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Election projections July 5, 2022

Posted by WorldbyStorm in Uncategorized.
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Here’s the latest projections from Election Projections.

SF 63 NC

FF 39 +1

FG 37 -2

Ind 10 +2

SD 4 NC

PBP/SOL 3 NC

LAB 1 -1

GP 1 NC

AONTU 1 NC

R2C 0 NC

An interesting Dáil. Of course this is based on 160 seats and as EP notes there’s no end of fun to be had once new numbers reflecting larger populations on foot of the census come into effect. But, on the face of it there’s a better chance for FFG in tandem with a few Independents making a run for it (76 between them and needing 5 or more) than for SF which would need 18 additional TDs to get to 80+1). And if the figures are correct and the GP was whittled down to 1 TD (worse than its performance in 2016) who would be keen to work with FFG again? But a government will need to be formed. And beyond that? If FF was ahead of FG there’d be considerable pressure for them not to go into coalition with Sinn Féin. And an FG/SF coalition. Implausible.

Note too the slight rise in the Independent numbers.

Comments»

1. Paul Culloty - July 5, 2022

Interesting to see that the Mica Action Group plans to register as a political party – one would imagine they would affect SF and Pringle most, given that both tend to be beneficiaries of protest votes?

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - July 5, 2022

I’d imagine that could steal votes from those TDs.

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2. banjoagbeanjoe - July 5, 2022

How come FF come out ahead of FG when polls show FG fairly consistently afew points ahead of FF?

Liked by 1 person

WorldbyStorm - July 5, 2022

That’s a good question – is it a dispersal of seats on the ground, local conditions?

Liked by 1 person


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