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The election in Germany… September 26, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Paul Culloty notes the preliminary German Election results here. Liberius has a link to this excellent election returns/projections resource here.

The wafer thin majority of the SPD in Germany is interesting, albeit the likely outcome is another coalition with the CDU/CSU. And in a way where is the surprise that the continuity candidate for Germans happens to be the Finance Minister in the outgoing coalition – Vice-Chancellor Olaf Scholz? If you want more of the same in terms of a certain sort of politics of a certain sort, well, he’s your man, just as Angela Merkel was your woman. Or is that unfair?

But what are the implications should the early SDP lead hold, both for German, Europe and the EU? Oh, and social democracy itself? No pressure answering those questions!

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1. Liberius - September 27, 2021

In case anyone is wondering Die Linke have their three direct mandates (two in Berlin, one in Leipzig), so even if they fall short of the 5% threshold they get their list seats. That one in Leipzig though isn’t a particularly good case for FPTP, winning with only roughly 23%!

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2. tomasoflatharta - September 27, 2021

Die Linke (Left) suffered a significant electoral reverse. It gained 4.9% of the National vote, losing 4.3% compared with 2017. By comparison the SPD and the Greens gained 5.2% and 5.8% respectively. The big losers were the Christian Democrats (down 8.8%). The AfD Nazis also lost ground (down 2.3%). The free-market Liberals, the FDP, held their ground (up 0.7%). https://tomasoflatharta.wordpress.com/2021/09/27/2021-general-election-result-in-germany-preliminary-notes-will-berlin-go-red-red-green/.

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JIm Monaghan - September 27, 2021

Worse with 4.9%. “In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies via first votes or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide.” from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_German_federal_election#Electoral_system

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tomasoflatharta - September 27, 2021

Die Linke has won three mandates in the Bundestag, and therefore gains 39 seats.

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3. entdinglichung - September 27, 2021

good article on Scholz: https://jacobinmag.com/2021/09/olaf-scholz-german-election-merkel-credentials-scandals-chancellor-spd-coalition-machine-politics/

After becoming interior minister of Hamburg in 2001, a traditional Social Democratic stronghold, Scholz felt a right-wing populist party snapping at the SPD’s heels. Looking to be seen as tough on drug crime, he decreed that the emetic ipecacuanha could be forcibly deployed on suspected drug dealers — against warnings from the Hamburg Doctors Chamber that it could be fatal. Just a few months after this was introduced, nineteen-year-old Achidi John, from Cameroon, died after the syrup was brutally forced down a tube in his nose, against his resistance. His final words were “I will die,” but police failed to call an ambulance immediately. No one has been prosecuted to this day. The European Court of Human Rights declared forced emetics to be torture in 2006, by which time they had been used 530 times in Hamburg alone. Scholz glibly opined in a recent televised debate, “I didn’t see it as torture,” and called it “the mildest method” — despite another death being caused by the same syrup in nearby Bremen in 2005.

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4. entdinglichung - September 27, 2021

and the SSW, the party representing the Danish and North Frisian minorities in Germany’s northernmost state Schleswig-Holstein gained one seat, parties representing the “old” national minorities are exempted from the 5% threshhold

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5. Paul Culloty - September 27, 2021

The German public prefer Ampel to Jamaica by a 2:1 margin:

Intriguing conflict could arise within the SPD itself, as its official leadership duo of Esken and Walter-Bojans are considerably further to the left than Scholz:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany

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6. gregtimo - September 28, 2021

See the Rosa Luxemburg Page for prelim analysis in German .
Google ‘Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung’ . Linking to it seems to be blocked here.
I was shocked and saddened myself and preliminary analysis from Die Linke’s foundation above calls it a disaster (though it could easily have been a worse disaster if they hadn’t gotten the 3 direct mandates). With so many currents within the party there will no doubt be competing analysises . A determined optimistic might even say it was good that a party co-led by someone once associated with the SWP/IS (Janine Wissler) could manage to retain a federal presence at all, but it is a complicated debacle. My own take would be that the years of public argumentation between factions has taken its toll despite the last minute shows of unity. Their policy positions were sometimes contradictory as they sought to reconcile differences. Also the years of being in power in the Eastern States where sometimes cuts were implemented .
The impression of out of touch-ness among old supporters must have been considerable. In addition there are other factors such as reported Social Media Fake news campaigns. Though the AFD receded overall, they gained slightly in the Linke stronghold of Thuringia (where Linke lead the State government). In the East Linke didn’t relatively better in the 2 State level elections in Berlin (losing only 3%) and Mecklenberg-Pomerania, but lost large slices of support in the Federal throughout (on top of previous losses, except in Berlin). They also lost some of the new support they had gained in the West (eg dropping by more than half in NordRhein-Westphalia where Wagnenknecht lead the list). Though the opinion polls had them at 6 to 7% consistently, I think there was a last minute surge away from them maybe encouraged by social media efforts ?

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gregtimo - September 28, 2021

More analysis in German in the Left Party aligned berlin paper. Google Translated excerpt ;
‘In fact, according to analyzes by opinion pollers, the left lost 820,000 voters to the SPD and gained 180,000 former Social Democrats in the Bundestag election. In other words, more than half a million left-wing voters “net” still migrated to the SPD.

At the same time, 610,000 people who voted for the left in 2017 switched to the Greens, while 130,000 ex-Green voters opted for the left. That leaves a negative balance of 480,000 votes.

But that’s only half the story: The left was generally barely able to score with the first-time voters. And when investigating the causes, it should also be taken into account that an estimated 520,000 people who voted for the left four years ago have now not participated in the election at all. And that 330,000 people now voted for a small party in their place. From this form of protest against parties that are perceived as established and opportunistic, the satirical group “Die Party” is likely to have benefited in particular. The migration to the CDU, FDP and AfD is still a not insignificant factor overall: The left lost 160,000 voters each to the liberals and right-wing populists, and 110,000 to the Union parties.’
https://www.nd-aktuell.de/artikel/1157037.bundestagswahl-linke-soll-sich-neu-erfinden.html

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