Labour times

Anyone read the Phoenix this fortnight and its thoughts on the Dublin Bay South by-election? In a rather cynical piece it argues that:

The more traditional Labourites will have noticed that the Irish Times poll in DBS showed Bacik polling significantly better in the ABC social class than in the more working-class sectors of the electorate. That’s fine in DBS but it won’t do in Tallaght, Ballymun and elsewhere. Some party members argue that Labour should recognise it has lost the ‘blue collar’ vote to Sinn Féin and that it should keep its focus on liberal social issues like ‘Repeal the Eighth’. Bacik’s election has ensured that this argument will intensify.

Interesting point. It’s not simply a case, so, of how many constituencies does Labour have candidates like Bacik available in, but how many constituencies in Dublin, in particular, that candidates like Bacik will succeed. That’s a crucial distinction for that party – even accepting that currently its fortunes, even allowing for media hype, appear a little more rosy than they did a year ago. Then again I’ve always been sceptical about the idea that Labour was finished. It has a social base – in a political system where it is clear a lot of parties have a social base. The problem is that there’s no clear room for expansion for a party like Labour, or indeed the SDs, or indeed the Green Party as well (though perhaps that functions differently for them due to different dynamics). Or perhaps another way of putting it is that the LP can knock along, as can those other parties on something between 6 and 12 TDs – probably indefinitely, but regaining their old operating level is a radically larger challenge. 

As it happens the Phoenix casts a sceptical eye on idea of Bacik becoming deputy to the current leader – floated in the Sunday Times. But there’s a rough logic to it if the LP is determined to try to prise away socially liberal voters. But prise them from who? Sinn Féin? Hardly. Fine Gael? Well to an extent, but that weakens their usual coalition partner. The SDs et al? Likely yes, but these are slim enough pickings and it’s not as if the SDs don’t have a profile in that area all their own. 

And one other thought. The social liberal agenda has largely been achieved – what is left is not inconsiderable but it tends to be more along the lines of mopping up operations (assuming that no one is arguing, though some of us might think it not the worst idea in the world, a frontal assault on misogyny – though I have an instinct that that blended with outright class politics might deliver us to a better place in terms of that somewhat faster). Is social liberalism going to be the motor of political change into the future? That seems somewhat implausible. So taking that into account that leads back to – well, bread and butter politics, doesn’t it?