A new party of the centre left?

A remarkable fact pointed to in the Phoenix this latest edition. Writing about new Senator Rebecca Moynihan, and quite a positive overview it provides – noting that she is liberal, heavily active in Dublin Bay South and comes from the working class – the following is noted:

She is, however, severely hampered by the low esteem in which Labour is still held, even in Dublin. The June Ipsos/MRBI poll gave it a paltry 3% support in Dublin with leader Alan Kelly particularly failing to impress the Dubs – a big drop from the 30% support it had in 2009, and well down on the 10% vote it scored in 2019.

And it suggests that there is a mountain to climb for Labour in constituencies like this in Dublin in particular – for example, currently in Dublin Bay South Sinn Féin’s Aonghus Ó Snodaigh gained 39% of first preferences in 2020. Surely that party will run two candidates next time around. And there’s a solid bloc of TDs in situ. Bríd Smith of PBP, Joan Collins of I4C and Patrick Costello of the GP who is on the left of that party. FF and FG do not present much of a challenge according to the Phoenix. 

It also notes that:

some in trade union circles still associated with Labour to push the view that Labour and the Social Democrats should combine. After all, Soc Dem co-leaders Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy were both former members of Labour and most commentators would be hard-pressed to find any significant difference in policy or philosophy between the two parties.

It also seems to suggest that these circles seek the LP to break with past austerity. Has anyone else heard of this? 

The Phoenix argues that such a ‘united’ party – perhaps including some GP left refugees – would combined have a good 12% or so of the vote, presenting a much more cohesive bloc. But it notes that the problem is that no one in this proposed mix is very keen to work with anyone else. 

And it is difficult to see that changing even as the time to the next election grows less. Perhaps closer in the predicament all these groups find themselves in with regard to a Sinn Féin likely to capitalise on its greater support and size will concentrate minds. Perhaps not.