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Speaking of polls: Scotland December 1, 2021

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.

Interesting one this (thanks to JH), the latest Scottish Parliament constituency polling from Scotland conducted by IpsosMori. The headline figures?

SNP: 52% (+2) Scottish Tories: 19% (-1) Scottish Labour: 17% (-5) Scottish Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1) Scottish Green Party: 3% (+1) Other: 3% (+2)

That figure for Scottish Labour is perhaps the key one. And that has implications for any future elections and not just the Scottish Parliament.


And there’s this:




1. Klassenkampf Treehugger - December 1, 2021

I wonder when Sturgeon will time her run?

AC (After Covid) I’d imagine. Who knows when that will be.


EWI - December 1, 2021

I wonder when Sturgeon will time her run?

The combined efforts of all the Little Englanders, Labour rightwingers and local ‘North Brits’ seem to be driving up the pro-independence vote, so there’s no hurry


2. Mat - December 1, 2021

It really is the SNP’s to lose now so timing will be everything. I think those poll figures will be quite soft at the moment and they’ll want to harden them up.

I really don’t see how Scottish Labour can get out of their rut pre- independence when a possible realignment will allow them a path to start coming back. Although that would be far from guaranteed.

Liked by 2 people

benmadigan - December 1, 2021

AFAIK Scottish labour is not independent of British Labour which, under Keir Starmer supports Brexit and the Union.
Since a large majority in Scotland voted against Brexit and have to undergo it 100% (unlike NI with its mitigating protocol) I’m not surprised Labour lost votes in the Poll.
As you said the picture might change after Independence when a Scottish Labour or Socialist Party might arise to cater for the Left vote in the country.


Wes Ferry - December 1, 2021

Scottish Labour is still shackled to Starmer and UK Labour, without a distinct identity and derided by all but the diehard faithful as a moribund branch office of London.

Liked by 1 person

Wes Ferry - December 1, 2021

FWIW: The Scottish Socialist Party is pro-independence but it has not commanded the same profile since Tommy Sheridan’s fall from grace and the subsequent fall-out and split.

Liked by 1 person

Mat - December 1, 2021

I dont think breaking away from UK Labour and/or switching to pro-independance at this stage in the game would help them electorally anyway.

I do think that it’s quite possible that once independence is achieved a new centre left party will arise, although far from certain but the assumption seems to be that the longer the SNP remain in power the more likely the centre left gloss is to fade from them.

Liked by 1 person

Wes Ferry - December 2, 2021

Breaking from Starmer and UK Labour and (at least) backing the right of the people of Scotland to have an independence referendum wouldn’t do Labour any harm. The SNP isn’t an easy choice for lefties in Scotland.

Liked by 1 person

3. sonofstan - December 1, 2021

Worth noting the regional vote:

SNP: 43% (+4 compared with 30 April – 3 May)
Scottish Conservatives: 20% (-3)
Scottish Labour: 15% (-3)
Scottish Green Party: 12% (unchanged)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 6% (-2)
The Alba Party: 1% (-1)
Other: 3% (+1)

Greens within the MoI of Labour on that one.

Liked by 2 people

4. irishelectionliterature - December 2, 2021

Is there any prospect of support for Independence reaching 60% or what percentage of the 45% against Independence could have their views changed?
Seems the Unionist parties (Tories, LibDems, Labour) have 41% in the above poll and also 41% in the Regional poll (mentioned by SOS in the comments). Or is all that vote pro UK?

Liked by 1 person

5. Mamaawori - January 3, 2022

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EWI - January 3, 2022

Hi, I’m hoping for a dream Green-Red-Green government, do your spells work for this?


Mamaawori - January 16, 2022

Yeah I can just text me


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