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Dublin Bay South June 20, 2021

Posted by irishelectionliterature in Uncategorized.
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Went for a walk down to Terenure to see the election posters in the flesh. I know posters aren’t everyone’s cup of tea but I love them. As an aside fair play to all the candidates for not erecting public meeting posters prior to the by-election being called.

On Social Media there’s seemingly armies of canvassers out and needless to say that they are all getting a great response on the doors. Been told by people in a few parties that they aren’t canvassing door to door in the traditional sense as people are still nervous of human contact on the doorsteps. They may do it in the final few weeks of the campaign.

What I’m also hearing is a total lack of interest in the by-election from the public. Of course the likes of myself are interested but on a wider level it’s feared that the turnout could be particularly low.

Now there’s been no polls to date in the constituency and with the recent fuss over party polling I doubt we’ll get any “…sources have said that in private polling that candidate x is doing well etc “.

Turnout is going to be important and to me Sinn Féin will probably be best in getting their vote out. That said will the prospect of SF winning get the Fine Gael vote out?

At the minute I would see James Geoghegan of Fine Gael just about winning with Lynn Boylan finishing second. Ivana Bacik will probably be in third with FF, SDs and The Greens the next three. Each of these three parties will of course be looking to win but will have privatley set a target of what can be deemed a success. 4th and around 10% of the vote is probably their target. In FF especially that target or failure to reach it could cause internal issues.

PBP will want to finish 7th but I have a feeling Aontú could do ok here. Then we’ll have Mannix Flynn and Peter Dooley then. The battle on the far right sees Justin Barrett of The National Party, A Renua candidate and Dolores Cahill all running.

It will be interesting to see if the far rights anti lockdown rhetoric will produce many votes. It’s also an experiment for them, what messages work, what don’t etc.

So another few weeks and we’ll know the result. I wonder how the count will be managed, will there be tallies and so on?

Comments»

1. pettyburgess - June 20, 2021

It’s objectively about as tough a constituency for PBP as exists in urban Ireland. Most of it is monied, the age profile skews older, and SF are very well established in the working class enclaves. So it will be interesting to see to what degree an energetic, articulate, candidate with big teams of volunteers and good online videos can swim against the stream.

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2. Colm Breathnach - June 20, 2021

I hope Boylan wins and that PBP do well but I have a niggling feeling that at some point soon the far right are going to make a breakthrough based on the spread of racism and anti-lockdown/vivid conspiracy shite.
I don’t mean winning a Dail seat or a huge jump but just a move into the 2nd tier – with SDs, radical left etc. Hopefully not, but based on what happened in other European countries it’s only a matter of time.

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irishelectionliterature - June 20, 2021

I think Boylan has a massive chance of winning. A poor enough FG candidate, the date of the by-election will be a week or so after the primary schools close, so there will be a bit of an exodus down the Country and voters unlikely to return home to vote in this.
https://the-beacon.ie/2021/06/19/dublin-bay-south-by-election-has-become-a-testing-ground-for-far-right-rhetoric/
Piece on the Far Right and the Dublin Bay South by-election.

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pettyburgess - June 20, 2021

It will be interesting to see how the scum do. They have benefitted from the pandemic, which has created a paranoid and alienated conspiratorial fringe that they’ve been able to intersect with. But they have a problem laying effective claim to Irish nationalism in opposition to a larger and better rooted nationalist movement. And they remain divided and badly organised.

In the by election Mini Mussolini is running, but so is Renua and so is an independent Covid crank. Aontu, while not far right, will also be competing for reactionary votes and have a higher profile and a more respectable image. I’m a little surprised that the IFP haven’t thrown their hat into the ring too.

Liked by 1 person

Tomboktu - June 20, 2021

Does anybody know if the balance rules mean the smaller parties get more air time from the broadcasters in a bye-election than they would in a nation-wide election — whether in journalist-led coverage or bye-electron political broadcasts?

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EWI - June 21, 2021

But they have a problem laying effective claim to Irish nationalism in opposition to a larger and better rooted nationalist movement.

Not least because they’re tied to the English far-right, which gives the game away (thinking of the continued failure of ‘Irexit’ movements, and the ever-present British emigrants therein).

Liked by 1 person

eoghan - June 23, 2021

I’m in the local PBP branch and this is the first election I’ve encountered people at the doors openly identifying as NP supporters. I don’t think they’ve been knocking on doors from what I’ve heard but their leaflet teams have been active, and worryingly large. Scary stuff.

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NFB - June 23, 2021

The breakthrough is probably inevitable on the current path, and may actually be accelerated by a left-wing government taking power in the not-too-distant future. But I think the typical dilution of votes among right-wing parties is more likely in this case.

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WorldbyStorm - June 23, 2021

It’s like PettyBurgess says above, the returns for them will be interesting. It would be great if the number of competing groups on that side of the spectrum suppress each others votes.

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3. Tomboktu - June 20, 2021

Saw Justin Barrett’s poster in town last night. The slogan is “Right So iFar.”

(I wonder if it’s meant to be a play on “So Far Right”.)

Liked by 2 people

banjoagbeanjoe - June 20, 2021

Right so iFar kinda rhymes with Rastafari. Going for the West Indian vote?

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4. The candidates for Dublin Bay South | The Cedar Lounge Revolution - June 25, 2021

[…] I think IEL’s analysis here holds very true. […]

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