June 12, 2021

Hahah, brilliant!

Like

roddy - June 13, 2021

If anybody wants to see my polling attire,google “Joe Cahill images”.A post internment Joe with cap and black rimmed glasses.Maybe some of you computer whizz kids could post the relevant image!

Liked by 1 person

2. Tomboktu - June 12, 2021

Well, Leo or the Simons can’t say it’s within the margin of error, so do they day it’s an error or an outlier?

Will FG TDs decide that it was a valid question to ask “what has Leo done for Fine Gael?”

Is a drop of 2 points enough for Jim O’Callaghan to press the button?

Labour below the SDs. Labour below the Greens. Ivana won”t like that.

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - June 12, 2021

It’s a tricky poll, with a by-election coming up.

Like

3. Paul Culloty - June 12, 2021

SDs seem to be back in their usual polling territory here, when B&A usually has them alongside Sol/PBP. Presumably the SF bump is due to reorientation towards housing, as Covid concerns gradually recede.

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 12, 2021

That makes sense Paul re the SF bump. SDs are notably robust in polling.

Like

4. Paul Culloty - June 12, 2021

Meanwhile, im Deutschland, it appears the Green bubble has burst, and Laschet will be Chancellor for the CDU:

Liked by 1 person

gregtimo - June 13, 2021

Sadly the recent state election in Saxony-Anhalt (old east) was a debacle/disaster for the entire Left with even the Greens getting a mediocre result . A tragedy for Die Linke, their Berlin paper Neus Deutschland was reduced to silence despite usually being quite good at covering internal problems (likewise with the Rosa-Lux foundation which in the past has done serious analysis of these debacles) . The state was not so long ago a stonghold for the Left of Centre overall with Linke on over 25% now reduced to 11% . Shades of UK Labour’s Northern debacle but worse . And the Greens long seen as centrists , Germany is in a sorry place, when the best that can be hoped for is that the AFD doesnt advance or that the Greens lead some sort of centre-left governement (that will take quite a revival from Linke for one thing )
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-cdu-gets-boost-with-surprise-victory/a-57795626

Liked by 2 people

5. James McBarron - June 13, 2021

Re Dublin Bay South. My reading would be the housing crisis hasn’t been just a problem for the working class for quite a while. The children of many well off natural Fine Gael voters are in shitty house shares paying extortionate rents and are stuck in the same limbo as many others. I suspect that a significant portion of the natural voters for our big centre right parties will use this by election to send a warning signal to their natural parties to sort the crisis out. That means a hold your nose vote for Sinn Fein or one of the lesser evils, or perhaps abstention either way I think there is a strong chance Lynn Boylan will be a TD shortly all be it on borrowed votes.

The question then will be whether the current government is too ideologically strait jacketed and/or too much aligned with those profitting from the current crisis to do the necessary. I suspect the balance is still in favour of the status quo, and time is against them anyways, which means that when the general election comes around we should be on the cusp of a serious realignment in Irish politics.

Liked by 2 people

oliverbohs - June 13, 2021

Cd envisage govt boostering of rent-to-buy schemes or similar wheezes that amount to deckchair arranging

Liked by 1 person

6. gregtimo - June 13, 2021

Though good to see the Shinners slapping the FG-ers back in their place, sad for PBP yet again . Not even Paul Murphy’s fine articulate performances and Gramscian slant can lift them out of the doldrums . Most people dont watch Dail speechs or follow involved arguments or go to socially distanced protests (a personal relief to break out of shell go to the Palestine march the other Saturday). I hope PBP can learn from the failure of Trotskyism in France, Bolivia and elsewhere where it was once a force and come up with a populist Left Democratic socialist Left formulation that can aspire to being a mass party . As I keep harping on about, Crime/policing policy cant be left to the mythical revolution that capitalism long ago co-opted anyway . Get some policies on Community Policing and getting better oversight on the Policing beast for Chris-sake !

Liked by 1 person

wesferry - June 16, 2021

I hope PBP can learn from the failure of Trotskyism in France, Bolivia and elsewhere where it was once a force and come up with a populist Left Democratic socialist Left formulation that can aspire to being a mass party.

But that’s at the core of the Trotskyist formations’ problems, isn’t it?

They spend so much time splitting off of each other and splintering their whole that they cannot build a credible presence across the state.

How many voters would identify (let alone identify with) any of the PBP or other leaders?

Like

Colm Breathnach - June 16, 2021

Actually modern Stalinism shows the same tendency: note the recent splits which have resulted in 5 small Stalinist groups existing in Ireland; I suspect that PBP alone has more members than all these groups put together.

The tendency to split and form small sects is at least partially the result of isolation and marginalistion, regardless of ideology. Note too the very small ideological differences of these stalinist groups but the classic tendency of denouncing their nearest opponents in exaggerated terms. In Ireland, at least stalinists are the new Trots!

In fact as Trotskyist or post-trotskyist groups make political and electoral breakthroughs they tend to undergo the opposite process of consolidation: note the broad left parties in Portugal, Denmark etc which arose from a combination of forces on the left.

Actually in comparison with any other force on the radical left, Irish (post)Trotskyists have built a credible presence across the state, far more so than stalinists or indeed anarchists.

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2021

I’d think Richard Boyd Barrett would have a near national profile. Possibly Brid Smith. Gino Kenny less so, but on certain issues he’d be well know. Paul Murphy would also I suspect have a near national profile. That’s not terrible, and I’d certainly not in any sense be trying to diss either the CPI or WP by saying at this time the reality is none of their members would have anything close to that sort of a profile. I’ve kind of come to the conclusion that the problem isn’t Trotskyism or orthodox Communism or whatever so much as the further left in and of itself – in the sense that as Colm says isolation and marginalisation has led to splits and smaller groups. What’s notable is that in the case of the WP in the 1980s and PBP this last ten years or so there’s been a greater stability because of hitting a kind of critical mass in terms of representatives and some would say a degree of flexibility that smaller groups don’t necessarily display.

Like

7. gregtimo - June 13, 2021

The Desultory pieces on Die Linke will tell you why there is such a problem. I’m not sure which side is worse the old Ego matches of Lafontaine/Wagenknecnt (no prizes for coming up with a similar pair here) or the entrenched more PC wing of the party who lost touch with the old base . They need a shake up but I think Lafontaine/Wagenknecnt lost the plot also. Sad to see
https://www.nd-aktuell.de/

Like

8. gregtimo - June 13, 2021

My bad .. Rosa Lux (DIe Linke’s research outfit) did an analysis after all
https://www.rosalux.de/news/id/44423/die-landtagswahl-in-sachsen-anhalt-am-6-juni-2021?cHash=102984c937c569d70665907016721f96
Via the Harder Left Junge Welt who have had some association with Linke though are independent . A surreal report ending with the Linke leader in the state in seeming denial about the worst ever results for her party
https://www.jungewelt.de/artikel/403924.wahlnachlese-linke-verjubelt-sed-erbe.html
It’s good there are some clear heads who can analysis the bad news still. I hope for better times for them soon

Liked by 1 person

9. roddy - June 13, 2021

Paddy Power – Geoghan 4/6 Bacik 11/4 Boylan 11/4.Despite media talking up Bacik ,Lynn is catching up fast.

Like

WorldbyStorm - June 13, 2021

As you know the general consensus here is that Boylan coming a close second would be a huge victory for SF, but if she got the seat… wow.

Like

10. roddy - June 13, 2021

Anything in the region of 25% for SF in this FG stronghold would be massive.Poll 25% here and you’re looking at 35% nationally at least.Making FF and Lab irrelevant would be the optimum result here even if the blue shirts hang on.

Like

11. Paul Culloty - June 16, 2021

Ipsos MRBI to be published tonight (presumably 9 p.m. as usual):

Liked by 1 person

Fergal - June 16, 2021

Always wondered how, as house prices continue to rise and rents too, tenable this is even for those who are benefiting from this craziness… a nice middle-class home in Ternenure might go for 700,000 but that won’t help your four children pay the rent… or try to even buy a similar type of house…

Liked by 2 people

WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2021

Thanks Paul, that should be interesting.

Like


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: