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This evening’s IT/IpsosMRBI Poll June 16, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Well, those thinking the poll at the weekend was a blip might care to examine the latest IT/IpsosMRBI poll this evening.

SF 31% +3

FG 27% -3

FF 20% +6

IND/OTHER 13% -6

GP 6% NC

LAB 3% NC

S-PBP 2% +1

SD 2% -1

AÚ 1% NC

I/O 8% -5

Comments»

1. 6to5against - June 16, 2021

If there’s to be any realistic chance of a non FFFG government after the next election, what sort of total percentage is needed by SF plus various others to be able to put together a Dail majority? I think low to mid 40s has been enough in the past – but does that still apply if were looking at a plethora of small parties?

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WorldbyStorm - June 16, 2021

I was wondering something along the same lines – are there seat projections being done by anyone?

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6to5against - June 17, 2021

Looking at that another way, FF and FG scored a mite under 50% at last election, and couldn’t manage a majority between them. Maybe the seat bonus associated with being a larger party doesn’t apply any more, when there are no very large parties?
But if you take a combination of SF/GP/PBP/SD, they only reach 41%. Even with a few independents, its hard to see that creating a majority.
So does that leave us with SF+FF (+others)?
But I presume that that’s exactly how FG want us to be thinking…

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2. tomasoflatharta - June 16, 2021

These are interesting Statewide opinion poll numbers in the 26-County bit of Ireland.

Will they be consistent with the result of the Dublin Bay South By-Election on July 8?

“The Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times shows Fianna Fáil’s support has jumped six points from 14% to 20% , while support for Fine Gael has slipped back three points from 30% to 27%.

Sinn Féin is now the most popular party in the country on 31% rising three points from 28% since the last poll conducted in February.

Support for the Green Party remains static at 6% while Labour remains stuck on 3%, unchanged from the last poll.” https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/politics/arid-40315625.html

Dublin Bay South is a strong Fine Gael constituency – if Varadkar manages to lose, that will a stunning achievement. We can be reasonably certain the Green Party will lose a lot of support compared with its excellent result in the February 2020 General Election, when party leader Éamon Ryan topped the poll with 22 per cent of the first preference vote. http://irelandelection.com/election.php?elecid=238&electype=1&constitid=12

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roddy - June 16, 2021

Paddy Power – Geoghan 11/10 Boylan 5/4 Bacik 10/3

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benmadigan - June 17, 2021

“Fianna Fáil’s support has jumped six points from 14% to 20% ”

Might be a sort of “thank you” for how the pandemic was managed.

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banjoagbeanjoe - June 17, 2021

Anecdotally. Sixty plus year old friend of mine is hopping mad with Leo. Cos he said if you refuse your vaccine you’ll go to the back of the queue. She took the Astra Zeneca like a good citizen. And like many others she’s still waiting for the second dose. Now anyone who chose not to take the vaccine can book into their local chemist and get the one-shot J&J vaccine and be done and dusted. And under sixties are getting the second doses of Pfizer etc ahead of us sixty plussers.

So, long story short, is Leo beginning to feel the heat from him coming out front all the time and upstaging Micheál with his public statements? Are people seeing through that and pissed off about it, some going to SF, more to FF?

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Jim Monaghan - June 17, 2021

My wife is in the same position. And, alas, knowing Ireland, those in the know would figure this.

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WorldbyStorm - June 17, 2021

I can well believe that. I know a lot of people in that position. It’s a weird discrepancy. If you check out HSE Live’s Twitter feed there’s increasing annoyance about it.

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benmadigan - June 22, 2021

double doses of AZ and PFZ are reported to provide 90%+ protection against infection. AFAIK the single dose J&J only gives 60%+ protection. So maybe she’ll be better off healthwise in the long run

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