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If global civilisation collapses guess where’s a good place or five to be? July 31, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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From the Guardian a report on a study that has determined that:

New Zealand, Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland are the places best suited to survive a global collapse of society, according to a study.

The researchers said human civilisation was “in a perilous state” due to the highly interconnected and energy-intensive society that had developed and the environmental damage this had caused.

And:

A collapse could arise from shocks, such as a severe financial crisis, the impacts of the climate crisis, destruction of nature, an even worse pandemic than Covid-19 or a combination of these, the scientists said.

To assess which nations would be most resilient to such a collapse, countries were ranked according to their ability to grow food for their population, protect their borders from unwanted mass migration, and maintain an electrical grid and some manufacturing ability. Islands in temperate regions and mostly with low population densities came out on top.

Lovely. Though I wonder if there was a global crisis, say an asteroid strike or something along those lines, and people were fleeing from the European continent would any island state be able to do anything much in that situation to – ahem – ‘secure’ their borders. And should they? 

Places that did not suffer “the most egregious effects of societal collapses and are therefore able to maintain significant populations” have been described as “collapse lifeboats”, the study said.

New Zealand is better!

New Zealand was found to have the greatest potential to survive relatively unscathed due to its geothermal and hydroelectric energy, abundant agricultural land and low human population density.

Of course – and the piece notes that some billionaires have woken up to this – that’s all very well. But the study notes that global resilience has to improve. And I’d add forethought and effort to avoid the sort of calamities that it discusses is necessary. Or to put it a different way, let’s not have to head for the collapse lifeboats in the first place. 

BTW, why not Japan? Earthquakes? 

Comments»

1. Bagatelle's Unpaid Tutors - July 31, 2021

I saw that article and wondered who wrote that bit about Ireland because Ireland isn’t on that list. When the North Atlantic Current shuts down we’ll be like Siberia.

Nowhere on the planet is going to do well when climate collapse happens. Any place that is doing better than others will be swamped and those with a military will come and take from those without one.

GenX will be OK. We’ll be gone when the worst hits. Our children and theirs are utterly shafted bar a sudden, massive re-alignment of priorities and spending. The US just gave its bloated military another 82 billion and China is building a 110 silo nuke installation in its heartland beyond the reach of all but Trident.

So yay humanity! We are providing our own solution to Fermi’s paradox.

PS Settlers is awful, just awful and KSR’s Mars Trilogy is what yer looking for.

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2. Ex papal nuncio - July 31, 2021

Desperate effort from the Irish Times to push up property prices.

Liked by 1 person

EWI - July 31, 2021

Desperate effort from the Irish Times to push up D4 property prices.

FTFY. Of course, the real unknown for us is whether Plague Island tries to retake Ireland in the event of a general global collapse.

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WorldbyStorm - July 31, 2021

Stephen Baxter’s Moonseed in passing describes that dynamic precisely

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EWI - August 1, 2021

It’s easier to gin up than people expect. Day one is a planted story in the Telegraph musing about how unfair it is that the Irish have so much agricultural land and fish that we’re unwilling to ‘share’ with the UK.

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3. Starkadder - July 31, 2021

I remember once reading a science article about the aftermath of a nuclear exchange, which said “The inhabitants of New Zealand and Antarctica will be the last ones to die of radiation poisoning.” Kind of a grim comfort….

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yourcousin - July 31, 2021

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)

Thinking of this maybe? Good book, depressing, but not I suppose as depressing as what we’re doing to the planet.

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4. Phil - August 1, 2021

I wondered if Japan was omitted because it’s pretty densely populated already, but the same’s true for Britain. Ireland’s considerably more… um… gosh is that the time

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5. yourcousin - August 1, 2021

General note on this topic. I have at various points been preoccupied with this genre (civilizational collapse) for over 20 years.

Obviously preppers are a very real thing here. The mental load of the anxiety and fear based lens of looking at the world thinking about its collapse is no joke. It can be very unhealthy. Unfortunately climate scientists have been living this exact scenario play out in front of their eyes.

What I came down to is two things. One, solidarity. That’s the secret weapon against total collapse. Forget snowflakes saying they’re going to shoot their neighbors and take their stuff, but the actual true life honest to god acts of kindness and courage that we see time, and time again when catastrophic things happens. People are good, and when the shit hits the fan they take care of each other. So know your neighbors, look after them, and share the literal and metaphorical fruits of your bounties with other people. One, it literally does help others but obviously the act of giving has been proven in multiple scientific studies to bestow benefits on the giver as well.

Second point, never hurts being a bit of a redneck. Now that doesn’t mean that you HAVE to start listening to Dallas Frazier, although you should. It means that having some knowledge of self reliance and understanding how things work is never a bad thing. Soldering a pipe, swapping out the plumbing beneath the sink etc, is just good to know, save yourself time and hassle. Because things never break at a convenient time.

Food. Food is awesome. I love good food, in fact I spend a good portion of the year preoccupied on how to get my own. It’s a very calorie negative expenditure as well as super inefficient for all the other sources I have expended like fuel and money. That being said, I enjoy the entire experience from the planning a hunt, to daydreaming about to the actual time afield with friends or maybe just my dogs. But when people were being stupid at the start of the pandemic, my wife was pretty stoked that we had a freezer full of game in the garage. And we’ve even embarked on different ways to make it more palatable for to try things she might have a mental block over. So taking it to a processor instead of processing it myself etc have borne fruit as she likes some their sausages better etc.

The exact same thing happens with gardening. Obviously that’s a bigger draw here, but it’s not that big of a step to go from growing food to canning it. And even just the knowledge of said activity can give one an edge when it comes to peace of mind etc. Also these activities can be shared with others which we in the hunting community call venison diplomacy. And I think we can all agree that veggies straight out of the garden are the best and a great feeling to share that with folks. Which obviously ties into the first point, communal solidarity.

Look, whether or not we see the end of the world in our life time, I don’t know. But every time someone passes it’s the end of that world. And that is a reckoning we all must face at some point. Life is too short to give ourselves a neurosis thinking about end times. Obviously action is called for and we should answer it, but never get sucked into the apathetic feeling of hopelessness or nihilism that can often come when thinking about “The End”.

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EWI - August 1, 2021

Obviously preppers are a very real thing here. The mental load of the anxiety and fear based lens of looking at the world thinking about its collapse is no joke. It can be very unhealthy. Unfortunately climate scientists have been living this exact scenario play out in front of their eyes.

What I came down to is two things. One, solidarity. That’s the secret weapon against total collapse.

I think that’s very true. But we’re facing a century of increasing social and climate collapse, and even right now years of death and misery from a plague, and ‘solidarity’ seems not to be getting us very far in the face of corporate power and influence.

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yourcousin - August 2, 2021

I would argue solidarity in terms of following mask mandates and lock downs has been instrumental in staving off the worst of Covid.

But your point is taken, and is relevant. Capitalism and climate change won’t be defeated by growing tomatoes and then giving them to your neighbor. I readily acknowledge that. But I would argue that if you say, “it’s all hopeless” and retreat into your basement to live in fear and isolation you’re doing even less.

And when we do act, who are we doing it for if not our families and communities? Any action we do, is simply another form of solidarity.

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