Election projections

Here’s the latest projections from Election Projections.

SF 63 NC

FF 39 +1

FG 37 -2

Ind 10 +2

SD 4 NC

PBP/SOL 3 NC

LAB 1 -1

GP 1 NC

AONTU 1 NC

R2C 0 NC

An interesting Dáil. Of course this is based on 160 seats and as EP notes there’s no end of fun to be had once new numbers reflecting larger populations on foot of the census come into effect. But, on the face of it there’s a better chance for FFG in tandem with a few Independents making a run for it (76 between them and needing 5 or more) than for SF which would need 18 additional TDs to get to 80+1). And if the figures are correct and the GP was whittled down to 1 TD (worse than its performance in 2016) who would be keen to work with FFG again? But a government will need to be formed. And beyond that? If FF was ahead of FG there’d be considerable pressure for them not to go into coalition with Sinn Féin. And an FG/SF coalition. Implausible.

Note too the slight rise in the Independent numbers.