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Scotland’s independence referendum June 28, 2022

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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This should be interesting. Later today a statement is to be issued by First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.

Nicola Sturgeon will explain later how she plans to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.

The first minister will make a statement in the Scottish Parliament shortly after 14:00 BST.

She is expected to lay out her plan for holding a lawful vote in October next year, with or without the formal consent of UK ministers.

She has noted already that the re-election of the SNP and the Scottish Green Party as pro-independence parties forming the Scottish Government points to a democratic mandate for calling such a referendum. 

Entertainingly:

The UK government has held firm its view that “now is not the time” for another referendum.

And:

Scottish Secretary Alister Jack has said he does not consider the pro-independence majority at Holyrood a mandate because “less than a third of the electorate” voted for the SNP.

All fascinating when one compares and contrasts with how matters pertain in Northern Ireland with respect to the Protocol or Brexit. Apparently democratic mandates are protean things, assuming the shape of whatever necessity is defined by Tories. 

Comments»

1. NFB - June 28, 2022

An interesting scenario, if a Scottish referendum unapproved by Westminster passes. Presumably a unilateral declaration of independence wouldn’t be very far off, then various countries would be asked if they recognise such a breakaway. And possibly we might have a SF-led government by then…

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Paul Culloty - June 28, 2022

The crux of that scenario would be turnout, of course – even in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum that had over 90% Yes votes, only 43% of the total population voted, so a unilateral vote would probably require 67-70% attendance to be considered legitimate by all parties, a bar that unionists would be able to frustrate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum

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NFB - June 28, 2022

Very fair point.

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Colm B - June 28, 2022

The SNP will never go for a unilateral declaration of independence, nor will they hold a referendum that is not clearly legal.
That’s just a fact, not a good thing necessarily.
If they could hold a non binding referendum legally, they would, but the unionist parties would boycott it and so would 40-50% if the population. So the SNP would be left holding half a baby and no further on.
These are not reasons to retreat or give up, just the reality we currently face. The SNP are ultra-cautious; they have to be seen to be doing something to advance independence but they are terrified of a mass movement that they can’t control.

So the only thing that will break the deadlock is a renewal of the mass independence movement that can sweep ahead of the SNP. Of course, despite spineless Starmer etc, it is also possible that a change of gov in the UK might lead to a legal referendum but that’s a long shot.

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6to5against - June 28, 2022

A change in government having an effect is along shot in the the timeframe up to Oct 2023, But it surely isn’t a long shot overall?

Without any seats in Scotland, a LP majority in the UK is very improbable, but its not hard to imagine a scenario were there is a LP/SNP majority. If that happens, the SNP would have a few options, whether to seek coalition or to allow a Labour minority government to form, with support on key issues. But surely, whatever they do, it would result in a new referendum within a few years?

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Colm B - June 28, 2022

Not a chance in hell that they would join a coalition, nor would Labour ever agree to one but it is possibly that they would force a minority Labour or Lib-Lab gov to allow a legally binding referendum, in exchange for minority gov support.

On the other hand a minority Labour gov might be able to ignore the SNPs demands, on the premise that the SNP would have to keep them in power anyway since Scottish voters wouldn’t countenance anything that led to a Tory gov.

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Wes Ferry - June 28, 2022

Union Jack Starmer has already ruled out having SNP as a coalition partner, hasn’t he?

I tend to half agree with Colm B that Labour would put it up to the SNP if Labour were within reach of toppling Tories to support them as required or be blamed by voters for another unbearable term of Tory rule over Scotland as well as rUK but with no independence referendum given.

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2. NFB - June 28, 2022
WorldbyStorm - June 28, 2022

Keeping it legal so far but putting pressure on London too. Good.

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3. Wes Ferry - June 28, 2022

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4. sonofstan - June 28, 2022

Meanwhile, the Tories are introducing legislation to overturn the Sennedd’s workers’ rights law: Plaid putting it up to Welsh Labour as to whether they accept this. Is there even at least a slim possibility that a free Wales could sneak in ahead of an independent Scotland – or a united Ireland?

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Mat - June 29, 2022

No

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